Finance Through a Fintech is Fast, but Ask These Questions First

Interesting article in the BRW by Neil Slonim, of thebankdoctor.com that aligns with my earlier post on Online Lending for SMEs.

There has been considerable recent discussion about fintechs injecting much needed competition into the SME lending market. For those unfamiliar with this new word, fintech (financial technology) is a line of business using software for the purpose of disrupting incumbent players such as banks. ASIC Chairman Greg Medcraft recently said “the time is ripe for digital disruption and ASIC wants to make it easier for fintechs to navigate the regulatory system”. Notwithstanding these encouraging developments it is still early days and small business owners would be wise to resist the lure of quick and easy money from fintechs until they really understand how they work.

The attraction of fintechs is the expectation of a “quick yes” via a streamlined online approval process. Fintechs usually offer business loans between $5k and $300k and terms generally range from 7 days to 12 months. They make funds available in a matter of days and sometimes even hours. Rates vary from around 9 per cent to 30 per cent and often well beyond. Most loans are made without property security. Fintechs are generally not suited for businesses that have requirements for long-term debt and if you have property security you will get a better rate elsewhere.

Some business owners will try a fintech if the bank either rejects them or can’t make a decision in the time frame required. Others will by-pass the bank based on a preconceived belief that the banks wont help them.

For better or worse most SMEs know what to expect when dealing with banks. They know the big banks have been around forever and have large and strong balance sheets but this new breed of lender is an entirely different species.

Unlike the banking sector where four well known players and their offshoots control around 90 per cent of the market there are already many fintechs in the SME space with new entrants constantly popping up as entrepreneurs see the opportunity to disrupt the big four oligopoly. As more players enter this field, it will be interesting to see how they go about developing and conveying a distinctive customer value proposition.

Australian owned fintechs currently operating in the SME space include Moula, Prospa, getcapital, and ucapital. The US online lender Ondeck is establishing a local operation in conjunction with MYOB and some well-known local investors. The barriers to entry are relatively low and the level of regulation is not as stringent as for banks. Issues such as funding, liquidity and fraud will no doubt come to the fore when the first fintech fails. Liquidity events could lead to unscrupulous fintechs embarking on a Ponzi scheme but we can safely assume that no fintech will be the beneficiary of a ‘too big to fail’ government bailout. If you borrow from a fintech that gets into difficulty how would you refinance a loan that a bank wouldn’t touch?

Borrowing from fintechs is expensive due to relatively high funding costs plus high default rates. Ondeck US’s operation has a default rate of 6 to 7 per cent and when an unsecured loan falls into default, the lender’s recovery prospects plummet.

Potential borrowers need to be mindful of all these issues. So how does a business decide if fintech borrowing is right for them and if so which is the most suitable lender? Here are three tips for SMEs to consider:

1. DO YOUR DUE DILIGENCE

Do your DD as you would if you were looking for any new major supplier or stakeholder. Some of your queries will be able to be satisfied via the lender’s website but if you’re not sure about anything, call them. Ask questions like:

•Who are your shareholders and management?

•What qualifications and experience do you have?

•How much capital have you committed?

•Can I speak to some existing clients?

•How reliable is your funding source?

2. BE SURE YOU UNDERSTAND AND CAN AFFORD TO PAY THE FEES

Ensure you understand all the fees and charges. For instance, fintechs often quote an interest rate based on the term of the transaction so a 3 per cent rate which might look fair to you could in fact be 3 per cent on a loan of 30 days which represents an annualised rate of interest of 36 per cent.

Once you understand all the costs, re-visit your forecasts to ensure you can still make an acceptable profit. No point in working just for your financier!

3. CONSIDER WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THINGS GO WRONG.

You probably have a good idea of what happens if you cant meet your obligations to a bank. How would this work with a fintech? How open would they be to extending the term of your financing arrangements if for instance a debtor is slow to pay? What dispute resolution procedures do they have?

HOW ARE THE BANKS RESPONDING?

The banks recognise they are burdened with legacy cost structures that place them at a disadvantage relative to disruptors who have lower cost and more scalable systems. They are acutely aware of the threat and are monitoring developments closely. Fintechs are not yet taking market share from the banks but clearly the potential exists for serious inroads once this business model becomes established.

