Australian Finance Group acquires strategic interest in Thinktank

Australian Finance Group Limited announced that it has entered into a binding agreement to make a strategic investment of 30.4% (fully diluted) of Think Tank Group Pty Ltd (“Thinktank”) for $10.9 million in cash consideration. In connection with the investment, AFG will distribute a white label Commercial Property product through its network of brokers.

Thinktank operates primarily as a small ticket (sub $3m) commercial property lender and was established in 2005. Thinktank operates nationally and has a loan book in excess of $750 million. It has established itself as a viable and competitive non-major commercial property lender in a sector that has been bereft of competition and choice for too long.

AFG Chief Executive Officer David Bailey explained the decision: “Our strategic investment in Thinktank represents the next evolutionary step for AFG to diversify its earnings base. The ongoing success of AFG Home Loans and the introduction of AFG Business are important contributors to the future growth of AFG. It makes sense to participate further in an asset class that we are comfortable with – both directly through the white label opportunity and indirectly through our shareholding to generate further earnings for AFG.

“The opportunity to blend Thinktank’s commercial property lending expertise with our own distribution and securitisation capability will benefit both businesses. It will also enable us to deliver further competition and choice to the small to medium enterprise (SME) market place at a time when it is most needed. AFG aims to bring the same disciplines to this white label proposition as we have successfully demonstrated with our own residential white label programme,” added Mr Bailey.

Thinktank CEO, Jonathan Street, commented: “The agreement reached with AFG marks a further significant step forward for our business and serves to further enhance our capacity to best service the finance needs of borrowers over the breadth of the Australian commercial property market.

In coming together, we see considerable opportunity to not only combine our efforts to great effect across the AFG network but equally in extending the same emerging advantages and benefits to our wider base of aggregation and broker relationships.”

Investment highlights:

  • Investment of 30.4% (fully diluted) of Thinktank Group Pty Ltd (“Thinktank”) for $10.9 million in cash consideration
  • Addition of a white label commercial property mortgage to AFG’s product offering with a strategic alignment with AFG’s commercial broking platform, AFG Business
  • Opportunity to increase Thinktank’s penetration of the market through AFG’s 2,900 strong broker network
  • Thinktank is expected to achieve profit after tax in FY18 of approximately $3.2 million
  • AFG has the right to appoint two directors to the Thinktank board and they will take up those positions immediately
  • Completion is expected to occur today following the transfer and confirmed receipt of consideration.

More Evidence of A Cooling Market

AFG released their latest data today, which shows the current trends, including lower absolute settlement volumes and values …

… and more loans going to the non-major lenders, as the big four hunker down. Whilst it is myopic, as it looks at volumes through their channels, it is a pretty good indicator of what is happening more widely.

Lower credit volumes will drive prices lower.

They of course emphasis the importance of brokers, as one might expect, given their position in the market:

The release today of the AFG Mortgage Index (ASX:AFG) highlights that the ongoing regulatory intervention into the sector is potentially stifling growth in mortgage applications. Further growth in non-major market share reinforces an increasing appetite for these lenders and highlights the vital role mortgage brokers play in enabling these lenders to compete.

AFG Chief Executive Officer David Bailey explained the results, “Whilst there is likely to be some small seasonal impact on numbers for the quarter, the Index highlights some marginal softening compared to the same period in 2017 with lodgements down just 1.8% on the prior period and just 0.8% on a rolling 12-month basis.

“Given the timing of public holidays and suggestions that Sydney house prices are coming off a little, the fact that there does not seem to be any growth is not surprising,” he said. The only market in the country which appears to be generating ongoing growth is Victoria.

“Western Australia, whilst initially showing signs of some green shoots earlier in the quarter appears to have softened. First home buyers are a known stimulant for an economy, so we hope that the recently announced increased GST allocation to WA will be used in part to stimulate this sector.
Interest Only home loans appear to have levelled off at around 20% over the past three quarters. “With some lenders indicating they again have an  appetite for this type of lending, we would probably call this the bottom for this segment of the market.

