According to a recent report, Australian capital cities are becoming more segregated along socioeconomic lines. And the trend is worst in Sydney. Inequality is rising.
The Conversation published: Our cities are widening the divide between the well-off and the rest. How can we turn this damaging trend around? Written by three researchers from the University of Sydney.
They talked about the so called “latte line”, the infamous, invisible boundary that divides Sydney between the more affluent north-east and the south-west. Historically, people north of the line enjoy better access to jobs and education, and can capitalise on rising property wealth. This has reinforced economic inequality.
Sydney emerged as the most segregated and unequal of the five cities. The latte line is getting stronger. Other cities also showed rising inequality.
Bad policy is creating a more and more unequal society. The traditional idea of Australia as an egalitarian society is dying. The property market is the problem, but Governments are ignoring the consequences, and focussing on “announcables” as we discussed yesterday. We need to do better!
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Whatever announcables may come from the Government, the truth is housing crisis in Australia is far from over.
As I discussed with Leith van Onselen on Tuesday, high migration is the root cause of the problem – a problem created by bad policy and ultra-high migration. Yet some are arguing we should import more construction workers to build more homes. Sounds like shoot ready aim, to me.
Sure it is true that as Australia’s housing affordability crisis worsens, governments are spending more on housing. But as a recent The Conversation article says, without coordinated action to increase supply, government grants will have little practical effect on house affordability anytime soon.
Victoria’s Andrews government has announced a suite of reforms (such as boosting social housing and making planning processes faster) in an effort to get 800,000 extra homes in Victoria over the next decade.
Federally, the Albanese government’s A$10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund, or HAFF, has passed the Senate with the help of the Greens, who supported the bill in exchange for another A$1 billion for social housing. And this year’s federal budget has expanded eligibility for the Home Guarantee Scheme so more people can buy a home with a smaller deposit. But is Australia ready for a house construction boom?
Supply chain constraints say no. Ballooning construction costs and labour shortages have already claimed well-known building firms across the country. Delivering thousands of extra new homes in the coming years will not be easy.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Last week, the departing RBA Central Bank Governor Philip Lowe used his final public comments given at the Anika Foundation to defend his more controversial comments, saying while some of his explanations had “missed the mark” the media also had a responsibility to avoid “clickbait”.
But he also highlighted the limitations of monetary policy and suggested that fiscal and monetary policy could be better connected than today, something which should have been considered by the recent RBA review.
So today we look at what he said, and will also touch on where Central Bank Governors go after they leave their post.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
The Limitations Of Monetary Policy (And What Lowe Does Next...)
Last week, the departing RBA Central Bank Governor Philip Lowe used his final public comments given at the Anika Foundation to defend his more controversial comments, saying while some of his explanations had “missed the mark” the media also had a responsibility to avoid “clickbait”.
But he also highlighted the limitations of monetary policy and suggested that fiscal and monetary policy could be better connected than today, something which should have been considered by the recent RBA review.
So today we look at what he said, and will also touch on where Central Bank Governors go after they leave their post.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The recent release of 2021 Census data revealed a shocking “one million homes were unoccupied”.
This statistic sent housing commentators, government agencies and policymakers into a spin. At a time of significant housing shortages, this extra million homes would surely make a big difference. They could provide housing for some homeless, ease the rental affordability crisis, and get first-home owners into their first home. There has been a great deal of speculation about how this has happened. Has it been caused by overseas millionaires buying up housing and leaving it as an empty investment? Is it Airbnb taking up homes that could be used for families? Or are cashed-up Gen-Xers double-consuming by living in one house while renovating another?
So, why were 1,043,776 dwellings empty on census night?
“Global carbon dioxide emissions have bounced back after COVID-19 restrictions and are likely to reach close to pre-pandemic levels this year, our analysis released today has found.
The new numbers vividly illustrate the global challenge posed by decades of delayed climate policy and investment. To meet the 2050 goal of the Paris Agreement, which calls for limits to warming temperatures, nations would now have to cut emissions every year by an amount greater than the combined carbon output of Germany and Saudi Arabia.
The troubling finding comes as the COP26 climate talks continue in Glasgow in a last-ditch bid to keep dangerous global warming at bay. The analysis was undertaken by the Global Carbon Project, a consortium of scientists from around the world who produce, collect and analyse global greenhouse gas information.
The fast recovery in CO₂ emissions, following last year’s sharp drop, should come as no surprise. The world’s strong economic rebound has created a surge in demand for energy, and the global energy system is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels”.
The current structure of finance and its interlock with society based on debt creation and financialisation is not working effectively – as the current market gyrations indicate, and as we face into an extensional crisis. So far the solutions are to grow debt more, cut rates and let Central Banks build their balance sheets (and buy assets from Government bonds and beyond). But there comes a point where we need to think more deeply about what is happening and what needs to change. So in coming days, I will be featuring some of the different alternative approaches.
