Tag: employment data

Employment grew by 0.07 per cent in June, consistent with the average growth rate over the last six months, according to trend figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.

The latest Labour Force data shows over the past month, trend employment increased by 8,300 persons to 11,933,400 persons. Trend full-time employment increased by 700 persons after falling for the previous four months. Part-time employment increased by 7,600 persons, its weakest monthly growth since August 2014.

“The figures show that hours worked by employed people declined, but not by as much as in previous months. This reflects the small increase in trend employment. We are yet to see an increase in hours worked in 2016,” said General Manager of the ABS’ Macroeconomic Statistics Division, Bruce Hockman.

The trend unemployment rate remained steady at 5.7 per cent. The participation rate also remained steady at 64.8 per cent.

“Trend series smooth the more volatile seasonally adjusted estimates and provide the best measure of the underlying behaviour of the labour market,” Mr Hockman said.

The seasonally adjusted number of persons employed increased by 7,900 in June 2016. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for June 2016 increased 0.1 percentage points to 5.8 per cent and the seasonally adjusted labour force participation rate increased by less than 0.1 percentage points to 64.9 per cent.

The ABS released the labour force data to March 2016. The trend unemployment rate remained at 5.8%, while the seasonally adjusted rate fell to 5.7%. This is a better result than expected by the market.

However, the ABS says trend employment growth in Australia eased from the relatively strong growth seen in late 2015.

In March 2016, the annual trend employment growth rate was 2.2 per cent, down from 2.6 per cent in December 2015 . That’s an increase of around 250,000 persons employed, compared with 300,000 persons.

“In March 2016, the trend employment to population ratio remained at 61.2 per cent. This reflects an increase over the year from 60.8 per cent to 61.2 per cent, while over the same period the unemployment rate decreased from 6.2 per cent to 5.8 per cent,” General Manager of ABS’ Macroeconomic Statistics Division, Bruce Hockman said.

Over the past month, trend employment increased by 7,700 persons to 11,910,000 persons, which equated to a monthly growth rate of 0.10 per cent. This monthly growth rate was below the monthly average over the past 20 years (0.15 per cent), and down from the rate of 0.25 per cent in September 2015.

The trend monthly hours worked in all jobs series decreased by 1.8 million hours (0.11 per cent) to 1,643.7 million hours.

The trend series smooth the more volatile seasonally adjusted estimates and provide the best measure of the underlying behaviour of the labour market.

The seasonally adjusted number of persons employed increased by 26,100 in March 2016, while the number of persons unemployed decreased by 7,300. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for March 2016 was 5.7 per cent (down 0.1 percentage points) and the seasonally adjusted labour force participation rate remained at 64.9 per cent.

The latest data from the ABS shows that both the trend and seasonally adjusted rate is sitting at 5.8%. The trend rate of decline is slowing however.

The ABS says that trend employment growth in Australia eased from the relatively strong growth seen in late 2015. In February 2016, the annual trend employment growth rate was 2.3 per cent, down from 2.6 per cent in December 2015 . That’s an increase of around 270,000 persons employed, compared with 300,000 persons.

“However, the trend employment to population ratio remained at 61.3 per cent. This reflects an increase over the year from 60.7 per cent to 61.3 per cent, while over the same period the unemployment rate decreased from 6.2 per cent to 5.8 per cent,” the ABS said.

Over the past month, trend employment increased by 11,400 persons to 11,903,100 persons, which equated to a monthly growth rate of 0.10 per cent. This monthly growth rate was below the monthly average over the past 20 years (0.15 per cent), and down from the rate of 0.26 per cent in September 2015.

The trend monthly hours worked in all jobs series increased by 2.5 million hours (0.15 per cent) to 1,653.6 million hours.

“The trend underutilisation rate, which is a quarterly measure that includes both unemployment and underemployment, decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 14.2 per cent. This decrease was observed for both males and females, predominantly reflecting decreased unemployment for males and decreased underemployment for females,” the ABS said.

The trend series smooth the more volatile seasonally adjusted estimates and provide the best measure of the underlying behaviour of the labour market.

The seasonally adjusted number of persons employed increased by 300 in February 2016, while the number of persons unemployed decreased by 27,300. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for February 2016 was 5.8 per cent (down 0.2 percentage points) and the seasonally adjusted labour force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 64.9 per cent.

