Tag: DFA Live Q&A

We have updated our scenarios to take account of potential RBA rate cuts later in the year, revised mortgage stress and household confidence data and other factors. We also updated our probability allocation. Here is a summary.

Our central scenario is one of home price fall, peak to trough, of up to 30%. A deeper fall, in the event of international financial stability is also possible. We do not think the RBA has any hope of lifting rates from current emergency levels, having dropped them too low previously.

We discussed these updates during yesterdays live stream Q&A event. Here is a high quality edited version.

You can also watch the recorded “live” version, including the chat replay here:

We have revised our scenarios based on the latest data from our household surveys, and other available information.

Scenarios are a way of exploring different futures, and to consider the consequences, not as a forecast, but to facilitate understanding and debate.

None of these scenarios may turn out to be right…. Things change.

We use a framework driven from our core market model and we are going to look at the five potential outcomes, updated with the latest data and results.

Here is the summary results.

Since last time, conditions appear to have deteriorated further. We discussed this in our recent live stream event.