Tag: ABS

GDP 0.3% In Sept Quarter

The ABS published their data to September 2014 in the National Accounts. GDP, in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms, grew 0.3 per cent in the September quarter 2014.  This number is significantly below analysts’ expectations which was in the order of 0.7 per cent in the quarter and also is a drop from the relatively weak 0.5% growth recorded in June.This translates to 2.7 per cent for the 12 months to September 2014.

Net exports contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP growth. Household final consumption expenditure contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth and Government final consumption expenditure contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth. This was offset by a -0.7 percentage point contribution to GDP growth from total Gross fixed capital formation and a -0.1 percentage point contribution from Changes in inventories.

The Terms of trade decreased 3.5%, and Real gross domestic income decreased 0.4%. In seasonally adjusted terms, the main contributors to the increase in expenditure on GDP were Net exports (0.8 percentage points) and Final consumption expenditure (0.4 percentage points) The main detractors were Private gross fixed capital formation (-0.5 percentage points) and Public gross fixed capital formation (-0.2 percentage points).

GDPSep2014In seasonally adjusted terms, the main contributor to GDP growth was Financial and insurance services (0.2 percentage points), with Mining and Information media and telecommunications each contributing 0.1 percentage points to the increase in GDP. The main detractors to growth in GDP were Construction (-0.2 percentage points) and Professional, scientific and technical services (-0.2 percentage points).

The AU – US rate dropped below 84c on the news.

USAUDDec2014

Managed Funds Now Worth $2.44 Trillion

The ABS just released their Managed Funds data to September 2014. The managed funds industry had $2,439.5b funds under management, an increase of $26.6b (1%) on the June quarter 2014 figure of $2,412.8b. The main valuation effects that occurred during the September quarter 2014 were as follows: the S&P/ASX 200 decreased 1.9%; the price of foreign shares, as represented by the MSCI World Index excluding Australia, increased 2.4%; and the A$ depreciated 7.6% against the US$.

ManagedFundsSept2014The consolidated assets of managed funds institutions were $1,922.7b, an increase of $20.0b (1%) on the June quarter 2014 figure of $1,902.7b. The asset types that increased were overseas assets, $16.8b (5%); deposits, $4.4b (2%); short term securities, $2.5b (3%); units in trusts, $2.3b (1%); land, buildings and equipment, $0.6b (0%); and shares, $0.1b (0%). These were partially offset by decreases in other financial assets, $5.8b (16%); bonds, etc., $0.5b (0%); other non-financial assets, $0.2b (2%); and loans and placements, $0.2b (0%). Derivatives were flat. There were $484.7b of assets cross invested between managed funds institutions.

ManagedFundsAssetsSept2014Unconsolidated assets of superannuation (pension) funds increased $24.3b (1%), life insurance corporations increased $3.0b (1%), public offer (retail) unit trusts increased $1.9b (1%), cash management trusts increased $0.6b (2%), common funds increased $0.2b (2%), and friendly societies increased $0.1b (1%).

ManagedFundsUnALOCSept2014

 

Housing Construction Boom Wavers

The ABS published their preliminary construction work done data to September 2014. Overall the seasonally adjusted value of construction work done dropped 2.2 % to $51,146.4m in the September quarter and makes a 5.1% fall this year. Within the data, NT construction rose, helping to trim the damage, but the result was below market expectations.  Within the data. new private residential construction fell by 2.0 per cent in the September quarter but is still 9.7 per cent higher for the year. But the big question is, has construction begun to falter, or will growth continue – building approvals data could suggests it has some way to run, but it looks a little more shaky now. The RBA is banking on construction powering on of course to reach escape velocity as the mining investment boom fades.

The seasonally adjusted estimate of total building work done fell 1.0% to $22,435.8m in the September quarter. The trend estimate for engineering work done fell 3.0% in the September quarter.The seasonally adjusted estimate for engineering work done fell 3.2% to $28,710.6m in the September quarter.

