Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
Nine News asked me to run some analysis on potential forced property sales, which they ran in Perth, Melbourne and Sydney yesterday. Today I wanted to add some extra detail from our analysis and explain how we established the baseline and share some heat maps for some of the major urban centres. This is not … Continue reading “Calibrating Forced Property Sales”
We ran a live Q&A session last night, and discussed the late breaking news, update scenarios and further insights from our surveys, including mortgage stress and forced property sales. We also, for the first time revealed our analysis of where forced sales are emanating. Here is a Melbourne example. There is a significant correlation with … Continue reading “DFA Updated Scenarios And Estimated Forced Sales”
We are running an extra live stream event tonight at 20:00 Sydney, covering the latest finance and property news, and our latest analysis via our surveys. Here is the YouTube link: You can ask a question in real time via the YT chat, or sent a question to me beforehand by the DFA Blog message … Continue reading “Reminder: DFA Live Q&A On Property And Finance 20:00 Tonight”
The latest edition of the DFA household surveys, up to 31st March 2020 reveals in painful detail the impact of the current health emergency. Not that confidence was particularly strong beforehand, thanks to the high costs of living, and flat real incomes for several years. But the shock of the economic freeze, and rising joblessness … Continue reading “Household Financial Confidence Crashes”
You can join our podcast live tomorrow 12:30 on the link below. I reveal our latest mortgage stress results for March and discuss my latest scenario modelling. You can also ask a question live! https://t.co/yFRSadxyIL?amp=1 It will also be available afterwards on replay.
Westpac just released a revised economic outlook. Growth through 2020 is now estimated at 1.5% with minus 1% in the first half ( minus 0.7% and minus 0.3% respectively in the March and June quarters) and 2.5% in the second half. This is recession territory. Just last week they had set the forecast peak in … Continue reading “Westpac: Unemployment To 7%”
We have updated our scenarios, driven from our core market models. The drivers are rising unemployment, and business failure thanks to the impact of the virus. We discussed these scenarios in our live stream event last night. This is the full version with live chat. The show starts formally at 32 minutes. We estimate that … Continue reading “DFA Updated Property And Finance Scenarios”
The latest edition of our weekly finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. CONTENTS: 00:23 Introduction 01:00 World Bank Global Economics Prospects 04:10 US Jobs 05:30 US Markets 08:30 Gold 09:30 UK 10:25 Europe 11:05 China 11:20 Japan 12:05 Bitcoin 13:40 Australian Segment 13:40 Retail 15:10 Mortgage Stress 15:40 Building Approvals 16:00 … Continue reading “Sentiment Versus Fundamentals – The Property Imperative Weekly 11th January 2020 [Podcast]”
The latest edition of our weekly finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. CONTENTS: 00:23 Introduction 01:00 World Bank Global Economics Prospects 04:10 US Jobs 05:30 US Markets 08:30 Gold 09:30 UK 10:25 Europe 11:05 China 11:20 Japan 12:05 Bitcoin 13:40 Australian Segment 13:40 Retail 15:10 Mortgage Stress 15:40 Building Approvals 16:00 … Continue reading “Sentiment Versus Fundamentals – The Property Imperative Weekly 11th January 2020”
Following our recent update on household mortgage stress, it’s important to broaden our scope into other areas of household financial stress. Just as mortgage defaults rise, power disconnections rise too. In this report Mitch Grande examines the evidence. Mitchell is a recent Graduate of Politics, Philosophy, Economics (Honours) at the University of Wollongong and is … Continue reading “Pulling The Plug – The Tyranny Of Power Supply Disconnection”