AFG’s data also shows the non-majors have continued to pick up market share to now be sitting at more than 36%.

“AFG has 45 lenders on its panel,” said Mr Bailey. “This distribution model creates competitive tension in the lending market which leads to increased consumer choice and, most importantly, improved loan pricing and service across the entire market which benefits all Australian borrowers.

Industry regulator ASIC concluded in its recent examination of the sector that mortgage broking promotes competition by playing a valuable role in providing a distribution channel for lenders, particularly smaller lenders, and exerting downward pressure on home loan pricing,” said Mr Bailey.

“The presence of the mortgage broking channel is one of the few drivers of competitive tension in the Australian lending market.

 

Mortgage Brokers Are Getting Picky

AFG has released their latest Competition index, based on flows through their systems. Myopic it may be, but it does give us another reference point on the market. Major bank share of new loans drifted lower, but also with significant shifts between lenders. The non-majors’ market share is now at 35.97%

AFG General Manager Broker & Residential, Mark Hewitt explained the results: “The gap between the first placed major lender, Westpac at 14.21% of the market and third placed ANZ at 12.32%, is the closest it has been for some time.

“As AFG has stated many times, a consumer dealing directly with a lender has limited negotiating power or knowledge of the interest rates and lending criteria offered by competitors. This has been further validated by the findings of the interim ACCC Residential Mortgage Price Inquiry. The presence of the mortgage broking channel is one of the few drivers of competitive tension in the Australian lending market.

“Whilst the majors’ market share lifted a couple of percentage points across the quarter, rising from 62.51% in November 2017 to 64.03% at the end of February, three of the four majors went backwards.

“ANZ dropped from 14.93% in November 2017 to 12.32% at the close of the last quarter. CBA’s share of the market dropped from 14.99% to 13.63%, and their subsidiary Bankwest dropped from 3.74% to 3.35%. NAB also recorded a drop, from 8.57% in November 2017 to finish the last quarter at 7.67% of the market.

“Only the Westpac group of brands, Westpac, St George, Bank of Melbourne and BankSA grew, with their market share lifting from 20.28% in November 2017 to 27.05% at the close of the last quarter,” he said.

“Interestingly, the Westpac group’s major gain came in the area of fixed rate loans with their share of that product type increasing from 23.63% to 44.24% of the market.

In a sign the majors are again open for business for investors, their share of that segment of the market has lifted from 64.82% in November 2017 to finish February at 66.78%.

The non-majors’ market share is now at 35.97%. “Amongst the non-majors AMP recorded an increase in market share and lifted from 2.27% to 4.62% and Homeloans recorded an increase from 0.14% to 0.33%.

Fees for service would only benefit major banks: AFG

AFG, a major Mortgage Broker Aggregator says that introducing fees for service would cause a “major disruption” in the finance industry, be a “clear disincentive” for borrowers to use brokers and “further entrench the oligopoly powers of the major banks”, in a response to the Productivity Commission, as reported by The Adviser.

In its response to the Productivity Commission’s (PC) draft report into competition in the Australian financial system, the Australian Finance Group (AFG) responded to the call for more information on the effect of replacing broker commissions with a fee-for-service model.

The group pulled no punches in warning that the introduction of such a model would “provide a clear disincentive for consumers to use brokers and would inevitably cause a major disruption in the finance industry”.

“The four major banks would be the only beneficiaries of a change of this kind as they would gain an additional competitive advantage over competing lenders that do not have extensive direct distribution channels,” the broking group said.

“This would further entrench the oligopoly powers of the major banks, which, coupled with the commission’s observations concerning the regulatory advantage of D-SIBs, ha[s] a negative impact on competition in the finance sector and [will] lead to a loss of the pricing benefits that resulted from the development of the mortgage broking industry.”

