APRA Waiting For Global Capital Developments Before Acting

In Wayne Byres speech today to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, there was a clear indication that they would wait for the results of the international work of changes to capital rules before doing much locally. Meantime they will continue to talk to the local banks about sound lending practice. Too little, to late in my view. We need to move beyond a fixation on financial stability.

Sound Lending Practices for Housing

When we made our last appearance, we were still contemplating potential actions with respect to emerging risks in the housing market. We have since written to all authorised deposit-taking institutions (or ADIs) encouraging them to maintain sound lending standards, and identified some benchmarks that APRA supervisors will be using in deciding whether additional supervisory action – such as higher capital requirements – might be warranted.

I would like to emphasise that, in alerting ADIs to our concerns in this area, we are seeking to ensure emerging risks and imbalances do not get out of hand. We are not targeting house price levels – as I have said elsewhere, that is beyond our mandate – and we are not at this point asking banks to materially reduce their lending.  We have identified some areas where we have set benchmarks that we think will be useful indicators of where risk could be building, and in doing so, will help reinforce sound lending practices amongst all ADIs.  We are currently assessing the plans and practices of individual ADIs and, over the next month or so, will be considering whether any supervisory action is needed. So far, our discussions with the major lenders have suggested they recognise it is in everyone’s interests for sound lending standards to be maintained.  But we shall see – we are ready to take further action if needed.

Financial System Inquiry

Beyond this immediate issue, we are also giving thought to the more fundamental issues in relation to ADI capital contained in the recommendations of the Financial System Inquiry. There are two key influences on how we will proceed on these issues: first, the submissions made through the Government’s consultation process, and second, the work still underway on a number of related issues in the international standard-setting bodies, particularly the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.

Helpfully, the FSI and the international work are pointing us in the same direction. There are, however, complexities in the detail that we need to work through carefully. In terms of timing, we do not need to wait for every i to be dotted and t to be crossed in the international work before we turn our minds to an appropriate response to the FSI’s recommendations.  But it will be in everyone’s interests if, over the next few months, we are able to glean a better sense of some of the likely outcomes of the international work before we make too many decisions on proposed changes to the Australian capital adequacy framework.

Conflicts Management in Superannuation

When we last appeared before this Committee, we spent some of our time discussing the management of conflicts of interest in the superannuation industry. Since the introduction of prudential standards for superannuation in 2013, APRA has been assessing how well trustees have adjusted to the heightened expectations placed upon them, with a particular focus on conflicts management. The main message from our recent review in this area is that, while there have been improvements across the industry and some trustees have established quite good practices, others still have more work to do to meet the objectives of the prudential standard. Unfortunately, we still see instances where actual and potential conflicts are viewed very narrowly: a minimalist, compliance-based approach is taken to the design of conflicts management frameworks, rather than an approach that seeks to meet the spirit and intent of the requirements. Some trustees also take a reactive approach to dealing with conflicts, rather than ensuring regular and appropriate prior consideration of conflicts and a proactive approach to their effective management.

APRA’s supervisors are engaging with the entities that were covered by the review to ensure that appropriate and timely action is taken on any specific issues that were identified. We are also issuing a general letter to the industry, providing the key findings from the review and identifying a range of specific questions for trustees to consider in reviewing and enhancing their conflicts management frameworks. APRA will continue to focus on conflicts management as part of its future supervision activities, and will continue to push the industry to meet the enhanced governance and risk management expectations set out in our standards.

Private Health Insurance

Finally, let me make a quick comment on private health insurance. As you would be aware, APRA is not currently the prudential regulator of private health insurance – the Private Health Insurance Administration Council (PHIAC) performs that function – but we are preparing to take on that task from 1 July 2015, assuming the passage of the relevant legislation. For our part, we are working closely with PHIAC and other stakeholders, and will be ready to take on these new responsibilities. We are proposing only the minimum change necessary to the prudential standards and rules to align them with the proposed new legislation – in practice, health insurers should notice very little difference in their prudential arrangements from 1 July. But, even though the impact of the change may not be particularly noticeable, we would stress that a lot of work has gone into the preparations and it is in everyone’s interest that the momentum is not lost. APRA, PHIAC staff and industry will all benefit from the certainty provided by that.

