Preliminary auction clearance rates ease slightly to 76.4 per cent

CoreLogic says so far this week, 1,683 capital city auction results have been reported to CoreLogic, resulting in a preliminary auction clearance rate of 76.4 per cent across the combined capital cities.

This week, 2,026 total auctions were held across the capital cities, higher than last week, when 1,899 auctions were held, but remaining lower than one year ago when 2,654 capital city properties went under the hammer.  Clearance rates are still tracking above 70 per cent, which they have done since the last week in July.  This week’s preliminary clearance rate is down slightly from last week’s clearance rate of 77.1 per cent, which was the highest clearance rate recorded for the year to date.  At the same time last year the clearance rate was 71.2 per cent.

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Strong Auction Clearance Results Again Today

The preliminary data from APM PriceFinder suggests another strong set of results, with strong clearance rates, on higher listings (though volume was down compared with this time last year). Melbourne cleared 78.4% compared with 77% last week, and 73.2% last year. Nationally, the clearance rate was 76.8% compared with 74.9% last week, on 1,613 listings compared with 1,448 last week. The same week last year cleared 70% from 2,129 properties.

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In Brisbane, 54% of the 110 listings sold, whilst in Adelaide, 77% of the 46 listings cleared and in Canberra, 78% of the 44 listings sold. Sydney cleared 77.1% of 567 properties, compared with 77% of 537 last week and 69.3% of 847 properties a year ago.  Further confirmation there is still momentum in the market.

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The cost to rent in Australia is still falling

From Business Insider.

The cost to rent in Australia continues to fall, according to new data released by CoreLogic.

In the group’s latest rent review, released monthly, average rental rates fell by 0.3% across Australia’s capital cities in August, leaving the decline on a year earlier at 0.5%.

The decline registered in August was identical to that seen in July.

In dollar terms, the average weekly rent now stands at $481, the lowest level seem since November 2014. From the record high of May last year, the average rent has fallen by 1.4%.

By type of dwelling, the average combined capital city house rent now stands at $484 per week, slightly ahead of units at $466 per week.

Over the past year housing rents have fallen by 0.8%, while those for units have increased by 0.7%. Both sit at record lows.

Source: CoreLogic

The annual fall in the headline index reflects the fact that there are currently more houses than units available for rent in Australia.

This table from CoreLogic shows the change in rents seen across individual capitals over the past month, quarter and year. It also shows current rental yields, comparing them to the levels of a year earlier. Like the annual change in rents, they too sit at record lows.

Though combined capital city rents have fallen over the past year, it’s clearly not uniform in nature.

“Melbourne, Hobart and Canberra have each recorded stronger rental growth over the past year compared to the previous year,” notes CoreLogic. “At the same time, we are experiencing the weakest annual changes in rents on record in Sydney, Brisbane and Perth.”

To Cameron Kusher, research analyst at CoreLogic, the weakness seen over the past year looks set to continue for some time yet.

“As long as wages growth continues to stagnate, coupled with historically high levels of new dwelling construction and slowing population growth, landlords won’t have much scope to increase rents,” says Kusher.

“On the flipside, renters are now in a much better position to negotiate,” he adds.

What Britain can learn from how public housing is run in Europe

From The UK Conversation.

The UK government’s so-called “pay to stay” proposals for rent hikes for social housing tenants on higher incomes in England have led to a barrage of criticism, most recently from the Local Government Association, which argued that the bureaucratic costs and complexities involved would erase most income the scheme might generate.

The policy certainly raises concerns. It seems odd and unfair to on the one hand force tenants on higher incomes to pay market rents, while on the other hand offering tenants wishing to take advantage of their right to buy a significant discount to their property’s market value, whether they need it or not. As the LGA argued, it’s questionable how feasible it is to implement the means testing required, especially in the short time frame demanded (by April 2017). How should councils calculate accurate market rents, given the lack of appropriate data? And it seems incoherent for the government to demand a reduction of 1% a year in social rents, while promoting “affordable rent” properties at significantly higher rents than social housing.

But behind these details are bigger questions. If we take social housing to mean housing offered at below-market rents, can and should this ever be justified without means testing? And ultimately, what is the purpose of social housing? Are we to believe that it is only for the very poor until they are able to house themselves on the open market? Or is this approach and the ghettoisation that it entails, as Nye Bevan put it, “a wholly evil thing … a monstrous affliction upon the essential psychological and biological oneness of the whole community”. It bears noting that Bevan also acknowledged that there was still a place to ask higher rents of higher earners.

Britain has wrestled with what it wants social housing to be and how it should be run for decades, alternating between governments of different hues but also with the changing political and economic landscape. But of course other nations operate social housing and have different approaches. What can Britain learn from her European neighbours?

Vienna: using the state to keep rents down

For example, if Bevan were alive today and was disenchanted by the problems of under-supply and erosion of social housing in Britain, he would find a happy berth in Vienna, Austria. The city retains some 220,000 housing units of its own, supplemented by 136,000 units through housing associations, and requires new developments to be of mixed tenures (social rent, market rent, leasehold), with state financial support for developers and projects coming with social obligations.