The latest data from the ABS on employment trends continues to show a level of unpredictability. Whilst most analysts were expecting no change, the seasonally adjusted rate rose to 6%, up from 5.8%, whilst the trend smoothed data read 5.8% down from 5.9% in December. So you can spin the story either way…. though I expect most will select the lower results contained in the seasonally adjusted series. We prefer to follow the trend data which irons out some of the random movements which the current method creates.

Indeed, the ABS tell us that their  estimates are based on a sample survey. Published estimates and movements are subject to sampling variability. Standard errors give a measure of sampling variability. The interval bounded by two standard errors is the 95% confidence interval, which provides a way of looking at the variability inherent in estimates. There is a 95% chance that the true value of the estimate lies within that interval.

In other words, it is not clear if the small movements are significant. We suspect not. However the apparent miss may trouble the market.

The ABS tell us that in trend terms employment increased 19,800 to 11,909,900 in the month, unemployment decreased 4,400 to 739,400, unemployment rate decreased less than 0.1 pts to 5.8%, based on unrounded estimates, participation rate remained steady at 65.2% and monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 3.6 million hours to 1,652.7 million hours.

In seasonally adjusted terms, employment decreased 7,900 to 11,894,500 in the month, full-time employment decreased 40,600 to 8,185,800 and part-time employment increased 32,700 to 3,708,700,unemployment increased 30,200 to 761,400, the number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 25,600 to 544,100 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 4,600 to 217,300. The unemployment rate increased 0.2 pts to 6.0%, participation rate remained steady at 65.2%. and monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 10.9 million hours to 1,656.0 million hours.

The latest ABS data to December 2015 shows that trend employment increased to 11,893,800, unemployment decreased to 734,300, the unemployment rate decreased 0.1 pts to 5.8% and the participation rate increased less than 0.1 pts to 65.2%. But let’s not cheer – yet!

Their media release says that the strong trend growth in employment has continued.

“The trend shows that around 312,000 more people were employed in December 2015 than in December 2014. Full-time employment growth was stronger than part-time over the year, increasing by 186,600 people,” said Bruce Hockman, General Manager of ABS’ Macroeconomic Statistics Division.

The increase in employment has contributed to the trend employment to population ratio rising over the year from 60.6 per cent to 61.4 per cent, while the unemployment rate has decreased over the year from 6.2 per cent to 5.8 per cent.

Over the past month, trend employment increased by 27,500 persons to 11,893,800 persons, which translates into a monthly growth rate of 0.23 per cent. This growth rate was above the monthly average over the past 20 years (0.15 per cent), and continues the trend in relatively strong employment growth that has been seen since December 2014.

The trend series smooth the more volatile seasonally adjusted estimates and provide the best measure of the underlying behaviour of the labour market.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for December 2015 was 5.8 per cent (down 0.1 percentage points, based on unrounded estimates) and the labour force participation rate was 65.1 per cent (down 0.1 percentage points, based on unrounded estimates).

The seasonally adjusted number of persons employed was virtually unchanged in December 2015, while the number of persons unemployed decreased by 10,900.

The ABS seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked in all jobs series was relatively unchanged at 1,645.2 million hours, the ABS reported.

Two points. First the reliability of the revised methodology still remains in doubt, and we continue to see a rotation towards lower-services roles (e.g. healthcare) and away from economically productive roles. We think the underlying economic issues are being masked by the good top-line result.  And for perspective we are still seeing unemployment among younger Australians horribly higher (above 12%), and the overall rate is still above 5.4% which is where it was in January 2013.

Finally the state data shows falls in NSW, VIC, and QLD, but rises in WA, TAS, and ACT.

 

According to the ABS, November 2015 data  shows that an increase in employment has contributed to the trend employment to population ratio rising over the year from 60.6 per cent to 61.3 per cent, while the unemployment rate has remained relatively stable over the year, decreasing from 6.2 per cent to 6.0 per cent.

The ABS reported that strong growth in employment has continued with 293,000 more people were employed in November 2015 than in November 2014; an increase of 2.5 per cent.

Over the past month, trend employment increased by 25,300 persons to 11,855,800 persons, which translates into a monthly growth rate of 0.21 per cent. This growth rate was above the monthly average over the past 20 years (0.15 per cent), and continues the trend in relatively strong employment growth that has been seen since December 2014.

The trend series smooth the more volatile seasonally adjusted estimates and provide the best measure of the underlying behaviour of the labour market.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for November 2015 was 5.8 per cent (down 0.1 percentage points) and the labour force participation rate was 65.3 per cent (up 0.3 percentage points).