Loan Portfolio Analysis To January 2015 – Where APRA May Look

The Monthly Banking Statistics from APRA, released late last week, shows some interesting trends across the loans portfolios of individual banks in the sector. It of course does not include the non-banks. A number of smaller players are likely to gain APRA’s attention.

Looking first at the year on year portfolio movements for investment home loans, (of interest given APRA’s recent statements “strong growth in lending to property investors — portfolio growth materially above a threshold of 10 per cent will be an important risk indicator for APRA supervisors in considering the need for further action”), we see a market average (Jan-Jan) of 12%. But there are significant differences between players, with several above 20% growth, CBA at 15%, NAB at 12%, Suncorp at 11% and Westpac at 10%.

MBSYOYINVMovementsJan2015Looking at owner occupied loans, the market grew at 5.6%, with significant portfolio variations, including Members Equity at 13%, Bendigo and Adelaide at 9%, and Suncorp at 7%. Remember, these are net portfolio movements, (allowing for new loans, and existing loan run-off. Macquarie stands out, but that is because of the $1.5 billion portfolio of non-branded mortgages they purchased from ING in September.

MBSYOYOOMovementsJan2015 In January, the portfolio grew by 0.42% for owner occupied loans to $859,645 bn, whilst investment loans grew 0.76% to $462,358 bn. Investment loans make up 35% of the bank’s portfolios. Total lending was up by $7,107 Bn. Looking at the current share of loans, there was little change in mix, with CBA the largest owner occupied loans provider, and Westpac the largest investment loan provider.

MBSHomeLoansShareJan2015We see Macquarie, AMP and Heritage Buildoing Society growing their loan portfolios the fastest last month.

MBSHomeLoansMonthlyMovementsJan2015Turning to deposits, they grew by 0.61% in the month, up $10,948 bn, to $1,807,882 bn. There was little change in the overall portfolio, with CBA still holding nearly a quarter of the market.

MBSDepositSharesJan2015However, looking at the portfolio movements, we see the smaller players, like Bendigo ING, Rabobank and HSBC growing faster compared with the main players. This represents differential deposit discounting which has been in play, thanks to beguine wholesale markets, and competition for deposits easing – bad news for depositors, and rates continue to fall.

MBSDepositMovementsJaqn2015Finally, credit card balances fell slightly in the month (after the Christmas splurge) down $824 bn to $41,002 bn. Little change in the footprint of the major players.

MBSCardsJanuary2015

 

Groupthink Stems From The Council of Financial Regulators

Behind the scenes, it is the mysterious Council of Financial Regulators which is coordinating activity across the Reserve Bank, APRA, AISC and Treasury. This body, is the conductor of the regulatory orchestra, and although formed initially in 1998, it has only had an independent website since 2013.  It is the coordinating body for Australia’s main financial regulatory agencies. It is a non-statutory body whose role is to contribute to the efficiency and effectiveness of financial regulation and to promote stability of the Australian financial system. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) chairs the Council and members include the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), and The Treasury. The Council of Financial Regulators (CFR) comprises two representatives – the chief executive and a senior representative – from each of these four member agencies.

The CFR meets in person quarterly or more often if circumstances require it. The meetings are chaired by the RBA Governor, with secretariat support provided by the RBA. In the CFR, members share information, discuss regulatory issues and, if the need arises, coordinate responses to potential threats to financial stability. The CFR also advises Government on the adequacy of Australia’s financial regulatory arrangements. A formal charter was only adopted on 13 January 2014.

The Council of Financial Regulators (CFR) aims to facilitate cooperation and collaboration between the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and The Treasury. Its ultimate objectives are to contribute to the efficiency and effectiveness of regulation and to promote stability of the Australian financial system.

The CFR provides a forum for:

  • identifying important issues and trends in the financial system, including those that may impinge upon overall financial stability;
  • ensuring the existence of appropriate coordination arrangements for responding to actual or potential instances of financial instability, and helping to resolve any issues where members’ responsibilities overlap; and
  • harmonising regulatory and reporting requirements, paying close attention to the need to keep regulatory costs to a minimum.

