Housing Finance Leaps Higher

Data from the ABS today shows a further lift in home lending in December, driven hardest by the investment sector, but with owner occupation lending also in play. The trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 1.0%. Investment housing commitments rose 1.2% and owner occupied housing commitments rose 0.9%. Investment lending comprised more than 50.6% of new loans, excluding refinance, another record. Refinancing remains strong in the current low rate environment. In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 4.7%. However, DFA is now using the trend series in our modelling, as we think the SA series are suspect (according to the ABS, trend series reduces the impact of the irregular component of the seasonally adjusted series and is derived by applying a 13-term Henderson-weighted moving average to all but the last six months of the respective seasonally adjusted series, whilst the last six months are estimated by applying surrogates of the Henderson moving average to the seasonally adjusted series.)

HousingFinanceTrendDec2014In trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance rose 0.5% in December 2014. In trend terms, the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings rose 0.6%, while the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings fell 1.1% and the number of commitments for the construction of dwellings was flat.

Turning to First Time Buyers, on the revised new method of calculation and in original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments fell to 14.5% in December 2014 from 14.6% in November 2014. The fall in First Time Buyer activity remains a feature in the current climate.

FirstTimeBuyersDec2014-DecThe state by state data reflects the revised First Time Buyer data, with NSW up by one third from 8% to 11% following the ABS revisions, compared with a national uplift of one quarter. We still see WA leading the way, though falling from the June 2014 peak. The other states are now more closely aligned. Given the size of the adjustment, we hypothise that at least one of the majors was not correctly recording first time buyer data.

FirstTimeBuyers-StatesDec2014

Investors Still Leading The Way

The ABS published their housing finance data today for November 2014. Comparing October to November, the trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.6%. Investment housing commitments rose 0.9% and owner occupied housing commitments rose 0.5%.

However, in seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions fell 1.0%.

In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments rose to 11.6% in November 2014 from 11.4% in October 2014.

In trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance was flat in November 2014. In trend terms, the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings was flat and the number of commitments for the construction of dwellings rose 0.2%, while the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings fell 0.5%.

RBA And Housing – Again

Glenn Stevens in an address to the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) Annual Dinner today included some further important comments on the housing sector. He was at pains to highlight what potential upcoming changes on lending standards would not be focussing on. Rather, it is an attempt “to stretch out the upswing.” In other words, the RBA still wants to use housing as part of the ongoing economic growth lever, despite high debt levels and high house prices.

As for domestic sources of demand, an obvious contributor is the set of forces at work in the housing sector. Investment in new and existing dwellings is rising. It ought to be possible, if we are being sensible both on the demand management side and the supply side, for this to go further yet and, more importantly, for the level of activity to stay high for longer than the average cyclical experience. A high level of construction, maintained for a longer period of time, is vastly preferable to a very sharp boom and bust cycle. That alternative outcome might give us a higher peak in the near term, but then a slump in the housing sector at a time when the fall in mining investment is still occurring. A sustained period of strong construction will be more helpful from the point of view of encouraging growth in non-mining activity – and also, surely, from a wider perspective: housing our growing population in an affordable manner.

Considerations such as these are among the reasons we ought to take an interest in developments in dwelling prices, the flow of credit towards housing purchases, and the prudence with which these funds are advanced. It is perhaps opportune to offer a few observations on this topic.

Having fallen in late 2010 and 2011, dwelling prices have since risen, with the median price across the country up by around $100 000 – about 18 per cent – since the low point. Prices have risen in all capitals, with a fair degree of variation: the smallest increase has been in Canberra, at about 6 per cent, and the largest in Sydney, at 28 per cent.

Credit outstanding to households in total is rising at about 6–7 per cent per year. I see no particular concern with that. When we turn to the rate of growth of credit to investors in particular, we see that it has picked up to about 10 per cent per annum over the past six months, with investors accounting for almost half of the flow of new credit.

It is not clear whether this acceleration will continue or abate. It is not clear whether price increases will continue or abate. Furthermore, it is not to be assumed that investor activity is problematic, per se. A proportion of the investor transactions are financing additions to the stock of dwellings, which is helpful. It can also be observed that a bit more of the ‘animal spirits’ evident in the housing market would be welcome in some other sectors of the economy.

Nor, let me be clear, have we seen these dynamics, thus far, as an immediate threat to financial stability. The Bank’s most recent Financial Stability Review made that clear.