AFG also predicted that should such a change occur, it would not necessarily mean that any savings would be passed on (i.e. that loans would be repriced or that consumers would save money), as banks would have to distribute their products and would have additional costs (including increased staffing) “to deal with direct applications that have not been professionally compiled and pre-assessed by a broker to meet the lender’s requirements”.

“It is AFG’s contention that the presence of the mortgage broking channel is one of the few drivers of competitive tension in the Australian lending market,” the response reads.

“A consumer dealing directly with a lender has limited negotiating power or knowledge of the interest rates and lending criteria offered by competitors. A mortgage broker with access to a panel of lenders drives competition between lenders to the benefit of all consumers, not just their own clients.”

Touching on trail, AFG said that it “strongly supports” the removal of trail that increases over time, but that it does not agree that the standard trail commission operate as a disincentive to switching.

It said: “When a broker assists a consumer to refinance, trail commissions that cease with respect to the repaid loan will be replaced with the trail commissions payable on the new loan. As a result, it is AFG’s view that, in the absence of increasing trail commission rates over time, trail commissions per se are not likely to have a negative impact on broker behaviour.”

It concluded: “It is important that any changes should not result in an economic drift away from the broker to the lender, as devaluing the service provided by brokers would have significant and long-term detrimental effects for consumers by lessening the competitive tensions that currently exist in the credit industry.

“It is essential that anticompetitive conduct is not permitted to proliferate under the guise of regulatory reform.”

Best interests duty

In regard to the PC’s suggestion that a duty of care be implemented on lender-owned aggregators to act in the consumer’s best interests, AFG said that it was “very concerned” about introducing a test that would be applied to only one section of the industry “as it is likely to result in market distortions and unintended consequences”.

For example, it suggested that lender-owned aggregators could suggest that consumers are at risk if they use a broker that is not subject to the same test (and assert that the safest course for consumers is to only use brokers that are subject to the additional “best interests duty”).

Noting that the Combined Industry Forum has been working on a reform package, AFG added that “before considering additional law reform proposals, sufficient time must be allowed for those proposals to be implemented and embedded into the processes, procedures and culture of individual broker businesses”.

“Once that has occurred, it will be an appropriate time to again review the extent to which community expectations are met and good consumer outcomes are achieved,” the group said.

Lack of data on costs “disingenuous”

Noting that the commission found it difficult to ascertain from lenders the costs and benefits of using brokers rather than branches to source home loans, AFG said that the lack of information from lenders “should be considered to be disingenuous”.

“It is difficult to accept that entities that are sophisticated enough to develop and manage banking products and meet complex legal and regulatory obligations do not have information about product costs that would be needed to price those products,” the group said.

“However, absent a willingness to publicise that information, AFG submits that the willingness of lenders to embrace broker distribution should be considered reasonably reliable evidence that brokers provide an efficient and cost-effective means of distributing lending products.”

It added: “Brokers provide a variable cost base for lenders, with payment only required when a loan is settled and while it remains undischarged and not in default. This means that the risk of non-completion by a prospective borrower is substantially borne by the broker. As a result, lenders using broker distribution (as opposed to fixed-cost branch networks) can more easily price loans in a way to ensure that they are profitable.”

AFG also outlines that it believes ASIC should be responsible for advancing competition in the financial system, that consumers would receive “an inferior standard of service” should financial advisers also offer credit advice, and that ASIC could produce a best practice guide on disclosure requirements.

AFG 1H18 Results up 11%

Australian Finance Group (AFG) has today released half yearly results for 2018 with underlying NPAT in H1 FY2018 of $14.4m, up 11% on H1 FY2017, and a reported NPAT in H1 FY2018 of $16.7m.

Residential settlements were up 6% to $18.6b (interesting compared with Mortgage Choice’s 6% fall!) and their combined residential and commercial loan book is $140.8 billion with growth of 11% over H1 FY2017.

