Did You Know How Big The IO Mortgage Book Is?

OK, so there has been lots of noise about the Mortgage Interest Only Exposures the banks have, and both APRA and the RBA say they are potentially risky, compared with Principal and Interest Loans. We already showed that conservatively $60 billion of IO loans will fail current underwriting standards.   That is more than 10% of the portfolio.

But how many loans are interest only, and what is the value of these loans? A good question, and one which is not straightforward to answer, as the monthly stats from the RBA and ABS do not split out IO loans. They should.

The only public source is from APRA’s Quarterly Property Exposures, the next edition to December 2017 comes out in mid March, hardly timely. So we have to revert to the September 2017 data which came out in December. This data is all ADI’s with greater than $1 billion of term loans, and does not include the non-bank sector which is not reported anywhere!

They reported that 26.9% of all loans, by number of loans were IO loans, down from a peak of 29.8% in September 2015. They also reported the value of these loans were 35.4% of all loans outstanding, down from a peak of 39.5% in September 2015.

So, what does this trend look like. Well the first chart shows the value of loans in Sept 2017 was $549 billion, down from a peak of $587 billion in March 2017. The number of loans outstanding was 1.56 million loans, down from a peak of 1.69 million loans in December 2016.

If we plot the trends by number of loans and value of loans, we see that the value exposed is still very high.

Finally, the average loan size for IO loans is significantly higher at $347,000 compared with $264,300 for all loans. Despite the fall in volume the average loan size is not falling (so far).

The point is the regulatory intervention is having a SMALL effect, and there is a large back book of loans written, so the problem is risky lending has not gone away.

 

The rise and fall of interest only mortgages

From Bank Underground.

The interest-only product has undergone tremendous evolution, from its mass-market glory days in the run-up to the crisis, to its rebirth as a niche product. However, since reaching a low-point in 2016, the interest-only market is starting to show signs of life again as lenders re-enter the market.

The chart shows how in 2006, interest-only mortgages were used by borrowers in the UK to purchase a higher value property than they otherwise might have been able to afford with a capital or repayment mortgage. This was because monthly repayments were lower for the interest only mortgage, and relatively high Loan-to-value (LTV) ratios meant that a lower deposit was required.

The drawback was that borrowers needed enough funds to repay the entire capital outstanding at the end of the mortgage term.

Since the crisis, rules have come in requiring lenders to have credible repayment strategies for the capital outstanding, and implement stricter underwriting standards on affordability.

Accordingly, the interest-only product has evolved into a much more niche product (falling from 42% of new lending in 2007 to just 7% of lending in 2016), predominantly targeted at higher-income borrowers. The combination of shorter mortgage terms and low LTVs suggest that borrowers are now using the product as a source of cheap borrowing for other purposes, rather than solely for house purchase.

However more recently, there are signs that lenders are starting to expand interest-only lending again, which rose to £5.4bn in Q3 2017, a 45% increase on the previous year.

Bank Underground is a blog for Bank of England staff to share views that challenge – or support – prevailing policy orthodoxies. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the Bank of England, or its policy committees.

 

7:30 Does Interest Only Loans Problem

A segment on ABC 7:30 discussed the problem faced by many interest only mortgage holders as tighter lending standards bite, forcing some to higher payment P&I loans or to sell.

We discussed this issue some time back, and made an estimation that $60 billion of such loans are likely to fall foul of the tightening.

 

 

Westpac Updates On Capital And Asset Quality

Westpac has released its December 2018 (1Q18) Pillar 3 update, which highlights a strong capital position, and overall benign risk of loss environment. They also provided some colour on Interest Only Loans.

They say that the Common equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio 10.1% at 31 December 2017 down from 10.6% at September 2017. The 2H17 dividend (net of DRP) reduced the CET1 capital ratio by 70bps. Excluding the impact of the dividend, the CET1 ratio increased by around 20bps over the quarter.