So we don’t just assume that all this is a terrible problem. By the same token, after all we have seen around the world over the past decade, it is surely imprudent not to question the comfortable assumption that it is all entirely benign. A situation where:

  • prices have already risen considerably in the two largest cities (where about a third of our population live)
  • prices are rising, at present, faster than income by a noticeable margin, and
  • an important area of credit growth has picked up to double-digit rates

should prompt a reasonable observer to ask the question whether some people might be starting to get just a little overexcited. Such an observer might want to satisfy themselves that lending standards are being maintained. And they might contemplate whether some suitably calibrated and focused action to help ensure sound standards, and that might lean into the price dynamic, may be appropriate. That is the background to the much publicised comment that the Bank was working with other agencies to see what more could be done on lending standards.

Let’s be clear what this is not about. It is not an attempt to restrain construction activity. On the contrary, it is an attempt to stretch out the upswing. Nor is it a return to widespread attempts to restrict lending via direct controls. That era, that some of us remember all too well, was one in which the price of credit was simply too low and credit growth too high all round. We don’t have that problem at present. That growth of credit to many borrowers remains moderate suggests that the overall price of credit is not too low. In fact the level of interest rates, although very low, is well warranted on macroeconomic grounds. The economy has spare capacity. Inflation is well under control and is likely to remain so over the next couple of years. In such circumstances, monetary policy should be accommodative and, on present indications, is likely to be that way for some time yet. But for accommodative monetary policy to support the economy most effectively overall, it’s helpful if pockets of potential over-exuberance don’t get too carried away.

Turning from housing investment to investment more generally, a more robust picture for capital spending outside mining would be part of a further strengthening of growth over time. Some of the key ingredients for this are in place. To date, there are some promising signs of stronger intentions, but not so much in the way of convincing evidence of actual commitment yet. That’s often the way it is at this point of the cycle. Firms wait for more evidence of stronger demand, but part of the stronger demand will come from them.

With respect to consumer demand, I should complete the picture by showing an updated version of the relevant chart from last time. In brief, not much has changed. The ratio of debt to income remains close to where it has been for some time. It’s rising a little at present because income growth is a bit below trend. Household consumption growth has picked up to a moderate pace and has actually run ahead of income over the past two years. Given that household wealth has risen strongly over that period, and interest rates are low, a modest decline in the saving rate is perhaps not surprising and indeed we think it could decline a little further in the period ahead. As I’ve argued in the past, however, we shouldn’t expect consumption to grow consistently and significantly faster than incomes like it did in the 1990s and early 2000s, given that the debt load is already substantial.

sp-gov-181114-graph6

Property Finance Continues To Lift In September

The ABS released their lending finance data today for September 2014. When compared with August,

Housing Finance For Owner Occupation

  • The total value of owner occupied housing commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.1% in trend terms and the seasonally adjusted series rose 1.4%.

Personal Finance

  • The trend series for the value of total personal finance commitments rose 0.4%. Fixed lending commitments rose 0.9%, while revolving credit commitments fell 0.3%.
  • The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total personal finance commitments fell 5.5%. Revolving credit commitments fell 7.7% and fixed lending commitments fell 3.7%.

Commercial Finance

  • The trend series for the value of total commercial finance commitments fell 1.6%. Revolving credit commitments fell 4.3% and fixed lending commitments fell 0.5%.
  • The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total commercial finance commitments rose 2.4%. Fixed lending commitments rose 4.9%, while revolving credit commitments fell 4.1%.

Lease Finance

  • The trend series for the value of total lease finance commitments rose 1.2% in September 2014 and the seasonally adjusted series fell 1.0%, after a rise of 9.3% in August 2014.

Total-Lending-Sept-2014Housing finance made a significant contribution, mainly thanks to significant investment sector demand. Overall it rose 2.3% from last month. Refer our earlier discussion on investment lending for more details.

Total-PropertyLending-Sept-2014Were it not for the hot house prices, and unconstrained investment sector demand, the next movement in official interest rates would most likely be down thanks for contained business lending. The real question is how to redirect lending support away from unproductive investment in established dwellings, to new construction, and the commercial sector. Changes to negative gearing and capital buffers across lending categories should be on the table. However, economic sense is being blunted by the fear of political backlash. Nevertheless, we think think the time has come for a dose of reality as the blunt interest rate lever will just not cut the mustard.

Over 50% Investment Loans In September

The latest ABS housing finance data to September 2014 has just been released. We broke more records, as more than half the loans written, excluding refinance, were for investment purposes.

LoanAnalysisSept2014

First time buyers continue to languish, especially in the hot Sydney market. Further evidence of the market being out of kilter, per the RBA’s recent comments. In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 2.3%.

HousingSept14-TypeSummaryIn original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments rose to 12.0% in September 2014 from 11.8% in August 2014. Still near the lowest on record.

HousingSept14-FTBTrendNSW first time buyers continues at the lowest levels, though with a slight uplift this month. WA data flatters the Australia-wide averages for first time buyer finance. It is not just a Sydney thing.

