The CPI rose 0.7 per cent in the September quarter 2016

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3 per cent through the year to September quarter 2016, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures. This is a rise from 1% last time, and higher than expected. However much of the rise is a reaction to recent bad wealth with the prices of fruit and vegetables higher. This is a temporary effect.

Nevertheless, the RBA trimmed mean remains at 1.7%, and probably means no rate cut in the near future.

The CPI rose 0.7 per cent in the September quarter 2016. This follows a rise of 0.4 per cent in the June quarter 2016. This quantum is towards the higher end of expectations.

cpi-sept-2016-trend-statesSydney had the highest movement at 1%. Housing, and furnishings helped to lift the number here, as well as rising fruit and vegetables prices.

cpi-sept-2016-last-qNationally, the most significant price rises this quarter are fruit (+19.5 per cent), vegetables (+5.9 per cent), electricity (+5.4 per cent) and tobacco (+2.3 per cent). These rises are partially offset by falls in communication (-2.3 per cent) and fuel (-2.9 per cent).

cpi-sept-2016-mixThe rise in fruit and vegetable prices is due to adverse weather conditions, including floods, in major growing areas, impacting supply.

Inflation subdued in the June quarter 2016

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4 per cent in the June quarter 2016, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures.

The RBA will probably take this as a signal to cut the cash rate again next week, despite the fact that evidence is mounting that rate cutting at these low interest rate levels will not help much, and create a problem down the track. In fact we should ask if a 2-3% target for inflation is meaningful anymore. Worth reading Mark Carney, Governor, Bank of England comments on this subject. Low inflation appears to carry significant risks, and low interest rates do not help.

CPI-2016-JunThis follows a fall of 0.2 per cent in the March quarter 2016.

The most significant price rises this quarter are in medical and hospital services (+4.2 per cent), automotive fuel (+5.9 per cent) and tobacco (+2.1 per cent). These rises are partially offset by falls in domestic holiday travel and accommodation (–3.7 per cent), motor vehicles (–1.3 per cent) and telecommunication equipment and services (–1.5 per cent).

The increase of 4.2 per cent for medical and hospital services was driven by the annual increase in Private Health Insurance (PHI) premiums, which rise on 1 April every year.

The increase of 5.9 per cent for automotive fuel follows three consecutive quarterly falls, with the rise driven by increases in unleaded, premium and ethanol fuels, as world oil prices increased from a 12-year low last quarter.

The CPI rose 1.0 per cent through the year to the June quarter 2016. This is the weakest annual rise since the June quarter 1999.

There are interesting state variations, with Brisbane recording 1.5 per cent, and Darwin 0 per cent this time.

June-2106-State-CPI

 

Consumer Price Index falls 0.2 per cent

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.2 per cent in the March quarter 2016 according to latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

This follows a rise of 0.4 per cent in the December quarter 2015.

The CPI rose 1.3 per cent through the year to the March quarter 2016, following a rise of 1.7 per cent through the year to the December quarter 2015.

The fall in the CPI this quarter was broad based, with six out of the eleven CPI groups recording a fall for the quarter.

The most significant fall occurred in transport (–2.5 per cent), due to automotive fuel (–10.0 per cent) falling for the third consecutive quarter.

Recreation and culture (–1.0 per cent) was the second most significant contributor, with falls in both international holiday travel and accommodation (–2.0 per cent) and domestic holiday travel and accommodation (–1.9 per cent).

Food and non–alcoholic beverages (–0.2 per cent) also fell this quarter, with fruit (–11.1 per cent) providing the most significant contribution.

These falls were partially offset by rises in secondary education (+4.6 per cent), medical and hospital services (+1.6 per cent) and pharmaceutical products (+4.8 per cent).

CPI December quarter 2015 rises 0.4 per cent

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures show the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4 per cent in the December quarter 2015, following a rise of 0.5 per cent in the September quarter 2015.

The most significant price rises this quarter were in tobacco (+7.4 per cent), domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+5.9 per cent) and international holiday travel and accommodation (+2.4 per cent). These rises were partially offset by falls in automotive fuel (–5.7 per cent), telecommunication equipment and services (–2.4 per cent) and fruit (–2.6 per cent).

The increase of 0.1 per cent for the housing group is the weakest movement since March quarter 1998 as price rises for rents (+0.2 per cent) and new dwelling purchase by owner occupiers (+0.1 per cent) have been subdued through the quarter. The 0.1 per cent rise for new dwellings purchase by owner occupiers is the weakest movement since March quarter 2014.

The CPI rose 1.7 per cent through the year to the December quarter 2015, following a rise of 1.5 per cent through the year to the September quarter 2015.

CPI September quarter 2015 rises 0.5 per cent

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures show the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5 per cent in the September quarter 2015, following a rise of 0.7 per cent in the June quarter 2015.

The most significant price rises this quarter were in international holiday travel and accommodation (+4.6 per cent), fruit (+8.2 per cent) and property rates and charges (+4.6 per cent), These rises were partially offset by falls in vegetables (–5.9 per cent), telecommunication equipment and services (–2.0 per cent) and automotive fuel (–1.7 per cent).

