Tag: Mortgage Stress

Greater Sydney Mortgage Stress Mapping – Nov 2017

Having released our November Mortgage Stress analysis, we now look across the states in more detail. Today we look at NSW and Greater Sydney.

NSW has 251,576 households in stress, up 9,000 from last month, and we estimated there are around 13,900 households at risk of default over the next 12 month in the state.

Here is the stress mapping around Great Sydney of the count of households in difficulty. We see a swathe of issues across Western Sydney.

The post code with the highest count of stressed household is 2170, the area around Liverpool, Warwick Farm and Chipping Norton, which is around 27 kilometers west of Sydney. There are 6,807 households in mortgage stress here. The average home price is $803,000 compared with $385,000 in 2010. There are around 27,000 families in the area, with an average age of 34. The average income is $5,950. 36% have a mortgage and the average repayment is about $2,000 each month.

Next is the area around Campbelltown, 2560, which is around 43 kilometers inland from Sydney. Here 5,786 households are in mortgage stress. The average home price is $625,000, up from $320,000 in 2010. Around 20,000 households live in the area with an average age of 34 years. The average income is $6,100 a month. 37% have a mortgage and the average repayment is higher than the national average at $1,800.

We continue to see mortgage stress still strongly associated with fast growing suburbs, where households have bought property relatively recently, often on the urban fringe. The ranges of incomes and property prices vary, but note that it is not necessarily those on the lowest incomes who are most stretched. Banks have been more willing to lend to these perceived lower risk households but the leverage effect of larger mortgages has a significant impact and the risks are underestimated.

Next, here is the overall listing of the top 10 most stressed post codes across New South Wales as at the end of November 2017. We also show the relative default risk ranking across the country. We will explore risk of default further in a later post, not least because we get different distributions depending on whether we look at the number of defaults, or the absolute value at risk.

Meanwhile, in our next stress-related post, we will look at Victoria.

Mortgage Stress Continues On a High Plateau In November

Digital Finance Analytics has released the November mortgage stress and default analysis update. Across Australia, more than 913,000 households are estimated to be now in mortgage stress (last month 910,000) and more than 21,000 of these in severe stress, the same as last month. Stress is sitting on a high plateau. This equates to 29.4% of households. We see continued default pressure building in Western Australia, as well as among more affluent household, beyond the traditional mortgage belts across the country. Stress eased a little in Queensland, thanks to better employment prospects.

We estimate that more than 52,000 households risk 30-day default in the next 12 months, similar to last month. We expect bank portfolio losses to be around 2.8 basis points, though with losses in WA rising to 4.9 basis points.

We discuss the findings from our analysis and count down the top 10 post codes, to identify the most highly stressed post code currently in the country.

As continued pressure from low wage growth and rising costs bites, those with larger mortgages are having more difficulty balancing the family budget. As a result, risks in the system continue to rise, and while recent strengthening of lending standards will help protect new borrowers, there are many households currently holding loans which would not now be approved. These stressed households are less likely to spend at the shops, which will act as a further drag anchor on future growth, one reason why retail spending is muted. The number of households impacted are economically significant, especially as household debt continues to climb to new record levels. Mortgage lending is still growing at three times income. This is not sustainable. The latest household debt to income ratio is now at a record 193.7.[1]

Our analysis uses the DFA core market model which combines information from our 52,000 household surveys, public data from the RBA, ABS and APRA; and private data from lenders and aggregators. The data is current to end November 2017. We analyse household cash flow based on real incomes, outgoings and mortgage repayments, rather than using an arbitrary 30% of income.

Households are defined as “stressed” when net income (or cash flow) does not cover ongoing costs. Households in mild stress have little leeway in their cash flows, whereas those in severe stress are unable to meet repayments from current income. In both cases, households manage this deficit by cutting back on spending, putting more on credit cards and seeking to refinance, restructure or sell their home.  Those in severe stress are more likely to be seeking hardship assistance and are often forced to sell.