The seasonally adjusted number of persons employed increased by 71,400 in November 2015, while the number of persons unemployed decreased by 2,800.

The ABS seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked in all jobs series decreased slightly in November 2015, down 12.7 million hours (0.8 per cent) to 1,645.9 million hours, the ABS reported.

According to the ABS, trend employment has increased by 260,500 since October 2014, contributing to an increased employment to population ratio over the year from 60.6 per cent to 61.1 per cent. The trend unemployment rate has remained relatively stable over the year, decreasing from 6.2 per cent to 6.1 per cent.

The trend series smooth the more volatile seasonally adjusted estimates. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for October 2015 was 5.9 per cent (down 0.3 percentage points) and the labour force participation rate was 65.0 per cent (up 0.1 percentage points).

The ABS reported the number of people employed increased by 58,600 to 11,838,200 in October 2015 (seasonally adjusted). The increase in employment was driven by increases in male full-time employment (up 33,500) and female part-time employment (up 24,000).

The ABS seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked in all jobs series increased in October 2015, up 19.1 million hours (1.2 per cent) to 1,660.4 million hours.

The seasonally adjusted number of people unemployed decreased by 33,400 to 739,500 in October 2015, the ABS reported.

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures show that Australia’s estimated seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2015 remained at 6.2 per cent, despite a fall of 0.1 percentage points (based on unrounded estimates) from August 2015. In trend terms, employment increased to 11,775,800 in September 2015 and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.2 per cent for the third consecutive month.

Males continue to register a higher unemployment rate then females.

  The seasonally adjusted labour force participation rate decreased 0.2 percentage points (based on unrounded estimates) to 64.9 per cent in September 2015.

The ABS reported the number of people employed decreased by 5,100 to 11,769,900 in September 2015 (seasonally adjusted). There were decreases in male full-time and part-time employment and female full-time employment, with the largest decrease in male full-time employment (down 11,000).

Nearly 7 million  people are not in the labour force.

The ABS seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked in all jobs series increased in September 2015, up 12.2 million hours (0.7 per cent) to 1,638.0 million hours.

The seasonally adjusted number of people unemployed decreased by 8,100 to 772,500 in September 2015.

Trend employment increased by 232,400 since September 2014 while the civilian population aged 15 years and over increased by 286,400 over the same period.

Australia’s estimated seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August 2015 was 6.2 per cent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points. In trend terms, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.2 per cent in August 2015, as announced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.

The seasonally adjusted labour force participation rate decreased 0.1 percentage points to 65.0 per cent in the August 2015 estimate.

The ABS reported the number of people employed increased by 17,400 to 11,775,800 in August 2015 (seasonally adjusted). The increase in employment was driven by increases in male full-time employment, and female full-time and part-time employment, with the largest increase seen in full-time employment for males (up 10,100).

The ABS seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked in all jobs series decreased in August 2015, down 0.6 million hours to 1,623.8 million hours.

The seasonally adjusted number of people unemployed decreased by 14,400 to 781,100 in August 2015, the ABS reported.

The seasonally adjusted underemployment rate remained steady at 8.4 per cent in August 2015, from a revised May 2015 estimate. Combined with the unemployment rate, the latest seasonally adjusted estimate of total labour force underutilisation was unchanged at 14.3 per cent in August 2015, from a revised May 2015 estimate.

The latest ABS data shows that Australia’s estimated seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for July 2015 was 6.3 per cent, an increase of 0.3 percentage points (based on unrounded estimates) from a revised 6.1 per cent for June 2015. The trend (which smooths out the monthly variations to provide a more reliable view), was unchanged at 6.1 per cent. We continue to see monthly gyrations in the underlying data which makes it hard to draw any definitive conclusions. However, the headline jump will, I am sure, garner significant comment.

However, the seasonally adjusted labour force participation rate increased 0.3 percentage points to 65.1 per cent in July 2015. The number of jobs rose, mostly part-time positions, but also more people are seeking work. The ABS reported the number of people employed increased by 38,500 to 11,810,700 in July 2015 (seasonally adjusted). The increase in employment was driven by increases in both full-time and part-time employment, with the largest increase seen in part-time employment for males (up 20,400).

The ABS seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked in all jobs series decreased in July 2015, down 3.4 million hours (0.2 per cent) to 1,633.2 million hours.

The seasonally adjusted number of people unemployed increased by 40,100 to 800,700 in July 2015. This was driven by females who looked for both full-time work (up 18,200) and part-time work (up 14,600).