Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
Today we start a short series which will review the property market in 2016, and then look forward to 2017. We will start by looking at demand for property, then look at property and funding supply, before examining the risk elements in the market for both property owners, lenders and the broader economy. Remember that … Continue reading “The 2016 Property Market In Review”
The proportion of households in Australia who own a property is falling, more a renting, or living with family or friends. We track those who are “property inactive”, and the trend, over time is consistent, and worrying. It is harder to buy a property today, thanks to high prices, flat incomes and higher credit underwriting … Continue reading “The Problem Of Home Ownership”
The latest data on the yield from US 10 Year bond shows it remains above the pre-Trump level. Banks accessing the international financial markets will have to pay more and this is translating into upward pressure on mortgage rates in Australia. A number of local players have already lifted, and we expect more to come. … Continue reading “US 10 Year Yield Still Elevated”
Nice piece from ABC’s Michael Janda. The big controversy this week was whether Gen Ys should forgo some smashed avo to save up for a house. The commentariat took Bernard’s advice to millennials with more than a grain of salt — he was demolished on the statistical evidence by Greg Jericho and a raft of … Continue reading “Why Gen Y should hold off buying a home”
From The Conversation. Despite a relatively healthy supply-side picture for the general housing market, the expected trickle down of housing opportunities to low-income households in Australia has failed to materialise. The UK Department for Communities and Local Government boasted this year of a seven-year high in construction starting on new houses; in the 12 months … Continue reading “Can the private rental sector provide a secure, affordable housing solution?”
The latest edition of the Digital Finance Analytics Household Finance Confidence Index (FCI) to end September 2016 is released today. Using data from our household surveys we examine how households regard their overall financial position. The composite index rose from 95.8 in August to 97.2 in September, the highest reading for a couple of years, … Continue reading “Household Financial Confidence Improves, If You Hold Property”
The latest IMF Fiscal Monitor is called – Debt, Use it Wisely. It is salutary reading though nothing very new – readers of this blog will be aware we have been banging on about high debt for several years. But the latest report says that globally, the total of public and private debt is around … Continue reading “Drowning In Debt”
From The Real Estate Conversation. Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen has spoken about the decline in Australia’s housing affordability, saying we are ‘a nation that can no longer house its own children.’ Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen has delivered a passionate speech at left-leaning public-policy think tank, the McKell Institute, outlining the decline in the middle class in Australia, and listing worsening housing … Continue reading “Housing Affordability at ‘Crisis Levels’”
From The Conversation. The Coalition has scraped into a second term. How credible is its economic growth program, and what else should it do to strengthen growth? The good news is that the transition from the mining boom is proceeding about as well as should have been expected. It is true that national income per … Continue reading “What the government should do now: economic growth”
A snapshot of data from the RBA highlights the root cause of much of the economic issues we face in Australia. Back at the turn of the millennium, banks were lending relatively more to businesses than to households. The ratio was 120%. Roll this forward to today, and the ratio has dropped to below 60%. … Continue reading “Is The Root Cause Of High House Prices What You Think It Is?”