The trend estimate for total construction work done fell 1.2% in the September quarter 2014 but the trend estimate for total building work done rose 1.5% in the September quarter. The trend estimate for non-residential building work done rose 0.9%, while residential building work rose 1.8%. The trend estimates are derived by applying a 7-term Henderson moving average to the seasonally adjusted series. The 7-term Henderson average (like all Henderson averages) is symmetric but, as the end of a time series is approached, asymmetric forms of the average are applied. Unlike weights of the standard 7-term Henderson moving average, the weights employed have been tailored to suit the particular characteristics of individual series. So looking at trend data we see new houses more static than other residential development, (units).

ConstSep2014tTrendFlowsByTypeThis is shown more starkly if we look at percentage distribution. Whilst conversions are relatively static, units and other non-house residential building is showing more momentum.

ConstSep2014tTrendFlowsByTypePCThe original state data shows that more new houses were built in VIC than NSW, with WA and QLD close together.

ConstSep2014HouseStatesPCTurning to other types of residential building, we see that around 70% are locate across NSW and VIC. We see a spike in ACT units in 2011, but this seems to be slowing now. In WA more houses than units are being built.

ConstSep2014OtherResiStatesPC

Securitisation Update

The ABS published their data on Assets and Liabilities of Securitisers in Australia. At 30 September 2014, total assets of Australian securitisers were $131.7b, up $0.1b (0.1%) on 30 June 2014. This continues the flat trend, despite growth in house prices and lending for property purchase.

SecuritersAssetsSept2014During the September quarter 2014, the rise in total assets was due to an increase in other loans (up $0.8b, 5.1%) and cash and deposits (up $0.2b, 4.1%). This was partially offset by decreases in residential mortgage assets (down $0.9b, 0.8%). Residential and non-residential mortgage assets, which accounted for 82.1% of total assets, were $108.1b at 30 September 2014, a decrease of $0.9b (0.8%) during the quarter.

At 30 September 2014, total liabilities of Australian securitisers were $131.7b, up $0.1b (0.1%) on 30 June 2014. The rise in total liabilities was due to the increase in long term asset backed securities issued in Australia (up $1.7b, 1.8%) and loans and placements (up $0.5b, 3.1%). This was partially offset by a decrease in asset backed securities issued overseas (down $1.5b, 12.0%).

SecuritersLiabilitiesSept2014At 30 September 2014, asset backed securities issued overseas as a proportion of total liabilities decreased to 8.3%, down 1.1% on the June quarter 2014 percentage of 9.4%. Asset backed securities issued in Australia as a proportion of total liabilities increased to 78.2%, up 1.4% on the June quarter 2014 percentage of 76.8%.

SecuritersLiabilitiesPCSept2014Finally, looking at loans to households and private non-financial corporations, we see the proportion which are residential mortgages falling to 85%.

SecuritersLoansSept2014

House Prices Rise Fast; Valued At $5.3 Trillion

The ABS released their latest Residential Property Prices series today. Prices continue to rise, and are high by any measure you care to look at. Preliminary estimates show that the price index for residential properties for the weighted average of the eight capital cities rose 1.5% in the September quarter 2014. The index rose 9.1% through the year to the September quarter 2014. The capital city residential property price indexes rose in Sydney (+2.7%), Melbourne (+1.0%), Brisbane (+1.0%), Adelaide (+1.0%), Hobart (+1.0%), Canberra (+0.3%) and Darwin (+0.3%) and fell in Perth (-0.1%). Annually, residential property prices rose in Sydney (+14.6%), Melbourne (+6.9%), Brisbane (+6.7%), Adelaide (+5.6%), Hobart (+4.3%), Perth (+3.7), Darwin (+3.4%), and Canberra (+2.4%).

PricesByStateSept2014EstablishedHousesByStateSept2014The total value of residential dwellings in Australia was $5,296,305.3m at the end of September quarter 2014, rising $99,578m over the quarter. The mean price of residential dwellings rose $8,300 and the number of residential dwellings rose by 37,700 in the September quarter 2014.

The average price in Sydney is above $700,000 (to March 2014), whereas in Tasmania its $250,000.

UnstratifiedPricesByRegionSept2014Also, we see that prices have risen faster in the Cities, compared with regional areas. Here is the data for Sydney and NSW. Actually, if you correct for inflation, prices beyond the main centres have gone sideways, or worse.

