ABS – Page 30 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Dwelling approvals fall in September 2018

The number of dwellings approved in Australia fell by 1.9 per cent in September 2018 in trend terms, according to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.

Dwelling units approved
Graph: Dwelling units approved

Private sector houses approved
Graph: Private sector houses approved

“The fall was mainly driven by private dwellings excluding houses, which decreased by 2.7 per cent in September,” said Daniel Rossi, Director of Construction Statistics at the ABS. “Private sector houses also fell, by 1.5 per cent.”

Among the states and territories, dwelling approvals fell in September in the Australian Capital Territory (8.4 per cent), Northern Territory (6.9 per cent), South Australia (3.9 per cent), Queensland (2.3 per cent), Western Australia (2.1 per cent), New South Wales (1.3 per cent) and Victoria (1.0 per cent) in trend terms. Tasmania was the only state to see an increase in dwelling approvals (1.5 per cent) in trend terms.

Approvals for private sector houses fell 1.5 per cent in September in trend terms. Private sector house approvals fell in Queensland (3.1 per cent), South Australia (3.0 per cent), Western Australia (2.2 per cent) and Victoria (1.7 per cent). New South Wales recorded an increase of 0.5 per cent.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total dwellings rose by 3.3 per cent in September, driven by a 9.2 per cent increase in private dwellings excluding houses. Private houses fell 2.7 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms.

The value of total building approved fell 1.3 per cent in September, in trend terms, and has fallen for eleven months. The value of residential building fell 1.7 per cent while non-residential building fell 0.7 per cent.

Australian Economy Reaches over $1.8 trillion; Thanks To Households

The Australian Annual National Accounts released by the ABS today show that the size of the economy has reached over $1.8 trillion, reflecting a 2.8 per cent increase in 2017-18. This is up from the $1.2 trillion in 2007-08 in nominal terms.

Household consumption is a large part of the story, contributing 1.6pp though with incomes and the savings ratio falling, while investment in property is the standout. Households borrowed an additional $981 billion over the 10 year period from 2007-08, while the value of land and dwellings increased by $2,957 billion over the same period. No wonder the regulators want to maintain the credit bubble. Household gross disposable income plus other changes in real net wealth decreased $634 billion, or 33.3%, in 2017-18, thanks mainly to falling property values. Expect more falls ahead.

ABS Chief Economist, Bruce Hockman, said: “The Annual National Accounts provides further insights on the structure of the economy, using the latest economy wide supply-use data. The annual growth rate is consistent with the quarterly growth rates published for the June quarter.”

“Australia has now recorded its 27th consecutive year of economic growth and is performing above the 10 year average growth of 2.6 per cent,” Mr Hockman said.

In 2017-18 the largest industries in the Australian economy were financial and insurance services, mining, construction and health care and social assistance, representing over 30 per cent of the economy. In the past decade, the mining industry’s capital stock has more than doubled, reflecting strong mining investment over this time.

The Annual National Accounts also include labour productivity by industry estimates, which are only available annually. Australia’s labour productivity rose by 0.2 per cent, recording the lowest rise since recording a fall in 2010-11.

Agriculture, mining and utilities industries all recorded falls in labour productivity while services industries such as finance, professional, scientific and technical services as well as administrative support services were more productive.

They provided a series of data points to support the release:

The Australian economy expanded by 2.8% in chain volume terms in 2017-18, the 27th consecutive year of economic growth. Real net national disposable income grew 2.8%. The terms of trade increased 1.9% in 2017-18 following an increase of 14.3% in the previous year. Labour productivity in the market sector increased 0.4% while the household saving ratio fell to 3.5%.

Economic growth was driven by domestic final demand, which contributed 3.4 percentage points to growth while net trade in goods and services detracted 0.7 percentage points. Household final consumption expenditure (2.9%) contributed 1.6 percentage points. Strength in household final consumption expenditure was driven by both discretionary and essential consumption with increased spending in rent and other dwelling services, food, recreation and culture, insurance and other financial services, and hotels cafes and restaurants. Household spending on electricity, gas and other fuels decreased for the first time since 2013-14. Private business investment contributed 1.0 percentage point. Private business investment increased 8.5% following four consecutive falls with a rebound in non-dwelling construction (11.9%) driven by investment in renewable energy projects.