The result of wide availability of affordable and secure social housing and regular new construction is that the social rent sector in Vienna actually depresses rents in the market sector, reducing the disparity that would otherwise exist and keeping rents generally more affordable. Although there are income thresholds beyond which new tenants may not access social housing, they are quite high (€44,000 for a single-person household, €66,000 for a two-person household), and once a flat is occupied the tenants enjoy security of tenure. All this leads to genuinely mixed communities, none more famous than the Karl Marx-Hof.

Vienna’s Karl Marx-Hoff. Roger Newbrook/Flickr, CC BY

Historically the Netherlands, Sweden and to some extent Germany (in east Germany and the cities) have been associated with this model, although it has come under significant political pressure in recent times.

Market answers to market problems

Such arrangements do not please everyone. In 2009, a Dutch investor succeeded in arguing to the European Commission that state aid (for social housebuilding) should only be used to support accommodation for “disadvantaged citizens”. As a result, the Dutch housing minister agreed to reduce the income threshold for access to social housing from €38,000, above the average, to well below it at €33,000 (although recent negotiations have subsequently reversed the decision).

The European Commission and the OECD in their respective country reports have frequently favoured an approach where rents are always at the market level regardless of whether the tenancy is social or private, with those on low incomes assisted through housing benefit rather than through the offer of accommodation that is cheaper per se. This comes with a clear focus on shaping social housing as something for disadvantaged groups.

If private real estate investors and right-of-centre politicians using competition policy is one pressure on the Bevanite view of social housing, the other comes simply from the fact that demand so often outstrips supply. If the state takes the (on the face of it, sensible) decision to prioritise those in greatest housing need then, de facto, social housing will progressively become the preserve of those at the lowest end of the income spectrum – a process sometimes referred to as residualisation.

This acute shortage of social housing has affected even thriving German cities such as Berlin, where social housing was privatised at a time when lack of cash was the issue not housing supply, leading to acute shortages now when both are being squeezed.

What conclusions can we draw? The debate in England about “pay to stay” is by no means unique, and reflects pressure from private investors, right-of-centre politicians and the European Commission to move away from cross-income social housing. Nevertheless politicians have a genuine choice: housing benefit might be considered a more efficient use of public money in the short term than offering lower rents for everyone living in social housing. But to restrict who may live in social housing so that it becomes the preserve only of the poorest risks concentrating deprivation in estates. It also stops social rents applying downward pressure, through competition with the private sector, on the wider market – which might increase housing benefit expenditure in the long run.

In the end, when the situation is as it is in Britain and a growing number of other countries, the whole debate becomes insignificant when the overwhelming problem is the shortage of housing supply.

Author: Ed Turner, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Head of Politics and International Relations, Aston University

Sydney property market spreads price shocks to other capital cities

From The Conversation.

The Sydney property market creates shocks that spill over to other capital cities, and Hobart is one of the worst affected, new research from the University of New South Wales shows.

The study looked at all eight Australian capital cities. Perth and Darwin’s housing market appeared to be the least affected by shocks originating in other capitals.

“We shouldn’t think of Australian housing markets as being completely isolated. It’s not the case that whatever happens in Sydney doesn’t have any implications for what happens in other housing markets,” says Associate Professor Glenn Otto, the author of the research.

Professor Otto examined data on median house prices and rents, from the early 1980s till 2015, released quarterly by the Real Estate Institute of Australia.

He modelled how variations in capital gains and rental returns in each of the cities affected returns in other cities, over twelve month periods.

“You historically don’t see a big share of Brisbane or Melbourne type shocks spilling over to other markets,” Professor Otto noted.

The spillover effects to different capital city housing markets have been increasing over time since the mid 1990s and account for about 40 to 50% of the variance in forecast property returns to houses and units.

Spillover-Index“From time to time you’ll get predictions that we’ve built too many units in the Melbourne housing market and there’s an oversupply and its specific to these markets, so we’ll see some price correction.

“The thing I was interested in was, looking at the historical data, was to what extent that correction won’t be specific to the particular market but also will feed through to other markets,” said Professor Otto.

The research also examined the split between houses and units. Although there wasn’t a huge difference in results for the two different dwelling types, the cities most affected by shocks in terms of units were Brisbane and Hobart and for houses it’s Canberra and Hobart.

Professor Otto is now planning to research what causes these spillover effects and what that can tell us about volatility in Australia’s housing market.

“Australian cities are quite isolated so we wouldn’t necessarily expect people to be picking up and moving between cities in response to changes in property prices, but what we might see is investors thinking about where they want to buy and sell property.

“To that extent investors may be becoming an increasingly important part of the housing market, maybe that’s one mechanism by which we can see this kind of effect of one city being transferred to another city,” Professor Otto said.

The research was funded by an Australian Research Council Linkage Project Grant.

Jenni Henderson, Assistant Editor, Business and Economy, The Conversation interviewed Glenn Otto, Associate Professor, UNSW Australia

Capital City Auction Clearance Rate Reached a New Year to Date High

According to CoreLogic, the first weekend of spring sees preliminary capital city clearance rate reach a new year to date high of 78.4 per cent.

