More evidence of upward pressure on mortgage rates on the back of positive economic news. All this adds weight to the view that Australian mortgage rates are more likely to rise down the track.
US Mortgage ratesmoved higher, following stronger economic data at home and abroad. In general, stronger economic data implies better growth, higher stock prices and higher rates. Although the traditional levels of correlation between data and rates have been thrown off for various reasons over the past year, we still see examples of that correlation from time to time. Today was one of those days.
Economic data was stronger in Europe and Asia during the overnight session. This resulted in bond markets moving toward higher rates even before the domestic economic data came out. Today’s most significant domestic data was the ADP Employment report, which showed payroll creation of 250k per month compared to forecasts calling for 190k. This speaks to the potential for Friday’s official numbers from the Labor Department (more important than ADP) to stage a similar performance (which would be bad for rates, all things being equal).
In today’s case, bond traders weren’t ready to send rates straight to the moon. Bonds (which dictate rates) recovered most of their losses by the afternoon. Several mortgage lenders adjusted rate sheets accordingly, but on average, today’s rates are the highest since last Tuesday. Specifically, the average lender is quoting 4.0-4.125% on top tier scenarios (30yr fixed, conventional).