So, given the intended independence of the RBA, from Government, there is an important question to consider. How can this be seen to be true? More likely, we think there is significant potential for groupthink. In addition, no minutes of discussions are made public. We think its time for greater transparency and openness.

Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants; electric light the most efficient policeman” said U.S. Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis. We agree.

APRA, Start Disclosing Better Data

Each quarter APRA publishes Property Exposure for ADI’s and at first blush it looks like useful data. However, it does not provide the right lens on the the data, so some critical dimensions are missing completely.

First, we get nothing at all about Loan to Income ratios, either at a portfolio or new written loan level, when this is regarded as an essential tool is assessing true risks.

Second, we need a split between the key characteristics of investment loans versus owner occupied loans. What share are interest only loans, and how does the LVR splits stand between the owner occupied and investment sector? How do loan sizes compare between the two types?

Third, DFA believes, in the interests of good disclosure, and also as part of macroprudential management, the data should be provided at the individual lender level. They already do this for the monthly banking statistics. We know that some banks are more exposed to investment lending (and potentially exceeding 10% growth), yet the whole situation is opaque.

It is really time for proper disclosure, rather than myopic slices of data (even if contained in multiple layered spreadsheets) which mask as much as they hide. Come on APRA, lets get to the true picture.

 

$40.1 Billion (43.0 per cent) Interest-only Loans Written In 4Q 2014

APRA released their quarterly Property Exposure data to December 2014 today. We see continued strong growth in interest only loans. From DFA research we know these are mostly investment loans, despite the fact that APRA does not split out loan characteristics by investment and owner occupation. We think they should.

At a portfolio level, as at 31 December 2014, the total of residential term loans to households held by all ADIs was $1.28 trillion. This is an increase of $28.3 billion (2.3 per cent) on 30 September 2014 and an increase of $105.4 billion (9.0 per cent) on 31 December 2013. Owner-occupied loans accounted for 65.7 per cent of residential term loans to households. Owner-occupied loans were $840 billion, an increase of $14.8 billion (1.8 per cent) on 30 September 2014 and $57.6 billion (7.4 per cent) on 31 December 2013. Investment loans accounted for 34.3 per cent of residential term loans. Investment loans were $438.9 billion, an increase of $13.6 billion (3.2 per cent) on 30 September 2014 and $47.8 billion (12.2 per cent) on 31 December 2013.

Looking across the various types of ADI:

  • major banks held $1,037.3 billion of residential term loans, an increase of $23.0 billion (2.3 per cent) on 30 September 2014 and $83.7 billion (8.8 per cent) on 31 December 2013;
  • other domestic banks held $142.6 billion, an increase of $7.2 billion (5.3 per cent) on 30 September 2014 and $20.5 billion (16.8 per cent) on 31 December 2013;
  • foreign subsidiary banks held $54.3 billion, a decrease of $0.6 billion (1.1 per cent) on 30 September 2014 and an increase of $1.3 billion (2.5 per cent) on 31 December 2013;
  • building societies held $16.6 billion, an increase of $0.0 billion (0.1 per cent) on 30 September 2014 and a decrease of $0.1 billion (0.6 per cent) on 31 December 2013; and
  • credit unions held $27.9 billion, a decrease of $1.3 billion (4.5 per cent) on 30 September 2014 and an increase of $0.0 billion (0.1 per cent) on 31 December 2013.

Note that the higher growth of other domestic banks and lower growth of building societies and credit unions is in part due to the conversion of eight credit unions and one building society to banks.

ADIs with greater than $1 billion of residential term loans held 98.4 per cent of all residential term loans as at 31 December 2014. These ADIs reported 5.2 million loans totalling $1.26 trillion. The average loan size was approximately $241,000, compared to $234,000 as at 31 December 2013; $463.8 billion (36.9 per cent) were interest-only loans; and $31.5 billion (2.5 per cent) were low-documentation loans.