In time banks will respond by acquiring the better structured and performing fintechs. Another bank strategy will be to take equity in start up fintechs backed by big name players with deep pockets as Westpac has done with the online personal lender Society One.

It’s still early days but over time fintechs will become a significant alternative funding source for SMEs. In the meantime SMEs contemplating borrowing from a fintech would be well advised to first ensure they understand exactly what they are getting themselves into.

Neil Slonim is a banking advisor and commentator and founder of theBankDoctor.com.au , a not for profit online source of independent banking advice for SMEs.

Mirrored with permission of the author.

Retail Sales Growth Slows In March

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures show that Australian retail turnover rose 0.3 per cent in March following a rise of 0.7 per cent in February 2015, seasonally adjusted.

In seasonally adjusted terms the largest contributor to the rise was department stores (3.8 per cent), clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (2.2 per cent), food retailing (0.4 per cent) and other retailing (0.1 per cent). There were falls in household goods retailing (-1.0 per cent) and cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (-1.1 per cent).

In seasonally adjusted terms there were rises in Queensland (0.7 per cent), New South Wales (0.3 per cent), Victoria (0.2 per cent), South Australia (0.3 per cent) and Tasmania (0.5 per cent). There were falls in Western Australia (-0.3 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (-0.5%) and the Northern Territory (-0.8 per cent).

The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.3 per cent in March 2015 following a 0.4 per cent rise in February 2015. Through the year, the trend estimate rose 4.3 per cent in March 2015 compared to March 2014.

Online retail turnover contributed 3.0 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms.

Why Online Lending Will Take Off With Small Business Owners

Interesting recent article from Fortune Insider with a relevant perspective on the potential for online lending for small business though from a US perspective.

At a minimum, banks are perfect partners in the new game.

Earlier this month, the momentum behind the online lending industry was in full view at LendIt—an industry gathering that didn’t exist four years ago, but grew from about 700 attendees last year to more than 2,500 this year. What was clear is that it’s no longer a question of whether these disruptors will change the game in small business lending, but how quickly.

In fact, in his remarks at LendIt attendees in New York City, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers predicted that online lenders could eventually capture upwards of 70% of the small business lending market. That may be an overly optimistic prediction, but one thing is clear online lending is a welcome innovation in the small business sector.

Dozens of new companies have jumped in from FundBox to Square, joining longer term players like OnDeck, Lending Club and Funding Circle. At the same time, the entrance of big money from hedge funds and institutional investors has created an energy that has gotten the attention of long-time observers of the financial industry.

Small business owners were the hardest hit in the Great Recession due in part to their reliance on available credit. In the years following, the sluggishness of the overall economic recovery in many ways was a result of these important job creators still not being able to readily access the capital they needed from their traditional sources – banks.

Many banks make loans today pretty much the way they did 50 years ago, relying on expensive personal underwriting and a mountain of paperwork. That makes small dollar loans not economical. Yet, loans under $250,000 are what most small businesses want. Add to that, the number of community banks – a critical source of small business loans – has been shrinking, from 14,000 in 1984 to less than 7,000 today.

As is often the case throughout our nation’s history, in step the entrepreneurs with dozens of new companies entering the lending space with a new approach. Much of the innovation behind these new startups is based on using technology to deliver a more streamlined application and approval process. They use new algorithms to access and analyze more data from different sources about a borrower than the traditional bank.

Today borrowers fill out an online application that typically takes 30-60 minutes. They get a response within hours and can be funded in days. This customer service is winning the attention of frustrated small business owners who on average were spending 26 hours on the loan process and waiting weeks or even months for an answer from a bank. The word is beginning to spread. In a recent Federal Reserve survey 18% of small business owners reported seeking capital online with a 38% approval rate, compared to a 31% approval rate at large national banks.

Ease of use doesn’t grow an industry all on its own, though, but available capital does. Yes, interestingly, what’s really fueling the growth of accessible capital for small business owners is accessible capital itself. Peer-to-peer capital has given way to hedge funds and institutions looking for yield, and a hungry finance industry ready to package and syndicate the funding.