Risk weighted assets (RWA) increased $6.1bn (up 1.5% from 30 September 2017) mainly in credit risk from changes to risk models and loan growth, partly offset by improved asset quality across the portfolio. Changes to risk models also contributed to an increase in the regulatory expected loss, which is a deduction to capital. Internationally comparable CET1 capital ratio was 15.7% at 31 December 2017, in the top quartile of banks globally.

Estimated net stable funding ratio (NSFR) was 110% and liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) was 116% which is well above regulatory minimums. They are well progressed on FY18 term funding, $15.4bn issued in the first four months. Westpac will seek to operate with a CET1 ratio of at least 10.5% in March and September under APRA’s existing capital framework and will revise its preferred range once APRA finalises its review of the capital adequacy framework.

The level of impaired assets were stable with no new large individual impaired loans over $10m in the quarter. Stressed assets to TCE 2bps lower at 1.03%. Australian mortgage delinquencies were flat at 0.67%. Australian unsecured delinquencies were flat at 1.66%.

The bulk of mortgage draw downs are in NSW and VIC, with an under representation in WA compared with the market.

90+ day delinquencies are significantly higher in WA, compared with other states, reflecting the end of the mining boom.

There is a rise in delinquencies for personal loans and auto-loans, compared with credit card debt.

Flow of interest only lending was 22% in 1Q18 (APRA requirement <30%). Investor lending growth using APRA definition was 5.1% and so comfortably below the 10% cap.

They provided some further information on the 30% cap.

The 30% interest only cap incorporates all new interest only loans including bridging facilities, construction loans and limit increases on existing loans.

The interest only cap excludes flows from line of credit products, switching between repayment types, such as interest only to P&I or from P&I to interest only and also excludes term extensions of interest only terms within product maximums. Product maximum term for Interest only is 5 years for owner occupied and 10 years for investor loans.

Any request to extend term beyond the product maximum is considered a new loan, and hence is included in the cap.

So does that mean I could get an P&I loan, then subsequently switch it to an IO loan, so avoid the cap?

Also they highlighted key changes in their interest only mortgage settings.

Note that investors are paying more than owner occupiers, and interest only borrowers are paying even more!

Will Your Interest Only Loan Get Refinanced?

The Australian Financial Review featured some of our recent research on the problem of refinancing interest only loans (IO).  Many IO loan holders simply assume they can roll their loan on the same terms when it comes up for periodic review.  Many will get a nasty surprise thanks to now tighter lending standards, and higher interest rates.  Others may not even realise they have an IO loan!

Thousands of home owners face a looming financial crunch as $60 billion of interest-only loans written at the height of the property boom reset at higher rates and terms, over the next four years.

Monthly repayments on a typical $1 million mortgage could increase by more than 50 per cent as borrowers start repaying the principal on their loans, stretching budgets and increasing the risk of financial distress.

DFA analysis shows that over the next few years a considerable number of interest only loans (IO) which come up for review, will fail current underwriting standards.  So households will be forced to switch to more expensive P&I loans, assuming they find a lender, or even sell. The same drama played out in the UK a couple of years ago when they brought in tighter restrictions on IO loans.  The value of loans is significant. And may be understated.

A few observations. ASIC in 2015, released a report that found lenders providing interest-only mortgages needed to lift their standards to meet important consumer protection laws. They identified a number of issues relating to bank underwriting practices. We would also make the point that despite the low losses on interest-only loans to date in Australia, in a downturn they are more vulnerable to credit loss.

In April this year we addressed the problem of IO loans.

Lenders need to throttle back new interest only loans. But this raises an important question. What happens when existing IO loans are refinanced?

Less than half of current borrowers have complete plans as to how to repay the principle amount.

Interest-only loans may seem like a convenient way to reduce monthly repayments, (and keep the interest charges as high as possible as a tax hedge), but at some time the chickens have to come home to roost, and the capital amount will need to be repaid.

Many loans are set on an interest-only basis for a set 5-year or 10-year  term, at which point the lender is required to reassess the loan and to determine whether it should be rolled on the same basis. Indeed, the recent APRA guidelines contained some explicit guidance:

For interest-only loans, APRA expects ADIs to assess the ability of the borrower to meet future repayments on a principal and interest basis for the specific term over which the principal and interest repayments apply, excluding the interest-only period

There is a strong correlation between interest-only and investment mortgages, so they tend to grow together. Worth reading the recent ASIC commentary on broker originated interest-only loans.