APRA-ADILoanPortfolioDec2014ADIs with greater than $1 billion of residential term loans approved $93.2 billion of new loans in the quarter ending 31 December 2014. This is an increase of $7.8 billion (9.2 per cent) on the quarter ending 30 September 2014 and $9.1 billion (10.8 per cent) on the quarter ending 31 December 2013. $58.4 billion (62.7 per cent) were for owner-occupied loans, an increase of $4.9 billion (9.2 per cent) from the quarter ending 30 September 2014; $34.8 billion (37.3 per cent) were for investment loans, an increase of $2.9 billion (9.1 per cent) from the quarter ending 30 September 2014;

Brokers accounted for 44.7% of loans by value, a record, since 2008. They reached an all time high of 46.7% prior to the GFC. However, if you take loan size into account, brokers continue to have a field day at the moment, thanks to high volumes and high commissions.

APRA-ADILoanNewDec2014$10.6 billion (11.4 per cent) had a loan-to-valuation ratio greater than or equal to 90 per cent; and $0.6 billion (0.7 per cent) were low-documentation loans.

APRA-ADILoanNewLVRDec2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

Super Now Worth $1.93 Trillion

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) today released its December 2014 Quarterly Superannuation Performance publication and December 2014 Quarterly MySuper Statistics report. At 31 December 2014, total assets, which include the assets of self-managed superannuation funds and the balance of life office statutory funds, rose to $1.93 trillion, an increase of 9.3 per cent from the December 2013 quarter.

Contributions to funds with more than four members over the December 2014 quarter were $26.1 billion, up 15.3 per cent from the December 2013 quarter ($22.7 billion).  Total contributions for the year ending December 2014 were $100.6 billion.

There were $15.2 billion in total benefit payments in the December 2014 quarter, an increase of 9.4 per cent from the December 2013 quarter ($13.9 billion).  Total benefit payments for the year ending December 2014 were $56.4 billion.

Net contribution flows (contributions plus net rollovers less benefit payments) totalled $10 billion in the December 2014 quarter, an increase of 14.9 per cent from the December 2013 quarter ($8.7 billion).  Net contribution flows for the year ending December 2014 were $39.4 billion.

APRA has revised the method of segmentation it uses for these reports.  The segments that APRA most commonly uses for superannuation are fund types. These fund types comprise corporate funds, industry funds, public sector funds, retail funds and small superannuation funds. These segments, based on RSE licensee profit status and the membership base of the funds. These segments, based on RSE licensee profit status and the membership base of the funds, are shown below.

APRA-SuperFund-Segmentation-Dec-2014Corporate funds are RSEs with more than four members under the trusteeship of a ‘not for profit’ RSE licensee and with a corporate membership basis.
Industry funds are RSEs with more than four members under the trusteeship of a ‘not for profit’ RSE licensee and with either an industry or general membership base.
Public sector funds are RSEs with more than four members under the trusteeship of a ‘not for profit’ RSE licensee and with a government base membership base. Public sector funds also include superannuation schemes established by a Commonwealth, State or Territory law (known as exempt public sector superannuation schemes).
Retail funds are RSEs with more than four members under the trusteeship of a ‘for profit’ RSE licensee with a corporate, industry or general membership basis.
Small funds are superannuation entities with fewer than five members and include small APRA funds (SAFs), single-member approved deposit funds and self-managed superannuation funds (SMSFs). SMSFs are regulated by the ATO and have different legislative requirements than APRA regulated funds.

Of the 258 entities in existence at 31 December 2014, there are 45 cases where the fund type is different under the new segmentation methodology. In these cases, APRA analysed the information reported to APRA, the structure of the fund and composition of the RSE licensee as well as other prudential information. APRA also drew on publicly available information and consulted RSE licensees in the cases where the information reported on SRF 001.0 was inconsistent. Following this further analysis, of the 45 entities:

  • 38 entities were re-classified from corporate to retail;
  • four entities were re-classified from industry to retail;
  • one entity was re-classified from retail to industry;
  • one entity was re-classified from corporate to public sector; and
  • one entity was re-classified from industry to public sector.

After the review of fund types, retail funds’ assets increased from $502 billion to $516 billion and account for 39 per cent of total superannuation assets as at 31 December 2014. Industry funds’ assets decreased by $15 billion from $418 billion to $403 billion and account for 31 per cent of total superannuation assets as at 31 December 2014. Public sector funds’ assets increased by $15 billion to $335 billion (to 26 per cent of total superannuation assets), while corporate funds’ assets decreased from $63 billion to $58 billion (to four per cent of total superannuation assets).