Despite the bright outlook, some worrisome questions remain. What happens to all this new capital in a downturn or when yield is available elsewhere? Can the new algorithms really predict which small businesses will succeed and which will fail? What about the high cost of some of these new loans? Regulation is largely absent in this new industry. How can small businesses really know how to pick the right product and do they know much they are paying?

How will traditional banks respond? Don’t count them out yet. There are several factors that actually could give the established players a competitive advantage. For instance, while new online lenders are spending considerable sums to find small business customers, traditional banks have thousands of those customers and have mountains of data about them.

At a minimum, banks are perfect partners in the new game. They can connect customers to the online platforms, share information for the credit approval processes and they can even put their capital to work as investors.

Needless to say, transformation is coming, and it’s coming in an industry that is not known for it. As Summers noted last week, former Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volker once pointed out that the only useful innovation in finance in the past generation has been the ATM.

All indicators are that this transformation will only continue to pick up its pace. As it does, one thing is clear – while investors may see gains, in all likelihood, small businesses will be the biggest winners.

Hot Investment Lending – AFG

AFG announced their April 2015 Mortgage Index statistics today. It further confirms the momentum in the investment property sector, in both Sydney and Melbourne.

The housing market’s strong 2015 performance continued during April with AFG processing total mortgages of $4,380 million for the month. This compares with $3,674 million in April 2014 and is a record for the month of April. In keeping with seasonal trends, the figure is somewhat lower than the $5,236 million recorded for March, because of the Easter holidays, when property markets are typically more subdued.

The result reflected increasing Victoria investor activity, combined with already strong NSW investor activity. AFG processed a higher proportion of home loans for investors in Victoria last month than ever before at 40.9%, up from 36.7% in March 2015, and 36.9% in April 2014. In NSW, the proportion of investor mortgages remained around its all-time high of 52.8% of applications.

Mark Hewitt, General Manager of Sales and Operations says: “Investor activity in both Sydney and Melbourne is now at the highest levels we have recorded in 21 years. Elsewhere it’s a different story – for example in Western Australia, where first home buyers comprise a much larger proportion of buyers than elsewhere, property investment cooled somewhat last month.”

Queensland property investment rose to 36.7% in April from 33.3% in March, in South Australia there was an increase from 37.7% to 38.2%, and in WA figures softened from 33.6% to 32.8%. First home buyer figures remained at low levels across all of Australia, except for WA, comprising just 2% of new mortgages in NSW, 6.4% in SA, 7.7% in QLD, 8.9% in VIC and 18% in WA.

The proportion of new borrowers choosing fixed home loans was 13.6%, continuing an overall decline since October 2014 when 18.2% of borrowers chose to fix their rates.

New Home Sales at Four-Year High – HIA

The latest result for the HIA New Home Sales Report, a survey of Australia’s largest volume builders, shows strong growth in March 2015, taking sales volumes to their highest level since early 2010. Total seasonally adjusted new home sales increased by 4.4 per cent in the month of March, with an 11.3 per cent rise in multi-unit sales and a 2.6 per cent rise in detached house sales.

In March 2015 private detached house sales increased by 5.9 per cent in Victoria, 4.2 per cent in New South Wales and also 4.2 per cent in Western Australia. Private detached house sales declined by 5.8 per cent in South Australia and by 2.3 per cent in Queensland. In the March 2015 quarter, detached house sales increased in Victoria (+5.2 per cent) and Queensland (+4.3 per cent). Elsewhere sales declined: in WA (-6.4 per cent), NSW (-3.6 per cent) and SA (-1.4 per cent).

HIA-To-March-2015

CBA 3Q Trading Update – Is Pressure Rising?

The CBA released their 3Q update today.  We see the same signs of margin pressure and likely slower growth ahead, as in the recent results from ANZ and Westpac. We think the sector will be under more pressure going forwards. Extra capital requirements will also bear down in coming months. Provisions, at the bottom of the cycle were up.

