The latest data from the ABS on employment trends continues to show a level of unpredictability. Whilst most analysts were expecting no change, the seasonally adjusted rate rose to 6%, up from 5.8%, whilst the trend smoothed data read 5.8% down from 5.9% in December. So you can spin the story either way…. though I expect most will select the lower results contained in the seasonally adjusted series. We prefer to follow the trend data which irons out some of the random movements which the current method creates.
Indeed, the ABS tell us that their estimates are based on a sample survey. Published estimates and movements are subject to sampling variability. Standard errors give a measure of sampling variability. The interval bounded by two standard errors is the 95% confidence interval, which provides a way of looking at the variability inherent in estimates. There is a 95% chance that the true value of the estimate lies within that interval.
In other words, it is not clear if the small movements are significant. We suspect not. However the apparent miss may trouble the market.
The ABS tell us that in trend terms employment increased 19,800 to 11,909,900 in the month, unemployment decreased 4,400 to 739,400, unemployment rate decreased less than 0.1 pts to 5.8%, based on unrounded estimates, participation rate remained steady at 65.2% and monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 3.6 million hours to 1,652.7 million hours.
In seasonally adjusted terms, employment decreased 7,900 to 11,894,500 in the month, full-time employment decreased 40,600 to 8,185,800 and part-time employment increased 32,700 to 3,708,700,unemployment increased 30,200 to 761,400, the number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 25,600 to 544,100 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 4,600 to 217,300. The unemployment rate increased 0.2 pts to 6.0%, participation rate remained steady at 65.2%. and monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 10.9 million hours to 1,656.0 million hours.