The CPI rose 1.5 per cent through the year to the September quarter 2015, following a rise of 1.5 per cent through the year to the June quarter 2015.

CPI-Sept-2015Underlying inflation, using the mean trimmed data, is still within the RBA 2-3% target band, so there is no reason to expect an interest rate cut on this measure in November.

Mean-Inflation-Sep-2015

CPI June Quarter 2015 Rises 0.7 per cent – ABS

The ABS released the latest CPI data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.7 per cent in the June quarter 2015, following a rise of 0.2 per cent in the March quarter 2015.

CPI-to-Jun-2105This translates to an annual CPI of 1.5 per cent through the year to the June quarter 2015, following a rise of 1.3 per cent through the year to the March quarter 2015.

Underlying inflation is still in the 2-3% RBA target range, so there would be no impact of potential cash rate movements.

Underlying-Inflation-June-2015
The most significant price rises this quarter were in automotive fuel (+12.2 per cent), medical and hospital services (+4.5 per cent) and new dwelling purchase by owner–occupiers (+1.5 per cent), These rises were partially offset by falls in domestic holiday travel and accommodation (–5.4 per cent) and pharmaceutical products (–1.8 per cent). The increase in fuel is registered in four of the five fuel types with the quarterly rise the largest since December 1990.

Core CPI Right In RBA Target Range

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2 per cent in the March quarter 2015, following a rise of 0.2 per cent in the December quarter 2014, according to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today. The CPI rose 1.3 per cent through the year to the March quarter 2015, following a rise of 1.7 per cent through the year to the December quarter 2014. The reading is flattered by a significant fall in fuel.

The underlying rate was 2.4%, right within the RBA target range, a little higher than expected, and as such it will more than likely tip the RBA in “hold” territory next month, when coupled with better than expected previous employment data, and hot Sydney property. Moreover, little evidence that a further cut would change the picture much (other than reducing savers ability to spend).

CPICoreApril2015
The most significant price rises this quarter were in domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+3.5 per cent), tertiary education (+5.7 per cent) and medical and hospital services (+2.2 per cent), These rises were partially offset by falls in automotive fuel (—12.2 per cent) and fruit (—8.0 per cent). The decrease in fuel was registered in all fuel types with the quarterly fall the largest since December 2008 and over the twelve months to March 2015, automotive fuel has decreased by 22.5 per cent. This is the largest yearly fall in the history of the series, beginning in September 1973.

CPI Down To 1.7%

According to the ABS, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in the December quarter 2014, following a rise of 0.5% in the September quarter 2014. The CPI is trending down at the moment.

CPI-Dec-2014-ALL

The most significant price rises this quarter were for domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+5.8%), tobacco (+4.8%) and new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.1%), These rises were partially offset by a fall in automotive fuel (–6.8%). Global oil markets continue to experience oversupply, which resulted in continued falls in oil prices. In Australia, average unleaded petrol prices reached a low of $1.17 per litre in December 2014, the lowest recorded average daily price since February 2009.

The CPI rose 1.7% through the year to the December quarter 2014, following a rise of 2.3% through the year to the September quarter 2014.

The fall in CPI may stimulate calls for the RBA to cut rates, but given that oil price falls already acts as a quasi rate cut, DFA believes a further cut in official rates is not required. The lower dollar and stable unemployment data also suggests there is no need for cuts, indeed, the next movement should be upwards.

Latest CPI Is Down To 2.3%

The ABS published their September CPI data.

The all groups (average across 8 capital cities) rose 0.5% in the September quarter 2014, compared with a rise of 0.5% in the June quarter 2014. On a yearly basis, the CPI rose 2.3% through the year to the September quarter 2014, compared with a rise of 3.0% through the year to the June quarter 2014.

CPI-Sept-2014The most significant price rises this quarter were for fruit (+14.7%), new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.1%), property rates and charges (+6.3%) and other services in respect of motor vehicles (+5.8%).

The most significant offsetting price falls this quarter were for electricity (-5.1%) and automotive fuel (-2.5%).

Note though that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures price change for consumption goods and services acquired by Australian resident households. The Australian Government repealed carbon pricing with effect from 1 July 2014. It is not possible to quantify the impact of removing the carbon price on the price change measured by the CPI.

This is likely to be a further sign that interest rate rises will be further delayed (there is no pressing inflation problem at the moment).  We discussed this yesterday.

 

CPI 3% Through Year To June 2014 – ABS

The ABS published the Consumer Price Index for the quarter to June 2014 today. The CPI rose 3.0% through the year to the June quarter 2014, following a rise of 2.9% through the year to the March quarter 2014. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in the June quarter 2014, following a rise of 0.6% in the March quarter 2014.

The most significant price rises this quarter were for medical and hospital services (+4.6%), new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.6%) and tobacco (+3.1%). These rises were partially offset by falls in domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-3.8%), automotive fuel (-2.7%) and telecommunication equipment and services (-1.6%).

CPIJuneThis is at the top end of the RBA target, and highlights the fact they continue to have to balance, inflation, interest rates and other factors. They are still caught in the middle. Inflation is being assisted by the higher dollar exchange rate.