Latest Fintech Disruption Index Higher

The latest edition of the Financial Services Disruption index is released today. It measured 39.26, up 8.51% from last quarter.

q216-disruption-indexThe Disruption Index tracks change in the small business lending sector, and more generally, across financial services. The Financial Services Disruption Index, which has been jointly developed by Moula, the lender to the small business sector; and research and consulting firm Digital Finance Analytics (DFA).

Combing data from both organisations, we are able to track the waves of disruption, initially in the small business lending sector, and more widely across financial services later.

Highlights this time include:

  • Surveyed small businesses are becoming increasingly aware of funding alternatives away from the traditional banks, with a rise of 14% quarter on quarter.
  • We have now reached the point where SMEs using smart phones, tablets and laptops within their businesses are in the majority for the first time, with nearly 52% of businesses indicating these important tools in a small business.  This trend is only likely to accelerate.
  • Coupled with the increasing adoption of smart devices in SMEs, we are also seeing increasing use of cloud accounting data, not only in running a SME but also to obtain a loan (through data permissioning). In the latest results, over half of all businesses permissioned Moula into cloud accounting data.

In light of the vacuum of information in respect of the size of SME borrowing, DFA have used their survey to provide an estimate of this market segment.

DFA looked at SME’s borrowing less than $500,000. The total stock of debt is in the order of $107 billion of loans (including unsecured overdrafts, structured loans, personal loans for business purposes) and $36 billion of credit cards debt, or $143 billion in total.

Of surveyed respondents, approximately 13% of businesses are just aware of fintech offerings, whilst 2% considered applying for funding but did not follow though. In addition, a further 5% have visited a fintech lender web site and 10% may apply within the next 12 months.

So, the opportunity for fintech lending is significant…

Read more on the Disruption Index Site.

Home Loan Insights From Deep Segmentation

As we continue our journey into the depths of home loan segmentation analysis, using LTV, DSR and LTI ratios, we begin to see some insightful patterns emerging. Today we delve into our deep segmentation models.

We start by looking across the states and have sorted the results by DSR (Debt Servicing Ratio), as this is the most insightful lens, in our view. Households in NSW have the highest DSR, no surprise perhaps because home prices have risen strongly – so mortgages have grown – at a time when incomes have not. Remember DSR is based on current low interest rates, should they rise, the DSR will also raise. NSW also holds the prize for the highest average Loan to Income ratio, again because of the rise in market values, and mortgages. However, the average Loan to Value ratio is sitting at around 68%, compared with 72% in WA. DSR and LTI are the better indicators of potential risk, compared with LVR which only really comes into play as a factor if trying to sell into a downturn.

state-dsr-dtiNext we look at age bands. Younger households have on average higher DSR’s, and LVR’s. But it is worth highlighting that the highest LTI’s are residing in older households, because here whilst LVR’s are lower, limited incomes mean they are more exposed. We are seeing a significant rise in the number of households who still have a mortgage to pay off as they enter retirement.

age-dsr-dtiIf we look at the picture by $50k income bands we see that the highest LVR’s, LTI’s and DSR’s rest with households whose income is in the range $50-100k. Interestingly, LVR’s do not vary that much by income band, but both LTI’s and DSR’s improve with income. This is because more wealthy households are able to buy more expensive property, and service larger loans. Remember these cuts tell us nothing about the relative number of households or loans in each income band.

income-dsr-dti That analysis shows more than 46% of households with a mortgage have an income of $50-100k, and 26% have an income of $100-150k, whereas only 0.29% have an income of over $500k.

income-distTurning on our zonal segmentation, we see that households living in the inner suburbs have the highest DSR. This is because home prices are higher here, compared with outlying areas. Households in the regional and rural areas tend to have, on average, lower DSR, LTI and LVRs.

zones-dsr-dti  More than 12% of households live in the inner suburbs, compared with 26% in the outer suburbs and 22% in the urban fringe.

zone-countstSo to our master household segmentation. We use this to separate households based on a range of demographic indicators – which have proved reliable over many years. Young Growing families have the highest DSR (18.3) and the highest LVR (92.5%). Many have bought quite recently and are leveraged to the max. It is worth looking at the various measures across these segments as there are some fundamentally different things in play with different risk outcomes and sensitivities.

segment-dsr-dtiFinally, for today we look at the data through the lens of our technographic segmentation. We classify households into digital natives, migrants and luddites. The descriptions are self-explanatory, in that natives have always been digitally aligned, whereas migrants have adopted digital channels and luddites are resisting. Interestingly, natives have a higher DSR, LVR and LTI, compared with the other segments. This is because on average they are younger, and more likely to be in the main urban areas.

