Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
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Its the last day of January, so the RBA has released their credit aggregates to the end of December 2019 and APRA released their latest modified Monthly Authorised Deposit-taking Institution Statistics. Looking at the RBA data first, over the past month housing credit stock (the net of new loans, repaid loans and existing loans) rose … Continue reading “Credit Growth Stirs, Perhaps…”
The Fed kept the cash rate on hold, and there was little change to the commentary, other than a slightly weaker set of words surrounding the consumer. Growth in household spending moderated toward the end of last year, but with a healthy job market, rising incomes, and upbeat consumer confidence, the fundamentals supporting household spending … Continue reading “Fed Holds Cash Rate (As Expected)”
Jonathan Kearns The RBA’s Head of Financial Stability spoke at Business Forum at the 32nd Australasian Finance and Banking Conference. Banks have a central role in facilitating activity in modern economies. While that role is just as important today as it was prior to the financial crisis, the nature of banking has changed. And given … Continue reading “Changes in Banking”
We are releasing the results of our rolling household surveys, which were completed before the latest round of bushfires started raging. Nevertheless, the results are a concern because the total number of households registering as financially stressed rose again, to 32.7% of borrowing households. This represent 1.1 million households across the country and a predicted … Continue reading “Mortgage Stress Shoots Higher In December”
Australia is in the midst of a bushfire crisis that will affect local communities for years, if not permanently, due to a national crisis of underinsurance. Via The Conversation. Already more than 1,500 homes have been destroyed – with months still to go in the bushfire season. Compare this to 2009, when Victoria’s “Black Saturday” … Continue reading “The Underinsurance Crisis”
RBA’s minutes out today. Clear signals of more action next year, despite the perceived gentle turning point. Financial Markets Members noted that interest rates were very low around the world, with a number of central banks having eased monetary policy over recent months in response to downside risks to the global economy and subdued inflation. … Continue reading “RBA Minutes: “A Gentle Turning Point”!”
MYEFO has been released, and as expected the Government is still forecasting a surplus, this year down from $7.1 billion to $5 billion, but still a surplus for the first time in 12 years. The surplus for 2020/21 is now seen at $6.1 billion instead of $11 billion as previously estimated. Tax receipts are down … Continue reading ““Reality” Hits The Budget, Sort Of…”
The IMF published their latest preliminary findings at the end of an official IMF staff visit (or ‘mission’) to Australia. They recommend preparing for risk from a rapid housing credit upswing, by introducing loan-to-value and debt-to-income limits, and possibly a sectoral countercyclical capital buffer targeting housing exposures. Plus transitioning from a housing transfer stamp duty … Continue reading “IMF On Australia: Risk To The Outlook Remains Tilted To The Downside”
Saxo Bank 2020 Outrageous Predictions: Saxo Bank, a leading global multi-asset facilitator of capital markets products and services, has today released its 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2020. The predictions focus on a series of unlikely but underappreciated events which, if they were to occur, could send shockwaves across financial markets. While these predictions do not constitute Saxo’s official market forecasts for 2020, they … Continue reading “The reign of disruption continues as global central banks and governments lose control”
Governor Philip Lowe spoke at the Australian Economists Dinner last night. In many ways, little new here, but the RBA thinks the zero bounds cash rate is 0.25%, and QE is an option, but only in a crisis. “There may come a point where QE could help promote our collective welfare, but we are not … Continue reading “RBA On Unconventional Monetary Policy”