The number of homes taken to auction this week fell slightly to 1,858, compared to the 2,153 auctions held last week and 2,297 one year ago.  The preliminary clearance rate was higher than the previous week’s result of 74.5 per cent and up from last year, when the clearance rate was recorded at 73.2 per cent.

Preliminary results this week are the highest recorded this year.  The results show that Melbourne and Sydney recorded the highest clearance rates of (79.3 per cent) and (83.9 per cent) respectively, however both cities were host to fewer auctions this week when compared to last week.

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This is consistent with the APM data we reported on Saturday.

NZ Tightens Mortgage Lending Rules From 1 October

The NZ Reserve Bank today confirmed that new macroprudential rules tighten restrictions on bank lending to residential property buyers throughout New Zealand. Residential property investors will generally need a 40 percent deposit for a mortgage loan, and owner-occupiers will generally need a 20 percent deposit.

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From 1 October, residential property investors will generally need a 40 percent deposit for a mortgage loan, and owner-occupiers will generally need a 20 percent deposit. In both cases, banks are still allowed to make a small proportion of their lending to borrowers with smaller deposits.

Confirmation of the new rules is in the Reserve Bank’s response to submissions to its public consultation about changes to Loan to Value Ratio (LVR) rules that was issued on 19 July.

The Reserve Bank is modifying its proposals in response to public consultation, and also through meetings and workshops with banks that are subject to the rules.

The new rules take effect on 1 October 2016, but banks have chosen to start following the new limits already.

Existing exemptions to LVR restrictions will continue to apply under the new rules and have been extended to include borrowing for a newly-built home, or to do work needed for a residence to comply with new building codes and rental-property standards.

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Yet Another Set of Hot Auction Results

The provisional data from APM PriceFinder for today’s auction clearances shows that once again there is a high sale rate, though on lower listing volumes than this time last year. There is life in the property market still!

In Sydney, 80% of the 537 listings cleared, up from 75.6% last week, and 72.6% last year – though there were 822 on the market then. In Melbourne, 77.5% of the 718 properties sold, compared with 76% last week, and 73.3% last year. Brisbane cleared 55% of the 83 properties listed, Adelaide 74% of 59 properties and 82% of the 52 properties listed in Canberra.

Nationally, the result translates to 77.8% of 1,449 listings, compared with 74.2% of 1,646 last week and 71.2% of 1,888 last year.

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Auctions Up and Hot, Again

CoreLogic’s latest auction data shows there were 2,113 auctions held across Australia’s capital cities this week, a rise from last week, (1,795) yet lower than the 2,654 auctions held at the same time last year. This aligns with APM’s data we discussed on Saturday.

It is expected that auction activity will begin to pick up as we head into the spring selling season. The preliminary auction clearance rate was 76.6 per cent this week, higher than last week’s result of 75.2 per cent and representing another year to date high for the combined capitals. One year ago, the final auction clearance rate was recorded at 73.4 per cent, lower than what is currently being observed. Over winter 2016, clearance rates has ranged from a low of 65.7 per cent to a high of 76.6 per cent, compared to last winter where the weekly clearance rate remained above 70 per cent each week for the entire winter season, peaking at 78.5 per cent at the start of June.

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Will New Home Sales take a new year dip?

The Housing Industry Association (HIA) New Home Sales Report to July 2016, which is based on a survey of Australia’s largest volume builders, suggests new commencements in 2016/17 will slow significantly.

HIA-New-Home-July-2016“The short term outlook for healthy levels of new home construction remains intact – calendar year 2016 will be a record year for new dwelling commencements, but the situation could look very different from next year,” commented HIA Chief Economist, Dr Harley Dale.

“The monthly HIA survey of Australia’s largest volume builders reveals that total seasonally adjusted new home sales fell by 9.7 per cent in July 2016 following an increase of 8.2 per cent in June. The overall trend decline in new home sales is accelerating, signalling a relatively sharp drop (from a record high) in new dwelling commencements from 2017.”

“New home construction has been the kingmaker of the Australia economy, but the cycle has peaked,” noted Harley Dale.

“In all likelihood we will experience sharper falls in new home construction in both 2017 and 2018. The magnitude of decline in new home construction in coming years will of course be exaggerated by where we are coming from – record levels of medium/high density construction and historically healthy levels of detached/semi-detached dwelling construction.”

“There will no doubt be a tendency to sensationalise any negative results for new housing as the trajectory of the down cycle unfolds. We would do well to remember that this down cycle is following a record high that is some 24 per cent higher than the previous (1994) peak and that there is an unprecedented degree of uncertainty this time around as to how the next few years of new home building unfold,” concluded Harley Dale.

In the month of July 2016 detached house sales fell in all five mainland states, after rising everywhere in June. Sales dropped by 12.6 per cent in South Australia and were down by 8.7 per cent in Queensland, 8.2 per cent in Western Australia, 6.2 per cent in NSW, and 6.0 per cent in Victoria.