Mining value added continued to expand, recording its 14th consecutive annual rise. Most of the expansion in Mining came from Oil and Gas Extraction, reflecting new capacity coming online. The Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction industry recorded strong growth of 16.2% reflecting increased private and public investment in new engineering construction. Strong public expenditure in the health sector has translated to continued expansion in the Health Care and Social Assistance industry as it recorded its strongest growth since 2008-09. Service-based industries also contributed to growth, highlighting the economy’s transition to service delivery.

All income components of GDP recorded growth with the exception of public non-financial corporation gross operating surplus. Strong wage growth resulted in compensation of employees rising 4.5%, the strongest annual rise since 2011-12. Wage growth was evident in the Health Care and Social Assistance industry from both private and public sectors. This was largely driven by new hospitals coming online following government investment in previous years.

The chain price indexes for GDP and domestic final demand increased 1.9% and 1.4% respectively in 2017-18. The gap in price movements is reflected in the changes to the terms of trade.

During 2017-18, National net borrowing was $54.2 billion, driven by the issuance of shares and other equity by private non-financial sector reflecting strong foreign investment in Australian corporations.

AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY GROWS BY 2.8%

Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.8% in 2017-18. This represents a 0.1 percentage point downward revision from the annualised 2017-18 GDP estimates published in the June quarter 2018 national accounts. GDP per capita increased 1.2% as the Australian population grew by 1.6%.

GDP AND GDP PER CAPITA, Volume measures

DOMESTIC FINAL DEMAND DRIVES ECONOMIC GROWTH IN 2017-18

Economic growth in 2017-18 was largely driven by domestic final demand. Household consumption contributed 1.6pp while government consumption contributed 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth. Gross fixed capital formation contributed 1.0 percentage point. Net exports detracted from GDP growth in 2017-18, with imports of goods and services detracting 1.4 percentage points and partially offset by exports of goods and services which contributed 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth.

CONTRIBUTIONS TO GDP(E) GROWTH, Volume measures

Note: Contributions may not add to GDP growth due to the statistical discrepancy.

HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION GROWTH STRONGEST IN 6 YEARS

Household final consumption expenditure recorded growth of 2.9% in chain volume terms in 2017-18, reflecting growth in both discretionary and essential consumption.

HOUSEHOLD FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, Volume Measures

PRIVATE BUSINESS INVESTMENT RISES FOR FIRST TIME IN 5 YEARS

Private business investment recorded a 1.0% increase in 2017-18.

Non-mining investment grew at 13.5% in 2017-18, driven by investment in machinery and equipment and renewable energy projects.

Mining investment declined for a 5th consecutive year, however the rate of decline has moderated with a fall of 4.1% recorded for 2017-18.

Investment in dwellings remains at an elevated level, reflecting continued residential construction activity in both detached and attached dwellings.

PRIVATE CAPITAL INVESTMENT, Volume Measures

Note: Excludes Ownership transfer costs

MINING CONTINUES TO GROW AS GAS PRODUCTION INCREASES

The Australian economy has changed dramatically over the past 20 years as reflected by changes in contribution to gross value added.

In 2017-18 the industries with the largest share of current price gross value added (at basic prices) were Financial and Insurance Services (9.5%), Mining (8.8%) and Construction (8.1%).

Mining recorded a growth of 2.9% in 2017-18 (2.9%) driven by Oil and Gas Extraction. Growth in Oil and Gas Extraction was due to large projects entering production phase during the year.

Health Care and Social Assistance rose 6.3% in 2017-18 resulting in it becoming the fourth largest industry. Growth in 2017-18 reflects strong public expenditure in the health industry, recording its strongest growth since 2008-09.

Strong private and public investment was reflected in the growth of value added of the Construction industry (5.1%) with Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction recording a strong rise of 16.2%.

INDUSTRY SHARES OF GROSS VALUE ADDED – Selected industries, Current prices

Note: GVA at basic prices of industries as a proportion of total GVA at basic prices

COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES SHARE OF TOTAL FACTOR INCOME FALLS

In 2017-18 compensation of employees (COE) share of total factor income fell to 52.4%, recording its lowest level in seven years. This share is still higher than the lowest level recorded but lower than the 10 year average of 53.0%.

In 2017-18 the profit’s share (based on gross operating surplus for corporations) of total factor income was 27.6%. This is the highest level since 2011-12, but is still below the peak of 29.0% seen in 2008-09.

A major contributor to this rise in profit share of total factor income was Mining which was impacted by the continued strength in the terms of trade. The profit share measure should not be interpreted as a direct measure of ‘profitability’ for which it is necessary to relate profits to the level of capital assets employed.