One approach which I have been examining is called Economic Democracy. There was an excellent post from The Conversation a few months back, which is now more relevant than ever. Andrew Cumbers, Professor of Regional Political Economy, University of Glasgow writes:
We need to fundamentally fix the way we run our economies and hand economic power back to the people. I believe this can – and must – be done through a concept called economic democracy. As I outline in a forthcoming book, The Case for Economic Democracy, it is key to transitioning toward a more socially just and ecologically sustainable system.
In the past, people have tended to think
about the idea of economic democracy in quite a restricted sense. They
have focused on developing the collective voice of employees through
trade unions and collective bargaining. Or concentrated on cooperative
or employee ownership policies. While these remain important, my colleagues and I argue that an expanded definition is needed, one that forces us to think afresh about how we might radically democratise the economy as a whole.
In this respect, I argue that there are
three critical interlocking pillars to economic democracy: individual
economic rights, diverse forms of democratic collective ownership of
companies, and the need for greater public participation in economic
decision-making.
The economic democratic deficit
There is plenty of mainstream media commentary about a global crisis of liberal democracy, the deepening divide between elites and citizens, and the opportunism of faux “outsiders” such as Trump and Johnson (themselves from wealthy elites). But there is seldom much discussion of the underlying economic fundamentals.
A common feature of disaffected voters is
anger toward the excesses of economic globalisation, which was pursued
by centre-left and centre-right politicians of the 1990s. The theory ran
that reducing the restrictions on business and finance operating across
borders – and, in the EU’s case, a single market with freedom of
movement for both business and workers – would be good for us all.
But that has not been the experience for
many. The collapse of well paid and unionised industrial jobs in Europe
and North America, and the shift of work to China and other developing
countries, has fuelled a reaction against globalisation.
Or at least against globalisation in its neoliberal, free trade
variant. Economic nationalists such as Trump and Victor Orban in
Hungary, have capitalised on this reaction.
This has fuelled a sense of alienation and
loss of control among ordinary people. The threat posed to work by
further automation is likely to further depress everyday life, adding grist to the mill of populists.
Brexit and the broader rise of right-wing
populism show the limitations of democracy under the existing
capitalist system. Politically, voters are asked every few years to
choose from a limited range of options and then leave everything else in
the hands of their political representatives.
In economic terms, people have a
diminishing sense of control over the key activities and events that
shape their lives. The proliferation of zero hours contracts and casual
work, and the decline of stable permanent employment have disconnected many from secure jobs and incomes.
In the workplace itself, employees have little say over their companies’ decision-making process. Trade unions are in retreat and what limited collective bargaining we have is under attack in most large developed economies.
There is still a tradition of cooperatives and employee-owned
enterprises nominally committed to democratic practice (though often
sadly lacking in reality). But even these are marginal to the dominant
corporate and privatised economy.
In short, ordinary citizens have very
little say in how the capitalist economy works. This applies at the
macro level – how the economy as a whole functions, who controls it and
makes the key decisions on investment, what to produce, how and what to
tax, what to regulate and what is produced. And it applies at the
individual level of accessing economic resources to lead decent lives,
in a way that is fair to others and sustainable in caring for the planet
and future generations. Both are critical matters of concern.
This is the backdrop for understanding the
growing popularity of alternative economic policies that seek to give
workers and citizens real power and control over their livelihoods. In
the UK, the Labour party’s policies to reverse privatisation and create
new more democratic forms of public ownership are massively popular. A recent opinion poll
by the right-wing Legatum Institute think tank found 83% of respondents
favoured nationalisation of water companies, 77% for electricity and
gas, and 76% for train services.
Even in the US, where there is traditional
hostility to ideas seen as “socialist”, public opinion appears to be
shifting. A poll carried out by Washington-based think tank the Democracy Collaborative
discovered that 55% of people supported the idea of employee ownership
funds, while only 20% were opposed. The idea that workers should have
the first right to buy their companies when they comes up for sale had
69% support.
But what should this look like in
practice? Unlike older visions of economic democracy that started with
class or the collective, my starting point is the individual. We should
all have the right to participate in a democratic society on equal
terms.
Nobel Prize winning economist Amartya Sen has emphasised
that individual economic freedom is only possible where citizens have
the resources, competence and capability to flourish. Rather than the
restricted choice of whatever the market is offering, it is important to
create a sense of economic citizenship, one that provides all people
with the resources and capability to make meaningful life choices.
An important mechanism for doing this is
to provide everyone with a universal basic income that would cover their
essential living requirements: food, shelter and clothing. This idea
has provoked plenty of controversy with enthusiasts and detractors on
the left and right.