The forces which are lifting mortgage stress levels remain largely the same. In cash flow terms, we see households having to cope with rising living costs whilst real incomes continue to fall and underemployment remains high. Households have larger mortgages, thanks to the strong rise in home prices, especially in the main eastern state centres. While mortgage rates remain quite low for owner occupied borrowers, those with interest only loans or investment loans have seen significant rises.  We expect some upward pressure on real mortgage rates in the next year as international funding pressures mount, a potential for local rate rises and margin pressure on the banks. We revised our expectation of potential interest rate rises, given the stronger data on the global economy and the recently announced Finance Sector  Royal Commission.

Probability of default extends our mortgage stress analysis by overlaying economic indicators such as employment, future wage growth and cpi changes.  We have also extended our Core Market Model to examine the potential of portfolio risk of loss in basis point and value terms. Losses are likely to be higher among more affluent households.

Gill North, Joint DFA Principal and Professorial Research Fellow in the law school at Deakin University, said “the numbers of households in mortgage and financial stress in Australia are at record levels and the consequential risks and likely adverse impacts are difficult to overstate. When external events and or the personal circumstances of these highly indebted households deteriorate, the number of people who cannot afford to rent or purchase a home is likely to increase exponentially, leaving many more households without adequate accommodation. In extreme instances, other households may lose the residential property they presently live in due to rental defaults or a forced sale or foreclosure.”

While there have been numerous inquiries into housing affordability and homelessness in Australia, the issues involved are complex, and real progress has been limited (at best). For policy options to make any meaningful difference to the nature and scale of housing affordability and homelessness, policy makers and others need to acknowledge the sheer magnitude of the problem, and respond accordingly.

One of the options that policy makers have considered to address affordable housing issues and to provide housing for the most vulnerable sections of the community is the use of social impact investment.  Gill North was part of a team that reviewed the potential for impact investment models to provide housing for the vulnerable and reported to the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI). The report on “Supporting Vulnerable Households To Achieve Their Housing Goals: The Role Of Impact Investment” is available from https://ssrn.com/author=905894. The report authors acknowledge and thank AHURI for the funding that allowed this important research”.

By the Numbers

Regional analysis shows that NSW has 251,576 households in stress (242,399 last month), VIC 253,248 (250,259 last month), QLD 157,019 (162,726 last month) and WA 123,849 (121,393 last month). The probability of default rose, with around 9,800 in WA, around 9,600 in QLD, 13,000 in VIC and 13,900 in NSW.

The largest financial losses relating to bank write-offs reside in NSW ($1.3 billion from Owner Occupied borrowers) and VIC ($870 million from Owner Occupied Borrowers, which equates to 2.1 and 2.7 basis points respectively. Losses are likely to be highest in WA at 4.9 basis points, which equates to $682 million from Owner Occupied borrowers and $108 million from Property Investors over the next 12 months.

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[1] RBA E2 Household Finances – Selected Ratios June 2017

What Does The Recent Bank Results Tell Us About Mortgage Defaults?

We have now had results in from most of the major players in retail banking this reporting season. One interesting point relates to mortgage defaults.  Are they rising, or not?

Below are the key charts from the various players. Actually, there are some significant differences. Some are suggesting WA defaults in particular are easing off now, while others are still showing ongoing rises.

This may reflect different reporting periods, or does it highlight differences in underwriting standards? Our modelling suggests that the rate of growth in stress in WA is slowing, but it is rising in NSW and VIC; and there is a 18-24 month lag between mortgage stress and mortgage default. So, in the light of expected flat income growth, continued growth in mortgage lending at 3x income, rising costs of living and the risk of international funding rates rising, we think it is too soon to declare defaults have peaked.

One final point, many households have sufficient capital buffers to repay the bank, thanks to ongoing home price rises. Should prices start to fall significantly, this would change the picture significantly.

Bank of Queensland

ANZ

CBA

Genworth

Westpac

Mapping The Mortgage Stressed Households In Greater Adelaide

Following our October 2017 Mortgage Stress update, here is a map of the count of households in mortgage stress in Greater Adelaide, using our Core Market Model.

Here is a list of the top 10 most stressed post codes in SA, by the number of households in stress.