WAGES SHARE OF TOTAL FACTOR INCOME

PROFITS SHARE OF TOTAL FACTOR INCOME

CHANGES TO INDUSTRY COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES OVER TIME

Industry shares of total COE changed significantly for some industries between 1997-98 to 2017-18. Over these two periods, the share of COE for the Health Care and Social Assistance, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, and Construction industries increased in 2017-18 compared to 1997-98. This is contrary to the Manufacturing, and Finance and Insurance Services industries, where the shares of COE fell.

These changing patterns of industry shares of COE at these two points in time are also reflective of each industry’s contribution to total employment.

INDUSTRY SHARES OF COE – Selected industries, Current prices

HOUSEHOLD SAVING RATIO DECLINES

The household saving ratio is another key aggregate in the national accounts. While household saving is not measured directly, it is calculated by deducting household final consumption expenditure from household net disposable income.

The household saving ratio continued to fall in 2017-18, recording 3.5%, its lowest level in nine years. The fall in net saving as a proportion of net disposable income can be attributed to strength in household final consumption expenditure coupled with growth in income tax payable by households.

HOUSEHOLD SAVING RATIO

GDP CHAIN PRICE INDEX GROWTH DRIVEN BY STRONG CAPITAL INVESTMENT COSTS

The GDP chain price index increased 1.9% in 2017-18. While not as strong as 2016-17, rises in coal and LNG prices were again significant contributors to the increase in export prices through 2017-18. Strong demand and rising input costs drove increases in capital investment costs, while rising fuel and utility prices drove household consumption prices.

CHAIN PRICE INDEXES

MARKET SECTOR MULTIFACTOR PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES

Market sector multifactor productivity (MFP) grew 0.5% in 2017-18. This result reflects a 2.7% increase in gross value added and a 2.2% increase in combined inputs of labour and capital services. On a quality adjusted hours worked basis, MFP rose 0.2%, reflecting changes in labour composition.

On an hours worked basis, labour productivity grew 0.4%, reflecting the strengthening growth in hours worked of 2.4%. On a quality adjusted hours worked basis, labour productivity fell 0.2%.

MARKET SECTOR PRODUCTIVITY– Hours worked basis

LOW INTEREST RATES ENTICE HOUSEHOLDS TO INVEST IN DWELLINGS AND LAND

Interest rates have been at historically low levels for a number of years, which has reduced the pressure on households in terms of the proportion of income spent on paying interest on mortgages. Interest on dwellings accounted for 3.6% of total household gross income in 2017-18, compared to 6.0% in 2007-08. This has encouraged households to expand their balance sheets through investment in land and dwellings. Household net worth grew $343 billion, or 3.4%, through 2017-18.

Households borrowed an additional $981 billion over the 10 year period from 2007-08, while the value of land and dwellings increased by $2,957 billion over the same period. Growth in land and dwellings owned by household has slowed from an increase of $720 billion annually in 2016-17 to an increase of $131 billion in 2017-18. This was driven by slow growth in the value of land, while growth in dwelling stock remained steady.

In 1988-89, the value of land and dwellings held by households was 5.1 times the value of household borrowing. By 2007-08 this ratio was at 3.2, and it has remained relatively stable since. In 2017-18, land and dwellings owned by household covered their borrowing 3.1 times. The value of loans carried on the household balance sheet in 2017-18 are now 14.1 times higher than at 1988-89, whereas the value of land and dwellings is 8.5 times higher. While a lower share of household income is spent on mortgage interest than around the time of the Global Financial Crisis, the gap between the value of land and dwellings held by the household sector and the level of household borrowing is narrowing over time.

HOUSEHOLD INTEREST PAYABLE ON DWELLINGS – Relative to total gross household income, Current prices

HOUSEHOLD LAND AND DWELLING ASSETS – Relative to loans, Current prices

HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND WEALTH

Household gross disposable income plus other changes in real net wealth decreased $634 billion, or 33.3%, in 2017-18. This was largely due to a $636 billion decline in the value of land held by households.

Living standards and economic well-being are supported by wealth as well as income. The growth rate of gross disposable income has slowed in recent years. However, households reap gains and incur losses from holding assets, such as land, dwellings, equities and accumulated saving, which also bears on consumption patterns.

HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND WEALTH, Current prices

Trend Unemployment Falls To Six Year Low

The trend unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2 per cent in the month of September 2018 after the August figure was revised down, according to the latest figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The 5% seasonally adjusted result will get all the attention, but these are very volatile, so it is best to work with the trend data, which shows a fall, although participation remains steady. But underemployment remains higher than post the GFC.

“Today’s figures continue to show a gradual decrease in the trend unemployment rate that began in late 2014. The trend unemployment rate of 5.2 per cent is the lowest it has been since mid 2012.” said the Chief Economist for the ABS, Bruce Hockman.

Employment and hours

Trend employment increased by around 26,000 persons in September 2018 with full-time employment increasing by over 21,000 persons.

The trend participation rate remained steady at 65.6 per cent in September 2018.

Over the past year, trend employment increased by over 290,000 persons or 2.4 per cent, which was above the average year-on-year growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent).

The trend monthly hours worked increased by 0.2 per cent in September 2018 and by 1.8 per cent over the past year.

States and territories

The states and territories with the strongest annual growth in trend employment were New South Wales (3.4 per cent) and Victoria (2.6 per cent). New South Wales and Victoria were the only states and territories to record year-on-year growth above their 20-year averages.

Seasonally adjusted data

The seasonally adjusted number of persons employed increased by around 5,600 persons in September 2018. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased to 5.0 per cent and the labour force participation rate decreased to 65.4 per cent.

The net movement of employed in both trend and seasonally adjusted terms is underpinned by well over 300,000 people entering employment, and more than 300,000 leaving employment in the month.

New underemployment data

The trend underemployment rate decreased to 8.3 per cent in September 2018 and the trend underutilisation rate decreased to 13.5 per cent.

The ABS also published a piece on underemployment.

AUSTRALIA’S UNDEREMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

As of September 2018, Australia’s trended underemployment rate (the proportion of underemployed to the total labour force) remained high in historical terms at 8.3%, but below the peak of 8.8% recorded in March 2017.

The underemployment rate has been increasing since it was first recorded in the February 1978 reference period. Over the last four years, the rate has seen minimal fluctuation, remaining between 8.3% and 8.8% in trend terms. The underemployment rate showed large increases over economic downturns – most notably during the early 1990s and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) (refer to Graph 1).

Graph 1, Underemployment and unemployment rates trended, February 1978 to September 2018

a. The monthly data for part-time workers who want to work more hours, between April 2001 and June 2014, is modelled as data during this period was collected quarterly.

Home Lending Flows Fall In August

The ABS released housing finance statistics today to the end of August 2018. The most striking observation is that lending flows for owner occupied buyers appear to be following the lead from the investment sector. Both were down. This is consistent with our household surveys.

Looking at the original first time buyer data, the number of new loans fell from 9,614 in July to 9,534 in August, a fall by 80, or 0.8%. As a proportion of all loans written in the month, the share by first time buyers fell from 18% to 17.8%.

The number of non-first time buyers remained about the same. The average first time buyer loan fell just a little to $345,000. Looking at the DFA investor segment of first time buyers – which is not reported in the official data, there was a further fall.

Thus our overall first time buyer tracker reveals a further slide in activity. Perhaps more are wanting to catch a bargain in a few months, although our surveys suggested the main issue is the inability to get a loan in the now tighter lending environment.

Looking at the trend lending flows, the only segment of the market which was higher was a small rise in refinanced owner occupied loans. These existing loans accounted for 20.5% of all loans written, up from 20.3%, and we see a rising trend since June 2017, from a low of 17.9%. Total lending was $6.3 billion dollars, up $31 million from last month.

Investment loan flows fell 1.2% from last month accounting for $10 billion, down 120 million. Owner occupied loans fell 0.6% in trend terms, down $81 million to $14.5 billion. 41% of loans, excluding refinanced loans were for investment purposes, the lowest for year, from a high of 53% in January 2015.

Looking at the moving parts, only refinance, and owner occupied construction loans rose just a little, all other categories fell.

On these trends,remembering that credit growth begats home price growth, the reverse is also true. Prices will fall further, the question remains how fast and how far? We will be revising our scenarios shortly.

Trend Retail 0.2% Growth In August

The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.2 per cent in August 2018, following a 0.3 percent rise in July 2018. Compared to August 2017, the trend estimate rose 3.4 per cent, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.

In trend terms, Other retailing (0.6 per cent) led the rises. Rises were also seen in Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.3 per cent), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.4 per cent), and Food retailing (0.2 per cent). Department stores fell (-0.1 per cent), and Household goods retailing fell (-0.2 per cent).