Right wing proponents, such as Milton Friedman, support it because they think it could allow governments to cut welfare services elsewhere. Others reject it for creating indolence and dependency.
If everyone was given an income, why would anybody turn up for work?
Many trade unionists and social democrats don’t like the idea because
they think it would shift focus away from workplace rights and public services, allowing further attacks from the right.
The more substantive research suggests
little evidence that labour market participation falls when UBI is
introduced, although some people take the opportunity to reduce hours
for positive reasons such as spending more time with family and
volunteering. Meanwhile, the biggest positives tend to be improvements
in the physical and mental health of participants and the greater
likelihood of young people staying on for longer in education.
In response to fears on the left, UBI
should not be viewed as a standalone policy but rather part of a
progressive agenda of fairer taxation, living wage rates, reducing working hours and strengthening employment rights. Framed this way, the idea has much appeal in providing people with real choices.
It would also change the balance of power
in the labour market. Rather than coercing people into poorly paid and
inhumane forms of work, employers would also be forced to make work more
attractive and rewarding.
Democratic collective ownership
Under a proper economic democracy, the
individual should also have ownership rights and control over the work
they do and how it is used. Under capitalism, once we enter employment,
we effectively sell the right to own and control our labour to
employers. The workplace becomes a managerial dictatorship.
Many thinkers since the 19th century, from Karl Marxto liberals
such as John Stuart Mill, have recognised that this is unjust. People
have a basic right to control their labour and any benefits that accrue
from it, whether that’s in the form of income or profit.
Work is a social activity, not an
individual one. It involves interaction and cooperation with others.
Recognising this, my second pillar of economic democracy is collective,
diverse and democratic forms of ownership. This is very different to the
existing dominance of shareholder capitalism, where companies are privately controlled and largely subject to the whims of the market.
Similarly, while plans to take privatised
utilities back into public ownership are important, these entities need
to be run along much more democratic lines than in the past. Many older
and existing forms of public ownership have been too removed from public control,
run by elite officials or boards composed of private sector interests
rather than giving the public themselves a role in decision-making. The
BBC is a good example of this, set up as a corporation on behalf of the
pubic, who in reality have little say over how it is run.
As well as providing democratic
participation for workers, it’s also important to include users of
public services in the way they are run. There are different ways of
achieving this and plenty of good examples from around the world of how happens in practice.
For example, when the French city of
Montpelier de-privatised its water system, taking it back into public
ownership in 2016, it set up a water observatory, a citizens forum with
the power to scrutinise and hold the new public enterprise to account. It also drew 30% of its board from civil society organisations.
Another interesting example of a more
hybrid form of democratic public ownership comes from Costa Rica. Here,
the country’s third largest bank, the Banco Popular is a public enterprise that is legally owned by the country’s workers, with 1.2 million members (20% of the total population).
To own a share, a worker needs to have had
a savings account with the bank for one year. The key governing body of
the bank is a democratic assembly of 290 elected representatives, which
determines the bank’s strategic direction. A quarter of the bank’s
revenues fund social projects and it has played an increasingly
important role in the country’s rapid expansion of renewable energy,
including financing the first Latin American energy supplier to become
carbon neutral.
Beyond public services, other forms of
democratic collective ownership (such as employee ownership, cooperative
or mutual societies) could play a greater role across the economy. The
Mondragon network of worker cooperatives in Spain’s Basque country is
inspirational for many because of its intense democratic ethos across
its workforce of more than 70,000. Workers in every cooperative have an
annual general assembly. On the basis of one member one vote, the
assembly approves the business plan and budget, and elects a governing
council (the board of directors).
Key ingredients in Mondragon’s continued success
include having its own bank, lots of cooperation across its network,
collective knowledge sharing and an emphasis upon lifelong learning
alongside job security. These are measures of public effectiveness and
social value that contrast strongly with the short-term, profit
maximisation mantra of privately-owned firms.
Part of the wider appeal of Mondragon is
the sense that its model can be transplanted elsewhere to create whole
ecosystems of worker-owned enterprises at the local and regional level.
These could stimulate interesting new initiatives that build the wealth
of communities in post-industrial places, from Cleveland in the US to
Preston in the UK.
Public participation and deliberation
Beyond extending economic rights to the
individual and at the business level, my third pillar requires greater
public participation and engagement at the macro level of the economy as
a whole. This would involve the public becoming more involved in
decisions about spending in the wider economy.
One well-researched phenomenon, for example, is the idea of participatory budgeting.
This is where governments devote a proportion of their budget directly
to citizens groups who are brought together in a series of deliberative
exercises to decide on investment priorities.
So far, this has only occurred at the
local level. But the results are overwhelmingly positive, both in
engaging citizens and in making more socially progressive investment
choices. Brazil, beginning with the southern city of Porto Alegre in the
late 1980s, has been a pioneer of the concept.