Such segmentation is important because Fintech’s need to understand where their potential markets are. We featured uno yesterday, a relatively new digital alternative to brokers. Digital natives would be directly in their sights.

techno-dsr-dtiNext time we will look at DSR, LVR and LTI by individual lenders – there are some interesting variations.

Westpac makes $16.5m investment in Fintech uno

Fintch “uno” has received a $16.5m strategic investment from Westpac.   uno is a digital mortgage service offering households tools to search, compare and settle a better home loan for themselves online, including realtime chat

uno allows consumers to access real-time home loan rates based on their personal situation – not just advertised rates. These next generation tools– that in the past only a traditional mortgage broker would have access to – allow them to calculate their borrowing power across lenders, save and share their data with someone else getting the home loan, and select the option that best suits their needs. The entire system is built on the premise that if people had the right knowledge and access to information, they could do better for themselves.

The entire uno loan application process can be done from a desktop, tablet and smartphone, and is supported by a team of experts who can help with real-time advice, when a consumer wants it.

So it is an alternative to a mortgage broker and so far they say more than $400m loans have been search for via the platform. uno’s home loan experts that provide advice do not personally receive sales commissions. The company says they take out all of the filters and pre-decisions that traditional brokers apply before making a recommendation to a home buyer and instead offers full transparency, putting decision making power in the hands of the consumer.

productshot-mobileThe company says: uno is redefining the way property finance is secured by using a ‘technology plus people’ approach to provide the consumer the power to get a home loan that gives them a better deal – from both major and smaller lenders via any digital device with real-time advice and support. Driven by next generation tools and calculators with the capability to provide real-time home loan rates and borrowing power based on a consumer’s personal situation, uno has reimagined how Australians can buy or refinance a home.

The successful launch of unohomeloans.com.au in May this year has attracted a number of high profile investors, such as Westpac, that have discovered the service’s potential to redefine how Australians buy or refinance their home.

The popularity of the unohomeloans.com.au service has grown rapidly as customers have discovered the benefits of having greater power in the home loan search process, and direct access to the technology and information that traditional mortgage brokers use. uno’s offering also includes full-service support and advice for customers via chat, phone and video, helping customers search, compare and settle in the one place.

Founder and CEO of uno, Vincent Turner, said in the three months since launch, millions of dollars’ worth of loans had been settled as customers reviewed their loan position with uno’s service team to find a better deal in today’s low interest rate environment.

Mr Turner said: “We’ve grown to 34 employees to meet the service demands of thousands of registered customers who have used the platform to compare more than $400 million worth of mortgages. With the support of our investors we’ve worked hard to test and enhance the customer experience, as well as finesse the functionality of our original platform to include options such as new calculators and video chat.”

Chief Strategy Officer at Westpac, Gary Thursby, said: “uno’s success has been impressive and we’re seeing its potential to become a serious player in the home loan market. Westpac has been involved since the concept phase, and today we’re pleased to announce we will increase our involvement in uno as a strategic investor. Westpac is proud of its reputation as a supporter of early stage fintech companies like uno that drive digital innovation and benefit Australians.”

Mr Turner added: “We knew from the start that by creating a platform with direct visibility to lenders’ products and pricing, we could give Australians greater control over the home loan process and the confidence to achieve the best home loan deal. We also challenged the status quo by giving customers the ability to search, compare and settle a home loan in the one place, which has proven extremely useful for busy professionals. “With the healthy investment we need to drive the company forward, we are excited to keep expanding and help more people get a better home loan.”

Fintechs and Incumbents – Synergy or Conflict?

In the second episode of a three-part series on the future of fintech, Baker & McKenzie looks at the established financial institutions facing the choice of competing or collaborating – using their own resources to explore cutting edge products and smarter use of data, or nurturing promising tech start-ups.

Fintech’s Attack All Banking Client Segments

Whilst most Fintechs are attacking the retail banking value chain, where the share of global revenue is highest, all segments are under attack according to a report published by McKinsey “The value in digitally transforming” credit risk management“. This chart which shows the footprint of Fintechs relative estimated share of bank revenue and client segments.

MCK-Fintech-Map

Whilst it may not be fully representative for any one segment or product, the chart is based on McKinsey’s financial-technology database which includes >350 of the best-known start-ups. “Commercial” includes small and medium-size enterprises, “large corporates” includes large corporations, public entities, and nonbanking financial institutions. The “financial assests and capital markets” includes investment banking, sales and trading, securities services, retail investment, noncurrent-account deposits, and asset-management factory.