Unaudited cash earnings for the three months ended 31 March 2015 (“the quarter”) were approximately $2.2 billion. Statutory net profit on an unaudited basis for the same period was also approximately $2.2 billion, with non-cash items treated on a consistent basis to prior periods. This was below market expectations.

Revenue growth was similar to 1H15. Group Net Interest Margin continued to be impacted by competitive pressures by around 3 basis points. Trading income remained strong; Expense growth was higher in the quarter, impacted by growing regulatory, compliance and remediation costs, including those associated with a number of legislative reforms (FATCA, FoFA, Stronger Super, LAGIC), provisioning for the advice review program and ongoing regulatory engagement.

Across key markets, home lending volume growth continued to track slightly below system, consistent with the Group’s underweight position in the higher growth investment and broker segments; core business lending growth remained at mid-single digit levels (pa), household deposits growth was particularly strong in the quarter, with balances growing at an annual rate of over 10 per cent; in Wealth Management, Funds under Administration and Assets under Management grew 7 and 8 per cent respectively in the quarter, reflecting strong investment performance, net inflows and FX gains; insurance inforce premiums increased 3 per cent on the prior quarter; ASB business and rural lending growth remained above system and home loan growth was stronger Credit quality remained sound.

In the retail portfolios, home loan and credit card arrears were broadly flat, whilst seasonal factors contributed to higher personal loan arrears. Troublesome and impaired assets were lower at $6.4 billion. Total loan impairment expense was $256 million in the quarter, up from $204m a year earlier, with strong provisioning levels maintained and the economic overlay unchanged. Home loan arrears were higher in Bankwest than the Australian and New Zealand businesses.

CBA-Home-Loan-Arrears-May-2015The Group’s Basel III Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) APRA ratio was 8.7 per cent as at 31 March 2015, an increase of 20 basis points on December 2014 after excluding the impact of the 2015 interim dividend (which included the issuance of shares in respect of the Dividend Reinvestment Plan). The Group’s Basel III Internationally Comparable CET1 ratio as at 31 March 2015 was 12.7 per cent. They will need to raise more capital on these ratios than we expected.

CBA-Capital-May-2015  Funding and liquidity positions remained strong, with customer deposit funding at 64 per cent and the average tenor of the wholesale funding portfolio at 3.9 years.

CBA-Deposit-Funding-May-2015Liquid assets totalled $144 billion with the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) standing at 122 per cent. The Group completed $8.5 billion of new term issuance in the quarter.

Basel Compliance Not Linked To Bank Performance

An IMF Working Paper was released today, entitled “Does Basel Compliance Matter for Bank Performance?”.  They conclude that overall Basel compliance has no association with bank efficiency. This is important because the burden of compliance with international regulatory standards is becoming increasingly onerous, and financial institutions worldwide are developing compliance frameworks to enable management to meet more stringent regulatory standards. As regulators refine and improve their approach and methodologies, banks must respond to more stringent compliance requirements. This has implications for risk management and resource allocation, and, ultimately, on bank performance.

However, there is no evidence that any common set of best practices is universally appropriate for promoting well-functioning banks. Regulatory structures that will succeed in some countries may not constitute best practice in other countries that have different institutional settings. There is no broad cross-country evidence as to which of the many different regulations and supervisory practices employed around the world work best. As a consequence, the question of how regulation affects bank performance remains unanswered. Regulators around the world are still grappling with the question of what constitutes good regulation and which regulatory reforms they should undertake.

The global financial crisis underscored the importance of regulation and supervision to a well-functioning banking system that efficiently channels financial resources into investment. In this paper, we contribute to the ongoing policy debate by assessing whether compliance with international regulatory standards and protocols enhances bank operating efficiency. We focus specifically on the adoption of international capital standards and the Basel Core Principles for Effective Bank Supervision (BCP). The relationship between bank efficiency and regulatory compliance is investigated using the (Simar and Wilson 2007) double bootstrapping approach on an international sample of publicly listed banks. Our results indicate that overall BCP compliance, or indeed compliance with any of its individual chapters, has no association with bank efficiency.

