Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
Australia’s trend unemployment rate remained steady in January 2019 at 5.1 per cent, from a revised December 2018 figure, according to the latest information released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said: “The unemployment rate has remained at 5.1 per cent for a second month, supported by strong participation … Continue reading “Trend Unemployment Rate Steady At 5.1%”
The Senate has initiated an inquiry into the structural separation of the banks, following the Hayne report, and the bill represented to the chamber. I discuss the critical issues surrounding this with businessman John Dahlsen, who was a director at ANZ for many years. John and I were both mentioned in the Hansard on this … Continue reading “Structure Is A Dirty Word (Podcast)”
The Senate has initiated an inquiry into the structural separation of the banks, following the Hayne report, and the bill represented to the chamber. I discuss the critical issues surrounding this with businessman John Dahlsen, who was a director at ANZ for many years. John and I were both mentioned in the Hansard on this … Continue reading “Structure Is A Dirty Word”
The trend Wage Price Index (WPI) rose 0.5 per cent in December quarter 2018 and 2.3 per cent through the year, according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Growth remains anemic. The trend quarterly rise of 0.5 per cent continues an extended period of moderate hourly wage growth. Annually, private … Continue reading “Are Wages Stirring? Really?”
The Foreign Investment and Review Board (FIRB) published their annual report for 2017-2018. In 2017-18, there were declines in approvals by both number and proposed investment value for both residential and non-residential sectors. For the first time since 2012–13, the United States surpassed China as the largest source country for approved proposed investment due to … Continue reading “Chinese Residential Investment Wanes”
S&P Ratings released their SPIN to December 2018, an assessment of the risks in Australian Residential Backed Mortgage Securitisation Pools. Overall we see a further rise in delinquencies, other than in Tasmania. Significantly the 90 day plus arrears are rising, as predicted by our mortgage stress analysis as the slow roasting of mortgage borrowers continues. … Continue reading “More Evidence Of Mortgage Delinquencies Rising”
In an ASX announcement, National Australia Bank Limited confirmed arrangements for outgoing Group CEO Andrew Thorburn and interim Group CEO Philip Chronican. Mr Thorburn has resigned and will finish at NAB on 28 February 2019. In accordance with his contractual entitlements, Mr Thorburn will receive payment of $1,041,449 in lieu of 26 weeks’ notice, along … Continue reading “NAB Confirms CEO Exit”
Property in the UK is reeling from the Brexit uncertainty, creating a buyers market, even in the expensive London sector, according to the latest report from LonRes, a London based estate agent. In Prime Central London: -6% in Q4 2018; and -14% from their 2014 peak. In slightly cheaper Prime London districts: -5% in 2018. … Continue reading “London Now A “Buyers Market””
This is the edited version of our live stream event where we discuss our latest scenarios and a range of finance and property questions. Live recording and chat can be found at: https://youtu.be/BNrTHJ2MWjo
We have updated our scenarios to take account of a range of new data, and the latest input from our household surveys. A peak to trough fall of 20-30% over 2-3 years remains our base case, but with risks to the downside. On the other hand the RBA’s base case gets only a 1% probability … Continue reading “DFA Updates Property Price Scenarios”