The new competitors are beginning to threaten incumbents’ revenues and their cost models. Without the traditional burden
of banking operations, branch networks, and legacy IT systems, fintech companies can operate at much lower cost-to-income ratios—below 40 percent.

Will The Banking Revolution Will Kill Off Credit Cards and Internet Banking?

In the first episode of a three-part series on the future of fintech, Baker & McKenzie explores the vast number of fintech ventures that are innovating at a fast pace, often unencumbered by stringent banking regulations.

Appearing in Episode 1 of Baker & McKenzie’s The future of fintech video series, Rubik chief executive Iain Dunstan said that 60 cents in every dollar is now transacted on a phone or tablet.

“It wasn’t that long ago that phone banking was new. And that died when internet banking came along,” Mr Dunstan said.

Smartphones are likely to have the same effect on internet banking, he said – because that is the way that Generations X and Y want to transact, he said.

“Internet banking now is generally only done between 7pm and 10pm at night. Hardly at all during the day,” Mr Dunstan said.

Just as cheques have disappeared, so too will credit cards – and their demise will be much faster, he predicted.

Baker & McKenzie partner Astrid Raetze said many of the smaller fintech players will get “knocked out” over the next five years, leaving only the companies that provide a quality mobile customer experience.

“The ones who are going to be successful are going to be the ones who are marrying the perfect customer-tailored online experience with the excellent technology that achieves the customer’s purpose,” Ms Raetze said.

“It wouldn’t surprise me if in five years’ time you don’t have a wallet at all and instead everything’s on your mobile phone,” she said.

In the future, the big players in the fintech space could well be some of the major technology companies, said Ms Raetze.

“There are a lot of players who are afraid that if the technology companies get serious in this space, lots of customers are going to move to them because they already trust their relationship with Apple, with Amazon – it’s a good experience that they keep coming back for,” she said.

From FintechBusiness.

How Big Is The SME Fintech Unsecured Lending Market?

Given the rise in the number of Fintechs targetting the SME unsecured lending sector, it is timely to consider the potential addressable size of the market in Australia. To do that we have taken data from the Digital Finance Analytics SME survey of 26,000 businesses, and used this data to estimate the current size of the market. The latest data is from August 2016.

Piggy-BusinessFirst, we need to focus in on smaller SME’s, so we set a turnover ceiling of $500k. In fact though there are more than 1 million businesses in this category, many SME’s have much smaller turnovers than that. Then we remove from the analysis secured loans (either against property or other assets), leases, factoring and credit card debt. This gives us a read of the level of unsecured debt. We also excluded businesses who prefer not to borrow at all.

So, we estimate that currently, the stock of unsecured loans to these small businesses is around $8.2 billion.  Of this, $5.3 billion would show up as a business loan, either as an overdraft, structured loan or term loan in the RBA data. The rest is classified as personal debt, meaning it is a personal loan or overdraft, but it will still be used for business purposes. So, $2.9 billion relates to loans which would be classified as personal finance in the RBA data. This also highlights the significant “twilight zone” between business and personal finances.

Next, we need to estimate the annual flow of these loans, and also overlay those businesses with the potential to access a Fintech loan. At very least they need to be comfortable with using online services, and tools. So we excluded the “digital luddites” and those not tech savvy.

We estimate that $3.6 billion of unsecured lending was written by lenders, of all sorts, to our target businesses, in the past 12 months. Of this $2.1 billion was a business loan, and $1.5 billion was a personal loan. This includes refinancing of existing loans, and new loans.

Most Fintech SME lenders will only lend to a business, with an ABN. So, we should discount the $1.5 billion of personal loans. That leaves a current annual addressable market of around $2.1 billion. We also expect this to grow strongly in coming years.

We are already seeing a strong trend in the growing awareness of Fintech among businesses. The joint DFA and Moula Disruption Index is tracking this momentum.

Dis-July-2016Increased digital penetration, and greater awareness of Fintech alternatives will increase the addressable market quite considerably. In addition, new lenders may offer loans to businesses which today cannot obtain credit.

So, in conclusion, despite the relatively early history of the sector, there is an addressable market which is significant, and interesting and north of $2 billion annually. Whilst the market is small compared with the $40 billion consumer credit card industry or the $140 billion total consumer credit market, it is set to grow.

Finally, it is also worth considering our post from yesterday, which looked at some Fintechs charging very high rates of interest. Will increased competition drive rates lower and create a still larger market?