Regional assemblies of residents were set
up across the city to vote on priorities, which were then fed into
city-level planning. Participatory budgeting then spread throughout
Brazil with over 120 cities adopting it in the 1990s and 2000s. The idea
has also spread widely across the world. There are currently over 250 schemes in the US, with Chicago and New York being important centres.
Advocates of participatory budgets point
to how they increase the involvement of women and lower income groups in
democratic processes. When sustained over a longer time period, they
reduce corruption, improve transparency and public engagement, and
create better institutions that involve citizens more regularly into
governance processes. The evidence also suggests
that they lead to greater spending on health and education in poorer
areas of cities, significantly reduce infant mortality and are linked to
the growth of civil society organisations.
Struggling for economic democracy
There remain powerful vested interests
that will mobilise against more radical initiatives to democratise the
economy. Commercial interests have powerful resources to protect the
status quo. They can fashion superficial media narratives, that have
been notably successful in protecting fossil fuels and undermining efforts to tackle climate change.
But, if we are to confront the major
economic, social and ecological crises that face us, these interests
must be overcome to create a very different kind of global economy. This
needs democratic mechanisms that rebalance economic resources and
decision-making away from the rich and powerful toward the pursuit of
the common good, while safeguarding the planet for future generations.
As the examples here demonstrate, these ideas are not unworkable utopias
but existing forms of democratic economy.
The good news is our economy was performing better than had been thought in the lead-up to the bushfires and coronavirus. Via The Conversation.
Updated figures in Wednesday’s national
accounts show the economy grew 0.6% in the three months to September,
rather than the 0.4% previously reported, and a healthier-than-expected 0.5% in the three months to December.
Combined, these figures pushed annual
economic growth up above 2% to 2.2% for the first time in a year in
which it had been below 2% for the longest period since the global
financial crisis.
Annual GDP growth
Not to put too fine a point on it, it looks as if we were actually experiencing the the “gentle turning point” repeatedly promised by Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe.
As Lowe put it during the second half of last year:
After having been through a soft patch, a gentle turning point has been
reached. While we are not expecting a return to strong economic growth in the near term, we are expecting growth to pick up.
The figures show the economy began (gently) picking up after the Reserve Bank began cutting rates in June. Counting this week’s latest interest rate cut, it has cut four times.
But the coronavirus and the bushfires have consigned the turning point to history.
Negative growth now possible
Not for a minute does Treasurer Josh Frydenberg believe the economy continued to improve this quarter, the March quarter.
Reminded that the support package
promised by the prime minister will come too late for the three months
to March, and reminded that many businesses haren’t been able to trade
much, Frydenberg was asked to assess the risk the economy might now be
going backwards, a state of affairs that if it continued long enough
would be a recession.
He replied that the Treasury believes the
bushfires alone will shave 0.2 points from growth in the March quarter.
Added to that will be the risk from the spread of the coronavirus, which
he believes will be “substantial”.
Tonight (Wednesday) Frydenberg and
Treasury officials will take part in a phone hookup with other members
of the International Monetary Fund to discuss developments including
interest rate cuts in both Australia and the United States.
Treasury update on Thursday
The Treasury will finalise its estimate of
the impact of the coronavirus on March-quarter GDP later in the evening
and report it to a Senate estimates hearing beginning at 9am Thursday.
It means we will know the likely impact at about the same time as the treasurer.
To support retirees hurt by four near-consecutive rate cuts, the treasurer is considering cutting the deeming rate
– the rate investments are deemed to have earned for the purposes of
the pension income test. It’ll be the second deeming rate cut in the
space of a year and will make it easier for retirees earning very little
to remain on the pension.
The focus of the support package will
business investment, which slid an unexpected 1.1% in the final three
months of the year and 3.4% over the course of the year in defiance of
budget forecasts it would climb.
Standard of living slipping
Although not ruling out support for
householders, Frydenberg said mortgage holders had done well out of the
past four rate cuts. Households with A$400,000 mortgages could soon be
paying $3,000 less per year than they had in June.
Living standards, as measured by the
Reserve Bank’s preferred measure, real net national disposable income
per capita, went backwards in the December quarter, slipping 1.3%. Over
the year, it climbed just 1.2%.
Household spending recovered somewhat,
climbing 0.4% in real terms in the December quarter after inching ahead
only 0.1% in the September quarter.
Throughout the year to December, real
household spending grew 1.2% at a time when Australia’s population grew
1.5%. This means the consumption of goods and services per person went
backwards.
Government spending provided substantial
support. Over the year to December public spending on infrastructure
grew 4.1% in real terms.
Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack
said on Wednesday he would try and boost that by asking state and local
governments to bring forward whatever projects they could, to start work
in the next three to six months.
Recurrent government spending grew 5%.
Author: Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University