HousingSept14-FTBStateTrendIn trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance fell 0.2% in September 2014. In trend terms, the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings fell 0.3%, while the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings rose 1.2% and the number of commitments for the construction of dwellings rose 0.2%.

HousingSept14-TypeTrendTrend

 

 

Moodys Warns About The Rise In Interest Only Loans

Moodys today published commentary on the risks attached to the rising number of interest only loans.

An increase in the number of Australian “owner-occupier” home buyers who are taking out interest-only (IO) mortgages is credit negative for future Australian Residential Mortgage Backed Securities (RMBS) because such loans have a higher risk of delinquency and default, particularly if interest rates rise from their current record low levels.

Over the past year, a notable rise has occurred in the amount of IO loans in Australia and owner-occupiers – people who buy a home to live in, as opposed to investors who buy to rent out — are accounting for a growing share of these loans.

IO loans are common among real estate investors in Australia because interest costs on investment loans can be claimed as a tax deduction. However, owner-occupiers cannot claim such deductions. There are concerns that many of the owner-occupiers taking out these loans — which are generally larger than the traditional Principal and Interest (PI) loans — would consequently find it difficult to service them if interest rates start to rise.

Greater Delinquency Risk as Owner-Occupier Interest Only Loans Grow

IO loans accounted for 43.2% of all new mortgages in June 2014, up from 38.6% in June 2013, according to the latest Australian Prudential Regulation Authority figures. Over the same period, the proportion of loans for investment properties also rose — to 37.9%, from 35.2% — but not by as much as the rise in IO loans.

The growing gap between the percentage of IO loans and investment loans shows that more owner-occupier borrowers are taking out IO loans.

IO loans, whether they are for owner-occupiers or real estate investors, generally carry a greater risk of delinquencies and default than traditional PI loans.

In particular, IO loans are more sensitive to interest rate rises than PI loans because of their larger amounts and slower amortization rates. IO loans are most sensitive to higher interest rates when they revert to PI loans — which typically occurs after 5-10 years — and monthly repayment amounts rise significantly.

If the proportion of owner-occupier IO loans continues to rise, we would expect that they would also make up a greater proportion of the loans in future RMBS transactions, which would be credit negative, given their higher propensity for delinquency and default.

Owner-occupier IO loans account for 16.5% of the current RMBS portfolio, but these do not present the same risk as new owner-occupier IO loans because they were underwritten when interest rates were higher and would be more resilient when rates rise again.

In the current record low interest rate environment in Australia, delinquency rates for IO loans have in fact been lower than for PI loans. This situation reflects the fact that monthly repayments for IO loans are lower than PI loans. However, our expectation is that interest rates in Australia will rise in 2015, putting more pressure on IO borrowers and resulting in greater levels of delinquencies and defaults.

Real estate investors in Australia can claim a tax deduction for the interest costs of their loans, which will help offset the impact of higher rates. However, owner-occupiers are not eligible for such deductions. For this reason, all else being equal, an increase in interest rates will be more severe for owner-occupier IO borrowers than investment borrowers.

Owner-Occupiers Turn to IO Loans as Property Prices Increase

At a time when property prices and therefore the size of mortgages in Australia is rising rapidly, the increase in the number of owner occupiers taking out IO loans may reflect their decision to take out larger loans amounts, given the rise in property prices.

In Australia, national house prices have increased by 9.3% over the year ended September 2014, while in Sydney, the city with the highest growth, prices have risen by 14.3%.

Against this backdrop, home buyers may view IO loans as an option if they seek to borrow larger amounts without having to service as large a monthly repayment amount as they would have to with a similarly sized PI loan.

In our existing RMBS portfolio, the average loan size of owner-occupier IO loans is AUD289,800, compared with AUD187,500 for PI loans.

In addition, the current loan-to-value ratio of owner-occupier IO loans is 2.1% higher than PI loans. IO loans are also paid off at a slower rate, as reflected by the fact that they are 5.1% in advance of their scheduled payment balance, compared with 6.5% for PI loans. Hence, owner occupier IO loans are larger, more leveraged and slower to amortize than PI loans.

Accordingly, once interest rates rise from their current record low levels, any issues owner-occupier IO loan borrowers have with servicing their mortgages will be exacerbated, leading to higher delinquencies and defaults.

However, it is also important to note that some owner-occupier borrowers may be choosing IO loans simply to maintain a level of flexibility in managing their repayment obligations, rather than because of serviceability reasons. Given that interest rates are at record lows, these borrowers may feel comfortable in paying only the interest on their mortgages and using any remaining available funds for other purposes.

But, because these borrowers are making few, if any, principal repayments, their loan amounts will remain high relative to PI loans, leaving them more susceptible to payment shocks when interest rates rise.