Mapping The Mortgage Stressed Households In Greater Perth

Following our October 2017 Mortgage Stress update, here is a map of the count of households in mortgage stress in Greater Perth, using our Core Market Model.

Here is a list of the top 10 most stressed post codes in the WA, by the number of households in stress.

We will post similar maps and lists across the other states shortly.

Mapping The Mortgage Stressed Households In Greater Brisbane

Following our October 2017 Mortgage Stress update, here is a map of the count of households in mortgage stress in Greater Brisbane, using our Core Market Model.

Here is a list of the top 10 most stressed post codes in Queensland, by the number of households in stress.

We will post similar maps and lists across the other states shortly.

Mapping The Mortgage Stressed Households In Greater Melbourne

Following our October 2017 Mortgage Stress update, here is a map of the count of households in mortgage stress in Greater Melbourne, using our Core Market Model.

Here is a list of the top 10 most stressed post codes in the region, by the number of households in stress.

We will post similar maps and lists across the other states shortly.

Mapping The Mortgage Stressed Households In Greater Sydney

Following our October 2017 Mortgage Stress update, here is a map of the count of households in mortgage stress in Greater Sydney, using our Core Market Model.

Here is a list of the top 10 most stressed post codes in the region, by the number of households in stress.

We will post similar maps and lists across the other states shortly.

Mortgage stress soars to record highs as borrowers struggle with jumbo loans

From The Australian Financial Review.

The number of Australian families facing mortgage distress has soared by nearly 20 per cent in the past six months to more than 900,000 and is on track to top 1 million by next year, according to new analysis of lending repayments and household incomes.

That means net incomes are not covering ongoing costs in nearly 30 per cent of the nation’s households, up from about 25 per cent in May, the analysis by Digital Finance Analytics, an independent commentator, shows.

Stagnant incomes, rising costs, unemployment, the likelihood that rates are more likely to rise than fall mean the number of families struggling to make ends meet is expected to continue increasing, the analysis shows.

Lenders’ recent attempts to build market share by lowering underwriting standards is also expected to begin appearing in the numbers as households struggle to repay jumbo loans, it shows.

“Risks in the system will continue to rise,” Martin North, DFA principal, said. “The numbers of households impacted are economically significant,” “Mortgage lending is still growing at three times income. This is not sustainable.”

Brendan Coates, a fellow at the Grattan Institute, a public policy think tank, said: “Even a relatively small rise in the interest rates paid by households would crimp their spending.

“If interest rates increase by 2 percentage points,  mortgage payments on a new home will be less affordable than at any time in living memory, apart from a brief period around 1989 — an experience that scarred a generation of home-owners.”

Nearly 22,000 households, of which 11,000 are professionals or young affluent, are facing severe distress, which means they are unable to meet mortgage repayments from current income and are having to manage by cutting back spending, putting more on credit cards, refinance, or sell their home.

About 52,000 households risk 30-day default in the next 12 months, up 3000 from the previous month. A lender, or creditor, can issue a default notice to a borrower behind on debt.

Bank portfolio losses are expected to be around 3 basis points, rising to about 5 basis points in Western Australia.

Mr Coates said: “Growing household debt has made the Australian economy more vulnerable. But the debt situation is not as worrying as the aggregate figures suggest.

“Most debt is held by higher income households and Reserve Bank research shows that relatively few households have high loans-to-total-assets ratios.

“Stagnating house prices — still the most likely scenario over the next couple of years — wouldn’t be enough to significantly trouble the banks.”

Rather than a banking crisis, higher debts could cause a  rapid fall in household spending in the event of a downturn, he said.

“Household consumption accounts for well over half of gross domestic product. Recent Reserve Bank of Australia research shows that households with higher debts are more likely to reduce spending if their incomes fall,” he said.

Economists generally argue mortgage stress, stagnant income growth and low inflation  mean the Reserve Bank will be unlikely to raise interest rates any time soon.

But that could change if there was another disruption to international financial markets, such as the 2008 shock, which sharply increased banks’ funding costs and raised mortgage rates.