From a theoretical perspective, scholars’ predictions as to the effects of regulation and supervision on bank performance are conflicting. The greater part of policy literature on financial regulation has been inspired by the broader debate on the role of government in the economy. The two best-known opposing camps in this field are the public interest and the private interest defenders, who both, nonetheless, agree on the assumption of market failure. For the public interest camp, governments regulate banks to ensure better functioning and thus more efficient banks, ultimately for the benefit of the economy and the society. For the private interest camp, regulation is a product of an interaction between supply; it is thus the outcome of private interests who use the coercive power of the state to extract rents at the expense of other groups.

According to the public interest view, which largely dominated thinking during the 20th century, regulators have sufficient information and enforcement powers to promote the public interest. In this setting, well-conceived regulation can exert a positive effect on firm behavior by fostering competition and encouraging effective governance in the sector. In contrast, according to the private interest view, efficiency may be distorted because firms are constrained to channel resources to special-interest groups. This implies that regulation may not play a role in improving bank efficiency. Kane (1977) suggested that these conflicting views help frame the complex motivations underlying regulatory policies. He argues that officials are subject to pressures to respond to both public and private interests, and that the outcome of such an oscillation depends on incentives. Swings in the approach to regulation reflect the interplay of industry and political forces and the occurrence of exogenous shocks (crises for example). These complex interactions may have conflicting effects on the efficiency of the banking system.

We focus on the adoption of international capital standards and the Basel Core Principles for Effective Bank Supervision (BCP). These principles, issued in 1997 by the Basel Committee on Bank Supervision, have since become the global standards for bank regulation, widely adopted by regulators in developed and developing countries. The severity of the 2007–09 financial crisis has cast doubt on the effectiveness of these global standards; regulatory reforms are under way in several countries. The initial crisis-induced assessment of regulatory failure is now giving way to a more complex regulatory dialogue and detailed evaluation of the principles underlying international regulatory standards as well as the implications of their adoption, in terms of banks’ safety and soundness. In addition, the burden of compliance with international regulatory standards is becoming increasingly onerous, and financial institutions worldwide are developing compliance frameworks to enable management to meet more stringent regulatory standards. As regulators refine and improve their approach and methodologies, banks must respond to more stringent compliance requirements. This has implications for risk management and resource allocation, and, ultimately, on bank performance.

On the regulators’ side, excessive reliance on systematic adherence to a checklist of regulations and supervisory practices might hamper regulators’ monitoring efforts and prevent a deeper understanding of banks’ risk-taking. More specifically, to shed some light on the aforementioned issues, we aim to answer the following questions: (i) Does compliance with international regulatory standards affect bank operating efficiency? (ii) By what mechanisms does regulatory compliance affect bank performance? (iii) To what extent do bank-specific and country-specific characteristics soften or amplify the impact of regulatory compliance on bank performance? (iv) Does the impact of regulatory compliance increase with level of development?

Building on the IMF and the World Bank Basel Core Principles for Effective Bank Supervision (BCP) assessments conducted from 1999 to 2010, we evaluate how compliance with BCP affects bank performance for a sample of 863 publicly listed banks drawn from a broad cross-section of countries. We focus on publicly listed banks, on the assumption that these institutions are subject to more stringent regulatory controls and compliance requirements. This focus should also enhance cross-country comparability because these banks share internationally adopted accounting standards. Further, we categorize the sample countries by both economic development and geographic region.

Our results indicate that overall BCP compliance, or indeed compliance with any of its individual chapters, has no association with bank efficiency. This result holds after controlling for bank-specific characteristics, the macroeconomic environment, institutional quality, and the existing regulatory framework, and adds further support to the argument that although compliance has little effect on bank efficiency, increasing regulatory constraints may prevent banks from efficiently allocating resources. When only banks in emerging market and developing countries are considered, we find some evidence of a negative relation with specific chapters that relate to the effectiveness of the existing supervisory framework and the ability of supervisors to carry out their duties. However, these results need to be treated with caution, because they may also reflect the inability of assessors to provide a consistent cross-country evaluation of effective banking regulation.

