Clinging To The Trade Life-Line [Podcast]

We look at the latest trade figures, which reached another record.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Clinging To The Trade Life-Line [Podcast]
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Is Retail In Recession?

Woolworths Holdings announced yesterday it will book an impairment of $437.4 million against David Jones, reducing the valuation of the department chain to about $965 million. This write down is the second since 2018. Woolworths Holdings bought the prestigious network of stores in 2014 for $2.1 billion.

A Woolworths spokeswoman said

This writedown reflects sustained and unprecedented economic pressures and structural changes in the Australian market. The retail sector in Australia is currently in recession, and the Australian economy has slowed to its weakest level since the global financial crisis in 2009

Today the ABS said the trend estimate for Australian turnover rose 0.2% in June 2019. This follows a rise of 0.2% in May 2019 and a rise of 0.2% in April 2019. The seasonally adjusted estimate for Australian turnover rose 0.4% in June 2019. This follows a rise of 0.1% in May 2019 and a fall of 0.1% in April 2019. The original estimate for Australian turnover fell 1.5% in June 2019. The original estimate for chains and other larger retailers fell 0.1% in June 2019. The original estimate for smaller retailers fell 4.6% in June 2019.

The following states and territories rose in trend terms in June 2019: Victoria (0.3%), Queensland (0.4%), South Australia (0.3%), the Australian Capital Territory (0.4%), Tasmania (0.3%), and the Northern Territory (0.2%). New South Wales (0.0%), and Western Australia (0.0%) were relatively unchanged in trend terms in June 2019.

FOOD RETAILING

In current prices, the trend estimate for Food retailing rose 0.1% in June 2019. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.1%. By industry subgroup, the trend estimate rose for Supermarkets and grocery stores (0.1%), was relatively unchanged for Liquor retailing (0.0%), and fell for Other specialised food retailing(-0.4%). The seasonally adjusted estimate rose for Supermarkets and grocery stores (0.5%), and fell for Other specialised food retailing (-3.8%), and Liquor retailing (-0.1%).

Graph: Food retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOODS RETAILING

In current prices, the trend estimate for Household goods rose 0.2% in June 2019. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.2%. By industry subgroup, the trend estimate rose for Electrical and electronic goods retailing (0.4%), and Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile goods retailing (0.3%), and fell for Hardware, building and garden supplies retailing (-0.2%).

Graph: Houshold goods retailing

CLOTHING, FOOTWEAR AND PERSONAL ACCESSORY RETAILING

In current prices, the trend estimate for Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing rose 0.6% in June 2019. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 2.0%. By industry subgroup, the trend estimate rose for Clothing retailing (0.5%), and Footwear and other personal accessory retailing (0.5%).

Graph: Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing

DEPARTMENT STORES

In current prices, the trend estimate for Department stores rose 0.2% in June 2019. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.6%.

Graph: Department Stores

OTHER RETAILING

In current prices, the trend estimate for Other retailing rose 0.4% in June 2019. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.6%. By industry subgroup, the trend estimate rose for Other retailing n.e.c. (0.4%), Pharmaceutical, cosmetic and toiletry goods retailing (0.4%), and Other recreational goods retailing (0.2%), and was relatively unchanged (0.0%) for Newspaper and book retailing.

Graph: Other retailing

CAFES, RESTAURANTS AND TAKEAWAY FOOD SERVICES

In current prices, the trend estimate for Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services rose 0.2% in June 2019. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.5%. By industry subgroup, the trend estimate rose for Cafes, restaurants and catering services (0.2%), and Takeaway food services (0.1%).

Graph: Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services

Online retail turnover contributed 6.1 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in June 2019. In June 2018 online retail turnover contributed 5.7 per cent to total retail.

For the June quarter 2019, there was a rise of 0.2 per cent in seasonally adjusted volume terms. This follows a fall of 0.1 per cent in the March quarter 2019. The quarterly rise in volumes was led by Department stores (1.4 per cent), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.5 per cent), Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.7 per cent), Other retailing (0.4 per cent), and Household goods retailing (0.1 per cent). Food retailing (-0.4 per cent) fell in seasonally adjusted volume terms.

Nab’s online retail tells the same story:

  • The NAB Online Retail Sales Index contracted (-1.6%) in June on a month-on-month, seasonally adjusted basis. This follows from a rebound in May (3.4% mom, s.a).
  • In year-on-year terms, the NAB Online Retail Sales Index remains positive, albeit barely, up 0.5% (y/y, s.a.) in June. However, this result is compared to June 2018, and it is worth noting that the period January to September 2018 was one of the strongest growth periods in the NAB online retail sales index history.
  • After a strong May result, June data shows sales for three of the eight online retail categories contracting in month-on-month growth terms. The largest sales category, homewares and appliances (-7.1% mom, s.a.), was a key contributor to the headline result given its relative weight in the index. Media, and to a lesser extent, grocery and liquor, were the two other categories to contract in the month. The smallest sales category, takeaway food, recorded the fastest growth in the month. For more detail, see Charts 3, 5, 7 & 8 below.
  • In month-on-month terms, all states and territories except WA (2.4% mom, s.a.) and ACT (4.5%) recorded a contraction in sales growth. Tasmania (-6.4%) led the monthly decline in sales growth.
  • In June, spend growth in metro areas was higher, at 0.4% (mom, s.a.), relative to regional (-3.1%). WA metro areas went against the broader result to record the highest online retail spend growth (+5.4%) in the month. The above mentioned state contraction in online retail sales for Tasmania was associated with a larger contraction in metro area sales, along with a smaller contraction in regional, albeit with sales for the latter also falling last month. See Charts 15 and 16 for more detail.
  • While contracting, at -1.6%, domestic online retailers performed better in month-on-month terms relative to international competitors (-1.9% mom, s.a.). In year-on-year terms, from our series, considerable weakness in international online sales remains. See charts 13 and 14, and table 3 for category growth and share.
  • We estimate that in the 12 months to June, Australians spent $29.32 billion on online retail, a level that is just over 9% of the traditional bricks and mortar retail sector (May 2019, Australian Bureau of Statistics), and about 12.7% higher than the 12 months to June 2018.