Seasonally adjusted, Australian retail turnover rose 0.3 per cent in August 2018, following a relatively unchanged estimate (0.0 per cent) in July 2018.

In trend terms, there were rises in New South Wales (0.3%), Victoria (0.3%), South Australia (0.2%), Queensland (0.2%), Tasmania (0.5%), and the Australian Capital Territory (0.3%). Western Australia fell (0.1%), whilst there was a more significant fall in the Northern Territory (-0.5%).

Online retail turnover contributed 5.6 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in August 2018, a rise from 5.5 per cent in July 2018. In August 2017 online retail turnover contributed 4.6 per cent to total retail.

Residential Building Approvals Fall In August 2018

We discuss the latest building approvals and Cranes Index data. Residential construction is taking a dive.

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Economics and Markets

Residential Building Approvals Fall In August 2018

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Residential Building Approvals Fall Again

The ABS data released today shows that the number of dwellings approved in Australia fell by 1.9 per cent in August 2018 in trend terms.

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In seasonally adjusted terms, total dwellings fell by 9.4 per cent in August, driven by a 17.2 per cent decrease in private dwellings excluding houses. Private houses fell 1.9 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms.

We will continue to base our analysis on the trend data, but this will understate more recent falls…

The cause is simple, a significant fall in the number of new high-rise residential development applications, especially in Victoria. Recent falls in demand and prices suggests a significant reduction in momentum is on the cards there.

Justin Lokhorst, Director of Construction Statistics at the ABS said “The fall was mainly driven by private dwellings excluding houses, which decreased by 2.7 per cent in August, Private sector houses also fell, by 1.2 per cent.”

Among the states and territories, dwelling approvals fell in August in Victoria (5.1 per cent), South Australia (3.6 per cent) and New South Wales (1.6 per cent) in trend terms.

Dwelling approvals rose in trend terms in Western Australia (2.7 per cent), Tasmania (2.3 per cent), Northern Territory (1.5 per cent) and Australian Capital Territory (0.1 per cent). Dwelling approvals were flat in Queensland. But the significant falls in the two most populated states swamps any better news elsewhere.

In trend terms, approvals for private sector houses fell 1.2 per cent in August. Private sector house approvals fell in Queensland (3.3 per cent), Victoria (1.4 per cent), New South Wales (1.1 per cent) and South Australia (0.7 per cent), but rose in Western Australia (1.4 per cent).

The value of total building approved fell 1.3 per cent in August, in trend terms, and has fallen for nine months. The value of residential building fell 0.8 per cent while non-residential building fell 2.3 per cent.

Now, its worth comparing this approvals data with the latest RLB Crane Index, an interesting measure of construction activity (especially high-rise development).

Their Q3 2018 data – the 13th edition of the RLB Crane Index has seen
Australia reach a new record high of 173. Nationally, the number of cranes rose 7%, to 735, the highest count. Melbourne and Newcastle saw a strong crane increases, overtaking the record levels reached six months earlier. Sydney continues to decline from the peak reached in Q4 2017, falling 6%.

They say that the residential index pick up from its fall in Q2 2018, increasing 8%, to 170. Additionally, the non-residential index continued its rise, increasing 7%, recording a new high of 180. Recent construction statistics released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics highlight the ongoing strength of the construction industry. For FY 2018,total construction in Australia reached $221 billion.

Strong increases were seen in the non-residential and engineering construction sectors of 11.1% and 20.7% respectively, while the residential building sector remained constant at $74 billion.

They say that Melbourne’s crane numbers rose, increasing by 35 cranes. Driving this rise is the civil sector with the introduction of 13 new cranes. All
other sectors remained strong, either maintaining or increasing cranes from the count six months ago.

Since its peak in Q3 2017, Sydney’s crane count has been falling, driven by a declining residential sector. The residential crane count has fallen by 55 cranes from its peak in Q4 2017, while the non-residential sector recorded an increase of 26 cranes.

Brisbane has bounced back from its dip in the last edition, driven by a rise in mixed-use projects. While the residential sector remained stable, 11 new cranes were added to the mixed use sector.

The Residential Crane Index at 170 is just below the peak in late 2017 of 177. Note this is NOT the number of cranes. However, we suspect construction momentum is easing, so the number is likely to fall in the months ahead, and the index will decline – Melbourne looks likely to be worst hit in the months ahead.