UnstratifiedPricesNSWSept2014

Over 50% Investment Loans In September

The latest ABS housing finance data to September 2014 has just been released. We broke more records, as more than half the loans written, excluding refinance, were for investment purposes.

LoanAnalysisSept2014

First time buyers continue to languish, especially in the hot Sydney market. Further evidence of the market being out of kilter, per the RBA’s recent comments. In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 2.3%.

HousingSept14-TypeSummaryIn original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments rose to 12.0% in September 2014 from 11.8% in August 2014. Still near the lowest on record.

HousingSept14-FTBTrendNSW first time buyers continues at the lowest levels, though with a slight uplift this month. WA data flatters the Australia-wide averages for first time buyer finance. It is not just a Sydney thing.

HousingSept14-FTBStateTrendIn trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance fell 0.2% in September 2014. In trend terms, the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings fell 0.3%, while the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings rose 1.2% and the number of commitments for the construction of dwellings rose 0.2%.

HousingSept14-TypeTrendTrend

 

 

ABS Adjust Labour Force Stats Again

The ABS have now reworked the seasonally adjusted numbers, which effectively lifts the unemployment rate slightly.

In the time since the September 2014 labour force estimates were released, the ABS has systematically assessed the effects of each supplementary survey on the labour force estimates. Significant effects have been found for some supplementary surveys, with little or no measurable impact caused by others. As a result of this analysis, an approach has been developed to re-estimate the seasonality of the labour force data with specific adjustments made for the changed pattern of supplementary surveys. This approach will be adopted for the October 2014 labour force release and will result in revisions to the previously-estimated seasonally adjusted (and consequently the trend) results.

In practice, the new seasonal methods should be used to revise the seasonally adjusted estimates for every month in the labour force estimates (i.e. from February 1978 to October 2014). However, checking the consistency of every series from 1978 is not possible in the short time available (the seasonal adjustment process is based on adjusting at a detailed level and aggregating the component series to the totals for persons employed and unemployed) even though the impacts will be small for most months.

The most urgent need has been to resolve the problems in the last few months in the time series. Therefore, as an interim measure, the new approach has been used only from December 2013 to October 2014. In practice, the impact of this interim measure on the percentage changes in seasonally adjusted persons employed and unemployed between November and December 2013 is minimal.

The revised methodology will be applied in future months. In addition, work will continue on refining the methodology and verifying the changed seasonal factors for the full length of the monthly series. The ABS expects to revise all the seasonally adjusted data in conjunction with the annual seasonal reanalysis in early 2015.

The Labour Force Survey uses the concurrent seasonal adjustment method to derive seasonal factors. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses data up to the current month to estimate seasonal factors for the current and all previous months. This process can result in revisions each month to estimates for earlier periods. However, in most instances, the only noticeable revisions will be to the seasonally adjusted estimates for the previous month and one year prior to the current month. Concurrent seasonal adjustment will continue to be used during the next few months. However, as an interim measure, any revisions to seasonally adjusted estimates will be restricted to the period from December 2013 onwards until the annual seasonal reanalysis is completed in early 2015.

Setting the seasonal factors to one for the seasonally adjusted unemployment estimates for July, August and September 2014 published on 9 October resulted in a slight downward bias in the number of persons unemployed and the unemployment rate for those three months. This was not observed in other series and has been rectified by the new seasonal analysis.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (TOTAL PERSONS) – SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Month
Revised to be used in October 2014 publication
Presented in the September 2014 publication
%
%
June 2013
5.7
5.7
July 2013
5.6
5.7
August 2013
5.7
5.8
September 2013
5.7
5.7
October 2013
5.7
5.8
November 2013
5.8
5.8
December 2013
5.9
5.9
January 2014
6.0
6.0
February 2014
5.9
6.0
March 2014
5.8
5.8
April 2014
5.9
5.8
May 2014
5.9
5.9
June 2014
6.1
6.0
July 2014
6.1
6.0
August 2014
6.1
6.0
September 2014
6.2
6.1

 

Investors Burn Bright, First Time Buyers Sidelined (Again)

The monthly ABS housing finance data was released today for August. In a way, nothing new here, as first time buyers continue to be squeezed out, and investors dominate. The trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.3%. Investment housing commitments rose 0.9% while owner occupied housing commitments fell 0.1%. In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions fell 1.2%.

In trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance fell 0.2% in August 2014. In trend terms, the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings fell 0.3% and the number of commitments for the construction of dwellings fell 0.2%, while the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings rose 1.7%. In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments fell to 11.8% in August 2014 from 12.2% in July 2014.

Looking at the first time buyer data, we see they are lowest in NSW and VIC (where the investment market is hottest), but we also see down trends in WA and SA. This confirms our surveys that first time buyers cannot compete.

HousingFinancePC-FTBStateAugust2014Looking at investment lending we see that nearly 50% of all lending in August (if you exclude refinance) was for investment purposes.

HousingFinanceInvAugust2014

Seasonally Adjusted Employment Data Not Reliable – ABS

Today the ABS confirmed what we already knew, there was something weird about the employment data. When the last set came out, showing major and surprising movements, we highlighted the figures were probably not reliable. See the chart below.

UmeploymentAugust2014Now the ABS has said

The ABS has concluded that the seasonal pattern previously evident for the July, August and September labour force estimates is not apparent in 2014. This assessment was made while preparing labour force estimates for September 2014 and relates to all seasonally adjusted labour force estimates other than the aggregate monthly hours worked series.

As there is little evidence of seasonality in the July, August and September months for 2014, the ABS has decided that for these months the seasonal factors will be set to one (reflecting no seasonality). This means the seasonally adjusted estimates (other than for the aggregate monthly hours worked series) for these months will be the same as the original series and this will result in revisions to the previously published July and August seasonally adjusted estimates.

“It is critical that the ABS produces the best set of estimates that it can,” said acting Australian Statistician Jonathan Palmer “so that discussion is on what the estimates mean, and not the estimates themselves.

“To assist in this, the ABS will commission a review with independent external input to develop an appropriate method for seasonally adjusting October 2014 and following months’ estimates.

“The report on the results of this review will be presented in due course.”

The ABS has not made this decision lightly and believes this approach will result in a more meaningful set of seasonally adjusted estimates.

The ABS will continue to produce trend estimates and, as always, encourages users to use the trend estimates to help understand underlying movements in the labour force series.

This admission will increase the level of uncertainty about the accuracy of the data, at a time when unemployment and underemployment are set to remain high (as the IMF stated today). This is exacerbated by the recent cuts to the ABS budgets, making the sample smaller, and less reliable. We are flying somewhat blind at a time when good reliable data is essential if we are to chart a path through current uncertainties. Or maybe the inconvenient truth about rising unemployment will be muted as a result, and this was not entirely without intent.

More Units Help Drive Building Approvals Higher – ABS

The ABS released their building approvals data to August 2014. The number of dwellings approved rose 1.2 per cent in August 2014, in trend terms, and has risen for three months.

Dwelling approvals increased in August in the Australian Capital Territory (13.0 per cent), Northern Territory (8.8 per cent), Queensland (2.7 per cent), South Australia (0.9 per cent), Victoria (0.6 per cent), Western Australia (0.5 per cent) and New South Wales (0.4 per cent) but decreased in Tasmania (4.3 per cent) in trend terms.

In trend terms, approvals for private sector houses were flat in August. Private sector house approvals rose in New South Wales (1.8 per cent) and Queensland (0.8 per cent), but fell in South Australia (2.9 per cent), Western Australia (0.8 per cent) and Victoria (0.5 per cent).

PrivateSectorDwellingsAugust2014The trend estimate for private sector dwellings excluding houses rose 3.1% in August and has risen for three months. The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector dwellings excluding houses rose 9.6% in August and has risen for two months. Units account for more than 50% of approvals in NSW, whereas in WA, it is about 23%.

PCUnitsAugust2014The value of total building approved rose 0.8 per cent in August, in trend terms, and has risen for two months. The value of residential building rose 1.4 per cent while non-residential building fell 0.5 per cent in trend terms. The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 0.5% in August following a fall of 10.9% in the previous month. The value of residential building rose 3.0% and has risen for two months. The value of non-residential building fell 4.5% and has fallen for two months.

ValueBuildingWorkAugust2014