Settlements were strongest in NSW, then VIC. But growth in VIC was significantly stronger and it may overtake NSW ahead.  AFG Home Loans (AFGHL) continued to deliver positive financial growth and settlements grew 31% to $1.62 billion.  Lodgements were up 7%, servicing more than 17,000 customers.

The AFGHL loan book has reached $6.5 billion, an increase of 40% on the same period last year. AFGHL now represents 8.7% of overall AFG Residential settlements – up from 7.8% in FY17

Strong organic growth and cash flow generation of the business has allowed AFG to pay a Special Dividend of 12 cents per share.

AFG Securities completed a successful $350m Residential Mortgage Backed Securities (RMBS) issue in October 2017, which underlined the performance of the AFG Securities business.

AFG’s commercial business experienced loan book growth in all states despite softer settlements.

The overall commercial loan book grew by 14% to $7.2 billion. This growth has been driven by a 6% increase in sub-$5m commercial mortgage settlements and a 26% increase in asset finance.

Settlements slipped in NSW, but grew in VIC.

AFG Business has a current panel of five core lenders aimed at the small to medium enterprise (SME) market. Further business lending lines will be added as the platform is rolled out to more brokers looking to diversify their offering.

AFG had over 2,900 active brokers at 31 December 2017, further extending AFG’s national distribution network providing quality lending solutions and service to consumers. Growth continues to be strong in NSW and Victoria, offset by weaker conditions in other states.

The return on equity was 33% and they announced an interim dividend of 4.7c per share fully franked plus a special dividend of 12c per share fully franked

The Shifting Sands of the Mortgage Industry

The latest AFG Mortgage Index just released, to December 2017,  really highlights some of the transitions underway in the industry. While the view is myopic ( as its only their data) it is useful.

First, there has been an astonishing drop in the number of interest only loans being written, from 60% of volume in 2015, to 20% now – WOW! We also see a small rise in first time buyer volumes, as expected. So the regulatory intervention is having some impact.

But, the second chart shows the volume of lodgements rising but the average loans size rising (faster than income and inflation). Victoria stands out as the state to watch with an increase in average loan size over the past 12 months nearly double the size of the increase in New South Wales. So more still needs to be done on the regulatory front.

The share of the majors banks is falling, as we have seen from other data, as smaller players and non-banks pick up the slack.

Here is their commentary:

As the year drew to a close, Victoria stands out as the state to watch with an increase in average loan size over the past 12 months nearly double the size of the increase in New South Wales.

“There has been a lot of focus on Sydney house prices, and therefore mortgage sizes, but homebuyers in Victoria are seeing the biggest increases,” explained AFG CEO David Bailey. “In Victoria, the average mortgage size has jumped 3.2% in the final quarter of 2017 to now be sitting at $496,815.”

The increase in the last 12 months for Victoria was $20,385 compared to $10,662 for NSW. With the average NSW mortgage already substantially higher than in Victoria, the increase over the last 12 months was 4.3% for Victorians compared to 1.8% for those buyers in NSW.

“The average loan size in New South Wales is now $613,084. Queensland has increased by 3.4% to now be sitting at $416,921. South Australia is up 3.4% to $390,706. The Northern Territory is up 22% to $469,502, albeit from a low volume. Reflecting the challenges being encountered by the WA economy, the state’s average loan size is down 1.1% to $439,944.

Overall, the national average loan size is up 2.8% over the past 12 months.

“Fixed rate products have dropped back to 21.9% of the market after a high of 26.5% last quarter and First Home Buyers are sitting steady at 13% for the second consecutive quarter.

“What is noticeable is that the majors are continuing to lose ground to the non-majors, as borrowers increasingly look at alternatives to the major bank owned brands. The majors have 64.2% of the market compared to the non-majors sitting at 35.8%,” said Mr Bailey.