But if households are not aware they have IO loans in the first place, then this raises the systemic risks to a whole new level. The findings from the follow-up study by UBS, after their “Liar-Loans” report (using their online survey of 907 Australians who recently took out a mortgage – they claim a sampling error of just +/-3.18% at a 95% confidence level) are significant.

They say their survey showed that only 23.9% of respondents (by value) took out an interest only loan in the last twelve months. This compares to APRA statistics which showed that 35.3% of loan approvals in the year to June were interest only.

They believe the most likely explanation for the lack of respondents indicating they have IO mortgages is that many customers may be unaware that they have taken out an interest only mortgage. In fact, around 1/3 of interest only borrowers do not know that they have this style of mortgage.

 

More Warnings On The Sleeping Risks From Interest Only Loans

The SMH reported today on research from UBS suggesting that around one third of interest only mortgage holders are not aware of the fact that the loan will revert, normally at the end of 5 or sometimes 10 years to principal and interest only borrowing. A roll to a further IO period is not guaranteed.

We discussed a couple of years back, as well in this in October, Citi covered it a few months back, and last week we got Finder.com.au to discuss what borrowers might do; so there should be no surprise to readers of this blog.  This chart shows the estimated value of IO loans which will now fall due outside current lending criteria, based on our research.

This is an extract from the SMH article:

A third of customers with interest-only mortgages may not properly understand the type of loan they have taken out, which could put many in “substantial” stress when the time comes to pay their debt, UBS analysts warn.

Amid a regulatory crackdown on interest-only loans, a new report by analysts led by Jonathan Mott highlights the potential for repayment difficulties with this type of mortgage

Their finding is based on a recent survey conducted by the investment bank, which found only 23.9 per cent of 907 respondents had an interest-only loan, compared with economy-wide figures that show 35.3 per cent of loans are interest-only.

Mr Mott said he initially suspected the survey sample had an error, but now believed a “more plausible” reason was that interest-only customers did not properly understand their loan.

“We are concerned that it is likely that approximately one third of borrowers who have taken out an interest-only mortgage have little understanding of the product or that their repayments will jump by between 30 and 60 per cent at the end of the interest-only period (depending on the residual term),” he said.

You can read more about the risks from IO loans in our recent Property Imperative Report, free on request.

 

 

Westpac refunds $11 million to interest-only customers

ASIC says Westpac will provide 13,000 owner-occupiers who have interest-only home loans with an interest refund, an interest rate discount, or both. The refunds amount to $11 million for 9,400 of those customers.

The remediation follows an error in Westpac’s systems which meant that these interest-only home loans were not automatically switched to principal and interest repayments at the end of the contracted interest-only period.

As a result, affected customers did not start paying any principal on their loans at the time agreed with the bank, and now have less time to repay the principal amount of their loans. These customers would also have paid more in interest.

To remediate the affected customers, Westpac will now:

  • Refund the additional interest paid from when the loan was contracted to convert to principal and interest repayments
  • Discount the interest rate for the remaining term of the loan.

This remediation has been designed so that customers pay no more interest over the life of the loan than they would have if the system error had not occurred.

ASIC will monitor Westpac’s consumer remediation program to ensure it is meeting consumer requirements.

ASIC Acting Chair Peter Kell said banks must ensure proper systems processes and oversight, particularly when it affected important assets such as consumers’ homes:

‘Greater regulatory scrutiny of interest-only loans has led to improvements in how lenders are providing these loans, including in lenders identifying system errors.’

‘All banks should be reviewing their systems to ensure that they minimise the chance of any such errors occurring, and that any risks to customers are identified early. If past errors are identified, remediation needs to be timely, transparent and effective.’

Westpac is contacting all affected customers, however customers with questions about their loan or the remediation can contact Westpac on 1300 132 925.