CPI rose 0.6 per cent in the June quarter 2019

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6 per cent in the June quarter 2019, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures. This follows no movement (0.0 per cent) in the March quarter 2019.

  • All groups CPI seasonally adjusted rose 0.7%.
  • The trimmed mean rose 0.4%, following a rise of 0.3% in the March quarter 2019.
  • Over the twelve months to the June quarter 2019, the trimmed mean rose 1.6%, following a rise of 1.6% over the twelve months to the March quarter 2019.
  • The weighted median rose 0.4%, following a rise of 0.1% in the March quarter 2019.
  • Over the twelve months, the weighted median rose 1.2%, following a revised rise of 1.4% over the twelve months to the March quarter 2019.

The most significant price rises in the June quarter 2019 were automotive fuel (+10.2 per cent), medical and hospital services (+2.6 per cent), international holiday travel and accommodation (+2.7 per cent) and tobacco (+2.4 per cent).

Prices for fruit and vegetables (-2.8 per cent), domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-1.5 per cent) and electricity (-1.7 per cent) fell this quarter.

ABS Chief Economist, Bruce Hockman said: “Automotive fuel prices rose 10.2 per cent in the June quarter 2019. This rise had a significant impact on the CPI, contributing half of the 0.6 per cent rise this quarter. Automotive fuel prices returned to levels recorded in late 2018 after falling 8.7 per cent in the March quarter 2019.”

Inflation varied across the major centres. In Sydney we saw a large rise in fuel costs, putting the result in the range being experienced by Perth and Darwin.

Main Positive Contributors

  • Transport (+3.4%) driven by higher world oil prices and retail fuel margins resulting in an increase in automotive fuel (+10.2%). Automotive fuel rose in all capital cities this quarter, ranging from Canberra (+1.7%) to Sydney (+11.8%).
  • Health (+1.8%) due to the cyclical increase in Private Health Insurance premiums in the medical and hospital services (+2.6%) from 1 April. Medical and hospital services rose in all capital cities, ranging from Canberra (+1.8%) to Adelaide (+3.8%).

Main Negative Contributors

  • Food and non-alcoholic beverages (-0.4%) driven by an improved supply of fruit and vegetables with autumn/winter produce coming into season, and bananas returning to normal prices following adverse weather conditions in Queensland last quarter. Perth exhibited a smaller fall than the other cities due to localised drought conditions affecting fruit and vegetable supply.
  • Housing (-0.2%) driven by utilities (-1.0%), new dwelling purchase for owner-occupiers (-0.2%), and continued weakness in rents (0.0%). Utilities fell in all cities excluding Perth (0.0%) and Darwin (+0.1%), ranging from Hobart (-0.1%) to Brisbane (-3.2%).

The CPI rose 1.6 per cent through the year to the June quarter 2019, after increasing 1.3 per cent through the year to the March quarter. Mr Hockman said: “Annual growth in the CPI continues to be subdued due to falls in a number of administered prices. Through the year, utility prices have fallen 0.2 per cent and child care has fallen 7.9 per cent following the introduction of the Child Care Subsidy package in July 2018.”

A Deeper Dive Into The Employment Numbers [Podcast]

We look at the latest from the ABS.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
A Deeper Dive Into The Employment Numbers [Podcast]
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Retail Remains In The Doldrums

The ABS released their retail turnover figures today.

The trend estimate rose 0.2% in May 2019. This follows a rise of 0.2% in April 2019, and a rise of 0.2% in March 2019.

The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.1% in May 2019. This follows a fall of 0.1% in April 2019, and a rise of 0.3% in March 2019.

In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 2.7% in May 2019 compared with May 2018.

The following industries rose in trend terms in May 2019: Food retailing (0.2%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.3%), Other retailing (0.2%), and Department stores (0.3%). Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.0%) was relatively unchanged. Household goods retailing (-0.1%) fell in trend terms in May 2019.

The following states and territories rose in trend terms in May 2019: Queensland (0.4%), Victoria (0.3%), South Australia (0.4%), the Northern Territory (0.3%), and the Australian Capital Territory (0.2%). New South Wales (0.0%) and Tasmania (0.0%) were relatively unchanged. Western Australia (-0.2%) fell in trend terms in May 2019.