“Whilst tightened lending criteria continues to impact the market, particularly with respect to refinancers, our overall volumes compared to prior year remain strong. Refinancers now represent just 22% of the market. Investors have also been caught in the cross-hairs and have dropped to 28%.”

As they turn away from Investors, the majors are proving competitive for First Home Buyers (69.6%). Overall, Upgraders are proving attractive to lenders and now represent 44% of the market.

“Interest rate and lending policy changes have meant many clients are turning to their mortgage broker for help to understand what the changes may mean for them,” said Mr Bailey.

“Individual circumstances are assessed differently by lenders, so having the insight into which lender may be the right fit for your needs is vital to a consumer looking for finance. A mortgage broker is uniquely placed to have that information.

Majors Mortgage Share Slips – AFG

AFG has today released Competition index figures for the final quarter
of 2017. Whilst this is a skewed result, reflecting traffic through AFG only, it is a reasonable bellwether.

Once again, Australia’s major lenders have taken a hit with their market share now down to a post-GFC low of 62.57% of the mortgage market. The majors lost ground in all categories since the time of the last AFG Competition Index, including a drop of more than 3% in refinancing and more than 2% in fixed rates.

AFG General Manager – Broker and Residential Mark Hewitt explained the results: “The major banks have been under intense scrutiny by government and the regulators and it is probably no wonder if they have been distracted,” he said.

“With the recently announced Royal Commission into the banking sector we all hope lenders can respond whilst still maintaining a focus on their customers.

The Royal Commission, and the industry need to focus on how competition can be further improved and this should include the impact the government guarantee has on competition.

“The Westpac group as a whole were the only ones to make up any ground, up from 19.19% at the time of the last AFG Competition Index to finish the quarter at 20.33%.

ANZ lost the most ground amongst the major banks, down 3.5% for the quarter.

The non-majors now enjoy a market share of 37.43%.

“The non-majors picking up market share were Macquarie, with an increase from 2.91% to 4.70% and AFG Home Loans with a lift from 8.88% to 10.15%,” concluded Mr Hewitt.

AFG Highlights The Number Of Mortgage Broker Related Investigations

AFG has today called on the banking Royal Commission to recognise the significant inquiries that have already been conducted into the mortgage broking sector and the important role mortgage brokers play in the Australian lending market, as the government outlines the inclusion of mortgage brokers in the scope of the banking Royal Commission.

“The mortgage broking channel accounts for more than 53% of the Australian lending market so it is unsurprising that we are in the mix, however 2017 has also been marked by significant regulatory scrutiny of our industry,” said AFG CEO David Bailey.

“The ASIC Review of mortgage broker remuneration and the ongoing Productivity Commission inquiry into competition in the financial system have both looked at the structure of the mortgage broking sector.

“We are confident Justice Hayne will recognise the unprecedented data collection process conducted by ASIC in their Review of mortgage broker remuneration has thoroughly examined our industry.

“The ASIC report recognised the important role that mortgage brokers can play in promoting good consumer outcomes and strong competition in the home loan market and we are confident any other examination of our sector would find the same,” said Mr Bailey.

The Combined Industry Forum (CIF), made up of representatives from across the mortgage industry, has submitted a report to government that outlines a package of reforms to address the proposals made in the ASIC review.

“The Productivity Commission is also undertaking a significant examination of the competitive landscape and mortgage brokers are a key lynchpin in providing that competition.

“The Royal Commission, and the industry as a whole, needs to focus on how competition can be further improved and this should include the impact the government guarantee has on competition.

“Ultimately, the findings of this inquiry should assist the government to promote a competitive and stable financial industry that contributes to Australia’s productivity,” said Mr Bailey.

“The mortgage broking sector provides vital competition to deliver on that aim.

“AFG has 45 lenders on its panel with more than 37% of borrowings going to lenders other than the four major banks, and we remain committed to ensuring choice and competition remains for Australian consumers.