RBA Cuts To Record Low – 2%

The RBA cut the cash rate by 25 basis points today, in the hope that i) households who are already carrying record debt will be persuaded to spend and borrow more, and ii) the “quiet word” from the regulator will keep a cap on exploding house prices in Sydney by controlling exuberant investment lending.  The journey back from this record low will be low and painful, and if a real crisis hits, there is so little left in the locker. Worth re-reading the recent Fitch commentary on the US who are facing a high debt, higher interest rate future.

At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.0 per cent, effective 6 May 2015.

The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, but commodity prices have declined over the past year, in some cases sharply. These trends appear largely to reflect increased supply, including from Australia. Australia’s terms of trade are falling nonetheless.

The Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing its policy rate later this year, but some other major central banks are stepping up the pace of unconventional policy measures. Hence, financial conditions remain very accommodative globally, with long-term borrowing rates for sovereigns and creditworthy private borrowers remarkably low.

In Australia, the available information suggests improved trends in household demand over the past six months and stronger growth in employment. Looking ahead, the key drag on private demand is likely to be weakness in business capital expenditure in both the mining and non-mining sectors over the coming year. Public spending is also scheduled to be subdued. The economy is therefore likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. Inflation is forecast to remain consistent with the target over the next one to two years, even with a lower exchange rate.

Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending, and credit is recording moderate growth overall, with stronger lending to businesses of late. Growth in lending to the housing market has been steady over recent months. Dwelling prices continue to rise strongly in Sydney, though trends have been more varied in a number of other cities. The Bank is working with other regulators to assess and contain risks that may arise from the housing market. In other asset markets, prices for equities and commercial property have been supported by lower long-term interest rates.

The Australian dollar has declined noticeably against a rising US dollar over the past year, though less so against a basket of currencies. Further depreciation seems both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices.

At today’s meeting, the Board judged that the inflation outlook provided the opportunity for monetary policy to be eased further, so as to reinforce recent encouraging trends in household demand.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment

An IMF working paper was released today entitled “The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment:Evidence from Advanced Economies”. Six years after the global financial crisis, the recovery in many advanced economies remains tepid. This is highly relevant to the current Australian economic and budget debate.

There are now worries that demand will remain persistently weak — a possibility that has been described as “secular stagnation”. One response that is being considered (see for example the European Commission 2014) is an increase in public infrastructure investment, which could provide a much-needed fillip to demand and is one of the few remaining policy levers available to support growth. But there are open questions about the size of the public investment multipliers and the long-term returns on public capital, both of which play a role in determining how public-debt-to-GDP ratios will evolve in response to higher public investment. To assess appropriately the benefits and costs of increasing public investment in infrastructure, it is critical to determine what macroeconomic impact public investment will have. The paper attempts to shed more light on this subject.

What are the macroeconomic effects of public investment? To what extent does it raise output, both in the short and the long term? Does it increase the public-debt-to-GDP ratio? How do these effects vary with key characteristics of the economy, such as the degree of economic slack, the efficiency of public investment, and the way the investment is financed? To address these questions, the paper examined the historical evidence on the macroeconomic effects of public investment in 17 OECD economies over the 1985–2013 period.

They found that such investment raises output in both the short and long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment, with limited effect on the public debt ratio. They also found that these effects vary with a number of mediating factors. The effects of public investment are particularly strong when there is slack in the economy and monetary accommodation. In such cases, the boost to output from higher government investment may exceed the debt issued to finance the investment. Government projects are more effective in boosting output in countries with higher efficiency of public investment. Finally, the mode of financing investment matters. They find suggestive evidence that debt-financed projects have larger expansionary effects than budget-neutral investments financed by raising taxes or cutting other government spending.

The findings suggest that for economies with clearly identified infrastructure needs and efficient public investment processes and where there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, there is a strong case for increasing public infrastructure investment. Moreover, evidence suggests that increasing public infrastructure investment will be particularly effective in providing a fillip to aggregate demand and expanding productive capacity in the long run, without raising the debt-to-GDP ratio, if it is debt financed. Finally, the results show how critical increasing investment efficiency is to mitigating the possible trade-off between higher output and higher public-debt-to-GDP ratios. Thus a key priority in many economies, particularly in those with relatively low efficiency of public investment, should be to raise the quality of infrastructure investment by improving the public investment process.

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