 

Another Bumper Month For Home Loans

APRA just released their monthly banking statistics, which provides a view of lending and deposit portfolios from the banks (ADI’s). Overall home lending by the banks rose $9.12 billion to $1.315 trillion. Owner Occupied loans grew by 0.59% and Investment Loans by 0.9%, with Owner Occupied Lending now accounting for 65.1% of the loan book (down from 65.2% last month). Looking in more detail at the individual bank data, we see that CBA maintains its leading position in the Owner Occupied sector, whilst WBC leads the Investment Property Lending.

HomeLendingSharesDec2014Looking at the trend data, we see stronger investment lending growth at WBC, and to a lesser extent at the other majors.

HomeLendingTrendsDec2014In portfolio percentage terms, Members Equity registered 3% growth, with Macquarrie at 2% and Suncorp and AMP at 1.8%, all above system growth.

HomeLendingMOMPCDec2014Turning to deposits, we saw growth of 1.37% in the month, to $1.8 trillion. CBA holds the largest share of deposits, with WBC and NAB following.

DepositsShareDec2014Looking at the monthly portfolio movements, we see CBA recorded portfolio growth of 1.6%, whilst WBC was 0.29%. Rabbobank grew their portfolio by 1.69%, whilst Macquarie and ING both grew their portfolios by 1.55%. We suspect some players are actively managing their deposits preferring to use wholesale funding alternatives, as we have discussed before.

DepositsMonthyMovementsDec2014Looking at credit cards, balances rose 1.9% to $41.8 billion. There was little overall change in portfolio mix amongst the main players, and Citigroup maintained in position at number 5.

CardsShareDec2014

APRA To Regulate Private Health Insurers

The Treasury has today released an Exposure Draft that will establish APRA as the prudential regulator of the private health insurance industry. This is part of the Smaller Government – additional reductions in the number of Australian Government bodies initiative announced as part of the 2014-15 Budget. The Private Health Insurance Administration Council (PHIAC) will cease as a separate body and its prudential supervisory functions will be transferred to the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA). The transfer of PHIAC’s prudential supervisory functions will be given effect by the Exposure Draft Private Health Insurance (Prudential Supervision) Bill 2015 (Exposure Draft Bill) which will represent a new Act for the regulation of private health insurers, administered by APRA. The main changes are:

  • the registration of private health insurers and the prevention of entities not registered from carrying on a health related business
  • requirement for private health insurers to have health benefits funds and obligations relating to the operation of such funds
  • restructure, merger, acquisition and termination of health benefits funds
  • appointment of an external manager of a health benefit fund and the powers and duties of external managers and terminating managers
  • duties and liabilities of directors
  • establishment of prudential standards and directions by APRA and the requirements for health benefits funds to comply with such standards and directions
  • obligations of private health insurers such as the appointment of actuaries and reporting and notification requirements
  • APRA’s ability to supervise compliance by private health insurers with their obligations and APRA’s enforcement powers
  • enforceable undertakings
  • APRA’s ability to seek remedies for a contravention for an enforceable obligation
  • review of APRA’s decisions by the Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT)
  • ability of APRA to give approvals and make determinations and rules

Treasury is seeking feedback by 30th January.

Latest Banking Statistics

Last week saw the release of the November data from both the RBA and APRA. Looking at the overall summary data first, total credit grew by 5.9% in the year to November 2014. Housing lending grew at 7.1%, business lending at 4.6%, and personal credit by 1.1%.

LendingNoiv2014Looking at home lending, in seasonally adjusted terms, total loans on book rose to $1.42 trillion, with owner occupied loans at $932 billion, and investment loans at $483 billion, which equals 34.2%, a record.

HomeLendingNov2014From the APRA data, loans by ADI’s were $1.31 trillion, with 34.82% investment loans, which grew at 0.84% in the month. Looking at relative shares, CBA continues to hold the largest owner occupied portfolio, whilst WBC holds the largest investment portfolio.

HomeLendingSharesNov2014Looking at relative movement, WBC increased their investment portfolio the most in dollar terms. CBA lifted their owner occupied portfolio the most.

HomeLendingPortfolioMovementsNov2014Turning to deposits, they rose 0.39% in the month, to 1.78 trillion.