“This competitive tension ensures consumers continue to have choice and most importantly benefit in terms of home loan price and service because of the service brokers deliver on a daily basis across the Australian lending market,” he concluded.

Regulator Activity Begins To Bite – AFG

AFG’s latest Mortgage Index results released today shows that major structural change in the Australian lending landscape is continuing. Whilst it is a view from their loan throughput, it underscores the market evolution, and that Victoria is the last bastion of the property sector.

“Today’s results paint a very different picture from this time last year,” said AFG CEO David Bailey.

“Regulator-led tightening of investor lending has led to a further drop in investor volume and they are now sitting at an all time low of 29% of the market.

The shift in lender appetite from investors to upgraders is also evident in average loan size. “The national average home loan is now sitting at an all time high of $491,000,” said Mr Bailey. “This increase can be explained by the fact that people generally spend more for their primary place of residence than they do for an investment property.

The number of people looking to refinance has dropped to 25%, whilst those keen to upgrade their living situation is increasing with upgraders now representing 41% of the market.

“This is also likely to be a reflection of the lack of lending options on the table for investors wanting to refinance, as lenders pull back from the investor market to meet regulator demands,” said Mr Bailey.

The major lenders’ share of the market is also down to a post-GFC low of 64.4% as borrowers continue to explore alternatives outside of the major bank owned brands.

“Looking at loan type, fixed rates are now at 26.3% of all loans which confirms many Australians are anticipating that the next interest rate move will be up” said Mr Bailey.

First home buyers are enjoying their third consecutive quarter in double digits since the beginning of 2014. “National market share for first home buyers has lifted to 13% across the last quarter, helped in part by new stamp duty concessions kicking in on July 1 for this segment of the market in Victoria and New South Wales.”

Victoria continues to set the pace with lodgement volumes in that state up 27% on the first quarter of last year whilst every other state has lost momentum to varying degrees. The strength of the Victorian home market is also evidenced in the average loan size for that state, which is 5% higher than it was at the same time last year.

“Overall, volumes are up on the previous two quarters, however, compared to the same time last year they are flat. This translates into the view that regulator-led changes are being felt everywhere except Victoria,” concluded Mr Bailey.

Majors Assert Their Mortgage Origination Strength

The latest edition of the AFG Competition Index, to August 2017 shows that after some weak results, the majors are back in force. So much for macroprudential! Of course this may be myopic, as it looks at deal flow through the AFG prism, but we suspect not.

In a sign of renewed commitment to the broker channel, major lenders have taken back control from the non majors with a lift in market share across the last month according to the latest AFG Competition Index.

“After a low of 63.39% in June 2017, the majors have risen each month to round out the quarter at 65.90%,” said AFG General Manager of Residential and Broker Mark Hewitt.

“Fixed rate products have recorded the largest increase with the majors now claiming 74.8% share in this category. ANZ is taking the lion’s share of fixed rate business jumpingfrom 10.51% in June to 20.82% by the end of the quarter,” he said. This rise has largely been at the expense of Westpac, which recorded a drop of more than 7% over the same period.

“Westpac also fell back in the Investor category, dropping from 16.92% in June to 12.91% at the end of August. ANZ have also taken the lead in this category, with a lift from 13.22% to 19.99% over the quarter.

“ANZ is also appealing to those seeking to refinance,” he said. “Their market share amongst refinancers has jumped from 15.22% to 18.5% across the quarter.

Amongst the other major lenders, CBA rebounded from 12.45% total share at the start the start of the quarter to finish on 14.25%.

In the non-major category, AFG Home Loans finished the quarter with a market share of 8.85% as a result of share gains in refinancing, investor and first home buyer categories.

Suncorp also proved competitive over the quarter averaging almost 5% total market share.

“AFG also welcomes Credit Union Australia (CUA) and Homeloans Limited to our panel and we look forward to introducing these lenders to our brokers”.

“The presence of these additional leading non-major lenders provide increased choice for consumers looking for finance,” he said.