ASIC and Westpac are continuing to discuss an appropriate remediation program for investor customers with interest-only loans affected by the same system error.

This has been a long-standing error and has affected some interest-only home loans for owner occupiers who had an interest-only loan with Westpac between 1993 and August 2016.

More information about interest-only home loans 

Interest-only home loans have an initial agreed interest-only period, commonly up to five years. During the interest-only period consumers only pay the interest on the amount borrowed. At the end of the interest-only period the loan reverts to a principal and interest loan, to repay the loan over the remaining term. Repayments increase at the end of the interest-only period.

ASIC’s MoneySmart website has information for consumers about

interest-only mortgages as well as an interest-only mortgage calculator to help consumers work out their repayments before and after the interest-only period.

Additional background

ASIC is undertaking a targeted review of interest-only home loans and provided an update on this review in 17-341MR ASIC update on interest-only home loans.

ASIC is reviewing whether other major lenders have experienced a similar issue.

In 2015, ASIC reviewed interest-only loans provided by 11 lenders and issued REP 445 Review of interest-only home loans (refer: REP 445), which made a number of recommendations for lenders to comply with their responsible lending obligations (refer: 15-297MR).

In 2016, ASIC reviewed the practices of 11 large mortgage brokers and released REP 493 Review of interest-only home loans: Mortgage brokers’ inquiries into consumers’ requirements and objectives (refer: REP 493). REP 493 identified good practices as well as opportunities to improve brokers’ practices.

What To Do When The Interest-only Period On Your Home Loan Ends

There is a sleeping problem in the Australian Mortgage Industry, stemming from households who have interest-only mortgages, who will have a reset coming (typically after a 5-year or 10-year set period). This is important because now the banks have tightened their lending criteria, and some may find they cannot roll the loan on, on the same terms. Interest only loans do not repay capital during their life, so what happens next?

Our friends at finder.com.au have put together this guide for households in this position, authored by Richard Whitten*.

Interest-only loans offer borrowers several years of very low mortgage repayments. However, there is always that fateful day when the interest-only period ends, and if you’re not prepared for that moment, it can really hurt. It’s a serious problem, with almost 1 million Australians already facing mortgage stress.

Many borrowers aren’t even aware of what it will mean financially when their loan switches from interest-only to principal and interest repayments. This makes interest-only loans a risky product, and it’s the reason why the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has been cracking down on interest-only lending.

Borrowers with interest-only loans need to be prepared for the day that their loan reverts. When that day comes, borrowers have three options.

Extend the interest-only period

You could try to extend the interest-only period. If you’ve crunched the numbers and you realise that you cannot meet the increased cost of principal and interest repayments, this could really help.

Of course, this is not a good position to be in and your lender could easily refuse your request. However, they probably don’t want to lose you as a customer, and if you’re facing genuine stress, it’s in both of your interests to come up with a solution.

But keep in mind that the bank always wins. Interest-only loans cost borrowers more in the long run compared to principal and interest loans and extending the interest-only period only adds to your overall mortgage costs.

Switch to the principal and interest period

You could opt to do nothing and your loan will revert to principal and interest repayments. However, you should definitely review your loan and your financial position before this happens. Make sure you calculate your new repayment amount so that you’re not caught out.

There are several advantages to this option: it requires the least amount of effort and by repaying the principal of your home loan you’ll finally be moving towards paying off your debt.

It also means that you’re building equity in your home. If you think about the equity in your home as a form of savings, those enormous monthly repayments don’t seem so bad.

But you do have one more option.

Refinance your home loan

You’re a customer, after all, and you’re not locked into your home loan. You could try to negotiate a better rate with your current lender or you could refinance to a completely new lender. This allows you to either switch to a new interest-only loan or find a principal and interest loan with a lower interest rate or better features.

Be sure to compare your interest-only options carefully and read the fine print on both your current loan and the one you’re planning to switch to. You might have to pay various discharge or early exit fees to leave your current home loan and application or establishment fees to begin your new one. You’ll need to balance these upfront costs with the potential long-term savings that come with a lower interest rate.