Fintech lessons from the big four banks

From Fintech Business. Each of Australia’s four major banks has adopted a different approach to manage the challenges caused by fintech disruption, writes Finder.com.au’s Elizabeth Barry.

Fintech-Pic

Since the beginning of the Australian fintech boom, headlines have proclaimed how Australia’s largest financial institutions should be running scared from startups.

Now the big four have had a chance to retaliate, what can their reaction tell us about how these stoic organisations deal with disruption?

Each of the big four has dealt with their fintech rivals in a very different way, and for some of them, the cracks are starting to show.

Speaking at an event in Sydney in June 2016, NAB chief executive Andrew Thorburn said the bank emulated the traits of its startup rivals.

“I actually think we are a fintech company ourselves. We have to have the mindset of a fintech company, and I actually think we’ve got a lot of the assets of a fintech company,” he said.

In that same month, NAB launched a product – the QuickBiz Loan – from its innovation hub “NAB Lab” on its own — that is, without partnering with a fintech startup.

At the time of the launch, Mr Thorburn said “There does remain a question mark around the credit capabilities around some of the fintechs.”

“We’ve watched developments in the space and been very determined…to make sure we have our own NAB-branded solution that we’ve built from scratch.”

A similar venture, this time jointly founded by NAB and Telstra, was small business marketplace ProQuo.

Despite the size of both corporations, ProQuo considers itself a startup and even housed itself next to startup accelerator Blue Chilli.

While NAB has gone its own way on several ventures, including those outlined above, it has pledged $50 million to invest in startups and develop partnerships with innovative companies through its NAB Ventures fund.

Commonwealth Bank has taken a very different approach than NAB. The bank partnered with payments startup Kounta earlier in the year, following that with a partnership with small business lender OnDeck.

The partnership with OnDeck saw it pick up the Fintech-Bank Collaboration of the Year at the Australian Fintech Awards in 2016.

While partnerships between financial institutions and startups have become common, it’s Commonwealth Bank’s attitude towards the fintech sector that also sets it apart.

Speaking at an Australian Information Industry Association lunch in Sydney, Commonwealth Bank’s chief information officer David Whiteing spoke of the need to embrace newer technologies and be ahead of the market.

“We should mirror the society in which we operate, so if we become really good at being inclusive we will be able to harvest the ideas and respond quickly,” he said.

“One of the things that my leadership team talks about quite a bit is that today we are a technology team in a bank that has a technology halo, tomorrow if we get this right, we will be a technology company that does banking services.”

The big four lender has already established an innovation lab in Hong Kong and begun experimenting with blockchain technology.

At 180 years old, ANZ is far beyond its startup years. Earlier this year, ANZ boss Shayne Elliot told a Melbourne fintech meetup he was ready to forge partnerships and invest in startups.

However, speaking with the Sydney Morning Herald, Elliot also outlined the bank’s challenges:

“Investing in startups is not hard for banks, we have lots of money to write cheques, the difficult thing is figuring out how we can internalise that intellectual capital,” he said.

Two key partnerships announced by the bank include York Butter Factory, a Melbourne incubator and co-working space; and Honcho, where customers are referred from its small-business banking websites to receive discounted business registration, marketing and data storage.

ANZ’s recent venture with Apple to offer phone users Apple Pay is also a mark of things to come for the bank, signalling its willingness to adopt technologies built elsewhere.

“The days of a bank needing to own every piece of technology are gone,” ANZ managing director for pensions and investment Peter Mullins noted recently.

“We believe we can achieve better outcomes for our customers by partnering with a specialist provider committed to the technology investment and product innovation needed to provide a world-class offering.”

Westpac is arguably the big four bank that is furthest along the fintech curve. Reinventure Fund, of which Westpac is the largest funder, has invested in a huge number of fintech startups.

Through Reinventure $50 million will be invested in Australian technology startups such as Society One, Valiant Finance and Coinbase. Outside of the fund, Westpac has also partnered with SME lender Prospa.

Speaking at the 2016 Banking and Wealth Summit, Westpac CIO David Curan spoke about the new technology ecosystem he sees developing between banks and fintechs.

“My guess is we will continue to see more collaboration in financial services, and that will start with more partnerships between banks and startups – because that’s what we’re used to – just a few people and easy to define contracts,” he said.

“Over time we’ll move to more of an ecosystem model, where more and more people will be working together, with new inter-relationships that aren’t that clear. That starts with more partnerships and moving into new ecosystems, the technology is taking us there whether we like it or not.”

So, what can the big four teach us about fintech?

The banks that are not going to lose at fintech are going to find the best tools at their disposal and admit when they don’t have them; thus the partnerships.