Overseas Migration Down by 9 Per Cent

The ABS data on migration shows a 9% fall since visa changes made in April 2017. No surprise then the HIA bemoans the fall, pointing to slowing demand for new property.

Of course this is another reason why home prices are likely to go lower.

ABS data released today shows that Australia’s annualised population growth rate slowed for the fourth consecutive quarter.

Over the year to March 2018, Victoria saw the strongest growth in population (+2.2 per cent), followed by the ACT (+2.1 per cent) and Queensland (+1.7 per cent). New South Wales was fourth fastest (+1.6 per cent) with Tasmania fifth (+1.0 per cent), Western Australia sixth (+0.8 per cent) and South Australia seventh (+0.7 per cent). The population of the Northern Territory has actually declined over the last two quarters and the annual rate of growth has slowed to 0.1 per cent.

“Australia’s overseas migration fell by 9 per cent since changes to visa requirements came into force in April 2017, slowing the population growth rate to 1.6 per cent,” Mr Murray added.

“In April 2017, Australia introduced a range of visa changes which have been successful in reducing the number of skilled migrants arriving in Australia.

“The current phase of Australia’s 28 years of continuous economic growth is built upon the arrival of skilled migrants. Skilled migration is necessary to offset the impact of our aging population.

“Looking domestically, states such as New South Wales and Victoria that have benefitted the most from overseas migration over recent years are now seeing population growth rates slowing.

“The slowing rate of population growth, while it remains high for a developed economy, will contribute to slower growth of household consumption.

“This means slower growth in sectors such as retail and residential building. Given that these two sectors are amongst the nation’s largest employers the risks presented a decline in population growth should not be underestimated,” concluded Mr Murray.

ABS Confirms Home Value Falls

The ABS reported their residential price indices to June 2018 today.

The total value of residential dwellings in Australia was $6,926,538m at the end of the June quarter 2018, falling $13,321.1m over the quarter. We need to get use to more falls ahead. Of course it varies by locations and property types.

The mean price of residential dwellings fell $4,100 to $686,200 despite the number of residential dwellings rising by 40,800 to 10,093,700 in the June quarter 201

The price index for residential properties for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 0.7% in the June quarter 2018. The index fell 0.6% through the year to the June quarter 2018. So the falls are accelerating and the more recent CoreLogic series shows further falls ahead.

The capital city residential property price indexes fell in Sydney (-1.2%), Melbourne (-0.8%), Perth (-0.1%) and Darwin (-0.9%), and rose in Brisbane (+0.7%), Hobart (+3.0%), Adelaide (+0.3%) and Canberra (+0.6%).

Annually, residential property prices fell in Darwin (-6.1%), Sydney (-3.9%) and Perth (-0.9%), and rose in Hobart (+15.5%), Canberra (+3.0%), Melbourne (+2.3%), Adelaide (+2.1%) and Brisbane (+1.7%).

Employment Booms (A Little)

The trend unemployment rate decreased from 5.4 per cent to 5.3 per cent in the month of August 2018, according to the latest figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.

ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said that “since last August, the trend unemployment and underemployment rates have both fallen. As a result, underutilisation in Australia was at its lowest level since late 2013, at 13.6 per cent.”

Employment and hours

Trend employment increased by around 29,000 persons in August 2018 with full-time employment increasing by around 21,000 persons.

The trend participation rate remained steady at 65.6 per cent in August 2018, after the July figure was revised up.

“For those people aged 15 to 64 years, trend participation was the highest on record. Female participation in this age group, at 73.2 per cent, was also a record high,” Mr Hockman said.

Over the past year, trend employment increased by around 300,000 persons or 2.5 per cent, which was above the average year-on-year growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent).

The trend monthly hours worked increased by 0.1 per cent in August 2018 and by 1.8 per cent over the past year.

States and territories

For most states and territories, year-on-year growth in trend employment was at or above their 20 year average, except for Western Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. Over the past year, the states and territories with the strongest annual growth in trend employment were New South Wales (3.6 per cent), the Northern Territory (3.0 per cent) and Victoria (2.5 per cent).

Seasonally adjusted data

The seasonally adjusted number of persons employed increased by around 44,000 persons in August 2018. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at 5.3 per cent, the underemployment rate decreased to 8.1 per cent and the underutilisation rate decreased to 13.4 per cent. The labour force participation rate increased to 65.7 per cent.

The net movement of employed in both trend and seasonally adjusted terms was underpinned by well over 300,000 people entering employment, and more than 300,000 leaving employment in the month.