And as with most things in life, you just need to do your homework.

*Richard Whitten is a member of the home loans team at finder.com.au. His role is to explain all the complexities of the home loan industry in ways that help consumers make better life decisions.

Third Report On Banks Recommends Focus on IO Loan Pricing

Last Thursday, the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics released their third report on their Review of the Four Major Banks.  They highlight issues relating to IO Mortgage Pricing, Tap and Go Debt Payments, Comprehensive Credit and AUSTRAC Thresholds.

Looking back at the issues The Committee raised since inception in 2016, they have had a significant impact on the banks and again shows how the landscape is changing, outside of a Banking Royal Commission.  It also suggests The Commission will not necessarily deflect scrutiny!

Here are the key points from their report:

Since the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics commenced its inquiry into Australia’s four major banks in October 2016, the Government has announced significant reforms to the banking and financial sector to implement the committee’s recommendations.

The Treasurer requested that the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics undertake – as a permanent part of the
committee’s business – an inquiry into:

  • the performance and strength of Australia’s banking and financial system;
  • how broader economic, financial, and regulatory developments are affecting that system; and
  • how the major banks balance the needs of borrowers, savers, shareholders, and the wider community.

In November 2016, the committee published its first report, which followed the first round of hearings a year ago in October 2016. The report contained 10 recommendations to reform the banking sector, including calling for new legislation and other regulatory changes to improve the operation of the banking sector for Australian consumers. In a second report in April 2017, following hearings in March, the committee reaffirmed the 10 recommendations of its first report and made an additional recommendation in relation to non-monetary default clauses.

In the 2017 Budget, the Treasurer announced the Government would be broadly adopting nine of the committee’s 10 recommendations for banking sector reform. These recommendations include putting in place a one-stop shop for consumer complaints, the Australian Financial Complaints Authority (AFCA); a regulated Banking Executive Accountability Regime (BEAR); and, new powers and resources for the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) to investigate competition issues in the setting of interest rates. The government also adopted the committee’s recommendations in relation to establishing an open data regime and changing the regulatory requirement for bank start-ups in order to
encourage more competition in the sector.

The Committee’s Third Report makes the following recommendations to Government:

  • The committee is concerned by the increase in transaction costs merchants
    now face as a result of the shift to tap-and-go payments. These costs are
    ultimately borne by customers. If the banks do not act by 1 April 2018, regulatory action should be taken to ensure that merchants have the choice of how to process “tap and go” payments on dual network cards. At present merchants are forced to process these transactions through schemes such as Visa and MasterCard rather than eftpos. It is estimated that this forced processing costs merchants hundreds of millions of dollars in additional annual fees at present;
  • The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, as a part of its inquiry into residential mortgage products, should assess the repricing of interest‐only mortgages that occurred in June 2017;
  • Despite many commitments by banks in the past to implement CCR, little
    progress has been made. The Government should introduce legislation to mandate the banks’ participation in Comprehensive Credit Reporting as soon as possible; and
  • The Attorney‐General should review the major banks’ threshold transaction reporting obligations in light of the issues identified in the Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre’s (AUSTRAC) case against the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Interest Only Mortgage Loans

Specifically on the IO loan situation, while the banks’ media releases at the time indicated that the rate increases were primarily, or exclusively, due to APRA’s regulatory requirements, the banks stated under scrutiny that other factors contributed to the decision. In particular,banks acknowledged that the increased interest rates would improve their profitability. A key reason for such an improvement is that the major banks increased rates on both new and existing interest-only loans in June 2017. This is despite APRA’s interest-only measure only targeting new lending. As of 6 October 2017, analysts at CLSA estimated that the banks’ net interest margins increased by up to 12 bps following the rate increases announced in June and March.

The improvement in net interest margins is forecast to be so beneficial for Westpac that several analysts upgraded their outlook following the price announcements in June 2017.

The ACCC is currently conducting an inquiry into residential mortgage products. This inquiry was established to monitor price decisions following the introduction of the Major Bank Levy. As a part of this inquiry, the ACCC can compel the banks affected by the Major Bank Levy to explain any changes to interest rates in relation to residential mortgage products. The inquiry relates to prices charged until 30 June 2018.