The banks that are becoming the best innovators are working with fintech, not against it. They are admitting that while they are market-leading, a startup may be worth listening to.

While there is no clear answer whether partnerships are the best strategy for every company, any answer that best drives innovation for a fintech company (bank or otherwise) should be what’s adopted.

Fintechs for SMEs are here to stay

From FinTech Business. Despite the success of fintech companies the world over, many still underestimate their importance, but when it comes to peer-to-peer lending, the market potential can’t be ignored, writes FundX’s David Jackson.

Money-Puzzle-Pic

History is brimming with examples of our limited ability to think beyond the current status quo.

In 1977, Ken Olsen, co-founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, famously stated, “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.”

In 2007, then-Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer predicted, “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.”

And even Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates displayed surprising short-sightedness when he announced, “We will never make a 32-bit operating system”, taking into consideration the 32-bit Windows NT 3.1 was launched just four years later and a 64-bit system is now on offer.

It can be easy to look back with the wisdom of hindsight and wonder how these statements were ever made. However, despite evidence of fintech’s increasing pervasiveness, we still seem to be making our own version of these statements now.

Below are several reasons why fintech for SMEs may be here to stay.

1. Pent-up demand in the SME debt market is a massive opportunity for fintechs

According to Reserve Bank data, there are around 100,000 SME loan applications made in Australia each month.

Of these, approximately 25,000 loans worth around $20 billion are approved and written by the banks. Another 50,000 loans worth around $40 billion aren’t approved or written, and rightly so, because the applicants aren’t requesting realistic amounts of credit given their capacity to repay.

This leaves another 25,000 loans worth $20 billion dollars that aren’t being written, not because the applicant isn’t creditworthy, but because banks often take an overly conservative approach when it comes to business lending.

Or, to put it another way, a $240 billion yearly opportunity for Australian fintechs.

2. It isn’t profitable for banks to lend to SMEs

Findings of the recent Financial Systems Inquiry suggest that traditional lenders struggle to finance SMEs for a number of reasons.

An inability to price risk in this segment leads many lenders to waste time and resources completing manual credit assessment processes that include physical handling of paperwork.

This can be particularly challenging where an SME is in its early stages and there isn’t a long history of credit activity or financial performance of the SME or owner.

Banks and other traditional lenders can deal with this by placing a costly “uncertainty premium” on business lending. However, this is an expense SMEs are not well-placed to absorb into their expenses.

Sometimes lenders go one step further and err on the side of caution by not lending to a business at all, as demonstrated by the $20 billion worth of loans not being funded each month.

Onerous capital requirements can also drive traditional lenders to make higher provisions for loan losses to reflect the higher expected losses on SME loans.

3. It isn’t convenient for SMEs to borrow from banks

To account for the higher cost and risks born by banks lending to SMEs, traditional lenders are also more likely to require security in the form of property or another asset.

This is undesirable for an SME owner who may wish to create as large a divide between their business finances and their personal finances as possible.

The manual application process of traditional lenders can often also be overly onerous for SME owners, whose time is already likely to be stretched quite thin.

Finally, SME owners looking to shore up cash flow rapidly may struggle to find a fast solution from any traditional lenders.

The time taken from application through to funds in the bank can sometimes stretch out to weeks or months, during which time staff and suppliers will require payment for the business to continue operating.

4. The low-interest environment is driving the search for yield.

Low interest rates across the globe have spurred innovators to search for yield opportunities in niche opportunity sectors such as the SME debt market.

This is affecting two groups of players in the market. On one hand, the search for yield is driving institutional, sophisticated and everyday investors to seek out new ways to make a higher return on investment.

On the other hand, fintech innovators are meeting this demand for new asset classes by creating new avenues for investors to achieve this yield.

As an example, marketplace and peer-to-peer platforms for SMEs are providing lucrative new investment opportunities.

Because these platforms cut out the middleman, investors are thought to receive higher rates and borrowers supposedly pay less, which may explain why Morgan Stanley has gone so far as to predict that P2P fintechs have the potential to take A$27 billion from the banking industry’s revenue moving forward.

And while the low-interest rate environment may not last forever, the rapid evolution that will occur while it does last is unlikely to be unwound if rates begin to rise.

5. The big banks are joining in.

In-house incubator hubs, accelerator programs, chief innovation officers, fintech acquisitions … as much as the big four and other major financial players try to deny the threat of fintech, their actions speak louder than their words.

As major banks the world over are (grudgingly) joining the fintech revolution, the question might be asked – are you coming along for the ride too?

David Jackson is the founder and chief executive of FundX