DepositSharesNov2014There was little change in relative market share, though we noted a small drop at nab, which relates to their cutting deposit rates from their previous market leading position.

DepositChangesPortfolioNov2014Finally, looking at the cards portfolios, the value of the market portfolio rose by $627 billion, to $41,052 billion. There were only minor portfolio movements between the main players.

CardsShareNov2014

Housing Finance Regulation – Tweaked, Not Reformed

Fresh on the heels of the FSI report, the core thesis of which is that the Australian Banks are too big to fail, so capital buffers must be increased to protect Australia from potential risks in a down turn (a “mild” crash could lead to the loss of 900,000 jobs and a $1-2 trillion or more cost to the economy), it was interesting to see the publication yesterday by APRA of the guidelines for mortgage lending, and ASIC’s targetting interest only loans. This action is coordinated via the Council of Financial Regulators (CFR). This body is the conductor of the regulatory orchestra, and has only had an independant website since 2013.  It is the coordinating body for Australia’s main financial regulatory agencies. It is a non-statutory body whose role is to contribute to the efficiency and effectiveness of financial regulation and to promote stability of the Australian financial system. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) chairs the Council and members include the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), and The Treasury. The CFR meets in person quarterly or more often if circumstances require it. The meetings are chaired by the RBA Governor, with secretariat support provided by the RBA. In the CFR, members share information, discuss regulatory issues and, if the need arises, coordinate responses to potential threats to financial stability. The CFR also advises Government on the adequacy of Australia’s financial regulatory arrangements.

Whilst FSI recommended beefing up ASIC, and introducing a formal regulatory review body, it did not fundamentally disrupt the current arrangements. Interestingly, CFR is a direct interface between the “independent” RBA and Government.

So, lets consider the announcements yesterday. None of the measures are pure macroprudential, but APRA is reinforcing lending standards by introducing potential supervisory triggers (which if breached may lead to more capital requirements, or other steps) using an affordability floor of 7% or more (meaning if product interest rates fell further, banks could not assume a fall in serviceability requirements) and at least an assumed rise in rates of 2% from current loan product rates. In addition, any lender growing their investment lending book by more than 10% p.a. will be subject to additional focus (though APRA makes the point this is not a hard limit). These guidelines relate to new business, and does not directly impact loans already on book (though refinancing is an interesting question, will existing borrowers who refinance be subject to new lending assessment criteria?) ASIC is focussing on interest-only loans, which are growing fast, and are often related to investment lending.

The banks currently have different policies with regards to serviceability buffers. Analysts are looking at Westpac in the light of these announcements, because it grew its investment housing lending book fast, uses 180 basis points serviceability buffer and an interest rate floor of 6.8%. Investment property loans make up ~45% of WBC’s housing loan portfolio (compared with the majors average of ~36%), and has grown at ~12% year on year this financial year (compared with the average across the majors of ~10%). WBC made some interesting comments in their recent investor presentation relating to investment loans, highlighting that investors tended to have higher incomes than owner occupied loans.

WBCInvestorDec2014Other banks have different underwriting formulations with buffers of between 1.5% and 2.25% buffers. ASIC has of course also stressed that lenders must consider borrowers ability to repay and take account other expenditure. There is evidence of the “quiet word from the regulator” working as recently we have noted some slowing investment lending at WBC (currently they would be below the 10% threshold) and amongst some other lenders too. However, some of the smaller lenders may be impacted by APRA guidance, given stronger recent growth.

What does this all mean. First, we see now what APRA meant in their earlier remarks “collecting additional information, counselling the more aggressive lenders, and seeking assurances from Boards of our lenders that they are actively monitoring lending standards. We’re about to finalise guidance on what we see as sound mortgage lending practice”. Second, we do not think this will materially slow down housing investment lending, and this is probably what the RBA wants, given its belief consumer spending should replace mining investment as a source of growth.  The regulators are trying to manage potential risks in the system, by targetting higher risk lending whilst letting housing lending continue to run. Third, it leaves open the door to macroprudential later if needed. Lastly, existing borrowers may be loathe to churn if they are now required to meet additional buffers. This may slow refinancing, and increase longevity of loans in portfolio (and loans held longer are more profitable for the banks).