The committee recommends that the ACCC analyse the banks’ internal documents to assess whether or not they are consistent with their statements in their June 2017 media releases and subsequent public commentary. In particular, the ACCC should analyse the banks’ decisions to increase interest rates on existing borrowers despite APRA’s measure only targeting new borrowers. Further, the ACCC should consider whether the banks’ public statements adequately distinguish between new and existing borrowers. The ACCC should consider whether the media statements suggest rates on existing interest-only mortgages rose as a direct consequence of APRA’s regulatory requirement. It will be important that the ACCC conducts granular analysis of the financial modelling of the banks. The ACCC will need to understand the true financial impact on the banks of APRA’s regulatory changes, and assess that impact against the public statements of the banks.

Aussies lose interest in interest-only home loans

Despite a crackdown by regulators and a continuing low-interest rate environment, it appears Australians are naturally cautious when it comes to interest-only home loans. Research from Gateway Credit Union (Gateway), reveals 46 per cent of Australians are Adamant Decliners of interest-only home loans.

The findings, from Gateway’s Mortgage Holders Sentiment Report 2017, shows:

  • Adamant Decliners (46 per cent) would not consider using interest-only loans due to the perception that they increase debt.
  • A further quarter of respondents (25 per cent) are Resistant Approvers, acknowledging the benefits of interest-only loans yet choosing not to utilise them.
  • While around one in ten (11 per cent) consider themselves Hesitant Compliers, viewing interest only home loans as bad but still utilising them regardless.
  • With almost one in five (18 per cent) associating themselves as Enthusiastic Users, indicating they have used an interest-only home loan because they increase cash flow.

Gateway CEO, Paul Thomas, says the results suggest we are becoming more astute when it comes to our mortgages.

“It’s encouraging to see so many Australians are wary of the dangers around interest-only home loans. While they do serve a purpose for some borrowers, the reality is for many the interest-only home loan can create a precarious situation. Especially if borrowers enter the loan without considering if they can service it once the interest-only period ends.

“With the regulatory limits placed on banking institutions earlier in the year to restrict interest-only loan growth to below 30 per cent, it will become more difficult for borrowers to obtain an interest-only loan. This may be problematic for refinancers in particular, who are looking to refinance to interest-only again and haven’t factored in principal and interest repayments,” said Mr Thomas.

Of the generations, Baby Boomers are most likely to be Adamant Decliners and therefore, less likely to use interest-only products. While Gen Y are most likely to be Enthusiastic Users.

“When it comes to the different generations, it makes sense that younger cohorts are more accepting of interest-only home loans. Many younger Australians are finding it difficult to break into the property market or are at a stage of life – such as starting a family – when they need more cash flow. An interest-only home loan would afford them more flexibility with their finances, suggesting their acceptance may be a result of necessity,” commented Mr Thomas.

Since 2015, the number of Adamant Decliners among mortgage holders has risen by 5 per cent, while Enthusiastic Users among mortgage holders has declined by 4 per cent. Resistant Approvers and Hesitant Compliers remain similar, proportionally.

“Taking out an interest-only home loan may seem like an attractive option, particularly in a low interest rate environment. However, we urge borrowers to use this opportunity to pay down their home loan as much as possible, especially before the RBA begins to raise the cash rate, which many experts predict will happen in the next few months.

“Borrowers might be drawn to the lower repayments during the interest-only period, but they must remember if they aren’t making principal and interest repayments, they effectively are not reducing their debt. If you’re thinking about taking an interest-only home loan, we can’t stress the importance of making sure you can service the loan when it jumps to principal and interest repayments,” concluded Mr Thomas.

About the research

The Gateway Credit Union Mortgage Holder Sentiment Report 2017 is the collation of data gained through a quantitative survey conducted through an online panel. The survey was in field from 12th September to 18th September 2017, obtaining 1,030 completes. The survey sample was nationally representative of Australians over the age of 18 across age, gender and states in Australia.